Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, April 2, 2013 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 1, 2013 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list shows some selected strong earnings stocks. Bulls be selective. Stock market holds up trend. Earnings reports will be critical. So, one needs to remain alert.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SMA - BELOW AVERAGE |
SMA, based in Warsaw, Ind., produces medical devices for spinal and dental problems. Annual revenues: $388 million. SMA's stock breaks out today from a 14 -week flat base. So far today, volume is running at 299,559 shares, more than double its normal daily volume.
TTD had featured SMA previously. The stock has a below average rating. However, with strong profits coming this year and next, TTD sees SMA with good potential to work well as a breakout.
Today, SMA's stock reemerged from its base by driving sharply higher. The stock ran up in the morning hitting an intraday peak of 12.31. It then pulled back and in the afternoon trended sideways. (See 10-minute chart)
SMA had a breakout in February, but fell back after a disappointing earnings forecast. So, this time it makes another shot at moving higher.
SMA's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks rising from $11.48 in the prior session to as high as $12.18 by noon on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,400 shares crossed the tape at $11.90. That was up sharply from the prior block at $11.58.
SMA makes medical devices for the medical market. They are used for orthopedic, spinal, trauma, dental, cardiovascular, and ophthalmology treatment. Their brands include Jet, Othy, PolyVac, Thornton and UltreXX.
SMA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 68% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
Also, one can notice the blue blocks showing strong insider buying. The setup is very bullish. The insider activity is a potentially good confirmation the breakout has a good chance of working.
SMA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2004 and trading around 20. The stock climbed to 25 in 2005. However, it fell back and in 2008. It got dragged lower due to the bear market. The stock bottomed around 4 in early 2009.
The breakout today also shows as a breakout from a long-term basing pattern. The only negative is that the stock has upside resistance. So, it has to prove itself in coming weeks if it can follow through to the upside.
SMA's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 7 back in August to a peak around 11 in early January.
The stock then put down a well formed flat base, broke out, but then fell back.
The stock, however, firmed up and regrouped with another base and today breaks out again.
The breakout today comes with a good widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. That shows strong and steady buying.
Analysts expect SMA to post a 45% jump in net for 2013. They are looking for 73 cents a share, up from 50 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 76 cents a share. T he stock has a p/e ratio of 16 which makes it a good value-growth play for an aggressive investor.
For the first quarter, earnings should jump 114% to 15 cents a share from 7 cent the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at 16 cents a share.
Going out to the second quarter, earnings should rise 54% to 19 cents a share from 12 cents the year before.
Looking ahead to 2014, analysts predict a 33% gain in net to 97 cents a share from the anticipated 73 cents for 2013.
Strategy Opinion: SMA is best suited for aggressive investors. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 15.50.
A protective stop can be placed near 10.40.
TTD rates SMA a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Average. A major buyer recently was 5-star rated TFS Market Neutral Fund which purchased 153,626 shares.
The largest fund holder is 2-star rated Ariel Investor Fund with a 6.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 72,474 shares.
SMA has 36.8 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 92% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been getting a lot of stock options. The price was not disclosed. Some insiders were recent sellers around $10.50. Currently, 4 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Symmetry Medical Inc. - (SMA) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 11 | 1 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMCSA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DVA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FMX - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks today considering stock market is up. Bears remain conservative. Stock market still in an up trend.
EZPW, based in Austin, Tex., operates pawn shops. Annual revenues: $1 billion. EZPW's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. A brokerage firm lowered its rating on the stock. So far today, EZPW is trading a heavy 720,542 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 206,000 shares.
TTD highlighted EZPW as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and hit an intraday low of 19.35. It then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to mount an effective rally.
EZPW's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $21.30 a few sessions ago to as low as $19.58.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 21,660 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape in the morning at $20. That was down from the prior block at $20.85.
EZPW operates pawnshops which function as sources of consumer credit and as specialty retailers of previously owned merchandise.
The company makes small, non-recourse loans secured by pledges of tangible personal property. The company contracts for a pawn service charge to compensate it for each pawn loan.
This fiscal year ending in September analysts are forecasting a 9% decline in EZPW's earnings to $2.58 a share from $2.84 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending in March should fall 16% to 64 cents a share from 76 cents a year ago.
EZPW's chart shows the stock gapping lower on expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line did not show any big drop. So, it would appear the downgrading came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EZPW for a drop to 15 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 20.80.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EZPW - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)