Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - April 5,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Friday - April 5, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  12

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls large list of breakouts with some interesting plays.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all time zones.

Comment -  Market continues to work higher. Early April tends to be weak with tax time coming up, but afterwards earnings will start to have a big impact.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Friday - none.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) - 30.91, up 1.31 - Breakpoint 30.68

Net To Soar 90% for Fiscal 2019 (March), TTD Targets 37

  BOOT, based in Irvine, Ca., makes and sells western footwear and clothes. Annual revenues: $678 million. BOOT's stock moves higher Friday and breaks out from its seven-week base.

  So far today, BOOT is trading a heavy 3.5 million shares, seven times its average daily volume of 578,000 shares.

  The stock got a boost when it was added to the S&P 600 index. That often brings in buying from index funds.

  TTD sees more on the upside.  TTD recently featured BOOT as a breakout stock, but it faded back into its base. The stock now reemerges.

  BOOT raced higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.

  The stock reached an intraday high of $$32.21 in the morning.

  The stock then drifted back but held above its breakpoint line.

   Tape Action

  BOOT's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from  $29.60 in the prior session to as high as $32 Friday.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 59,283 shares crossed the tape at $31.47.

  That was up from  the prior block trade at $29.60 on 5,507 shares late on Thursday.

    Business

  BOOT sells  western and work-related footwear and clothes for men, women and children.

 The company's stores are near neighborhood shopping centers and in malls.

 It sells denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories.

  It has 218 stores in 31 states.

   Charts

  BOOT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 78% versus an 8% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options a $5 to $9 a share.

  They were sellers at $23 to $29 a share recently.

   BOOT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2014 at $17.56. The stock climbed to an all-time high of $34.43 in 2015.

  However, it went into a dive and fell to an all-time low of $5.20 in 2016.  Since then the stock formed a bottom and has rallied.

  BOOT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from  $16 in December to a peak near $29 by February.

  he stock formed a base.

  It broke out five sessions ago, but then faded back into the base.

 Friday with the S&P news, BOOT gaps out of its base and through upside resistance.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

   Earnings Outlook

  This fiscal year ending in March analysts are forecasting a 90% surge in net to $1.33 a share from  the 70 cents the year before.

  The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 22.

  Profits for the fiscal fourth quarter should show a big 59% jump to 27 cents a share from  the 17 cents the year before.

  Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in March, the Street is predicting a 14% rise in net to $1.51 a share from the anticipated $1.33 a share for fiscal 2019.

  Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in June is expected to climb 27% to 19 cents a share from the 15 cents the year before.

  Seven analysts track the stock.

  The company tends to come in on Street estimates, or above.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting BOOT for a move to $37. A protective stop can be placed near $28.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  BOOT scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish -  BOOT rose 6 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bearish -  BOOT averaged a gain of 2.7% in April but a loss of 3.6% in May the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  1

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Only one short play Friday. Bears be conservative.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Duluth Holdings Inc.  (DLTH) - 17.60

Net Disappoints, TTD Sees Drop to 14.50

  DLTH, based in Mount Horeb, Wisc., sells men's and women's casual wear, workwear and accessories. Annual revenues: $471 million. DLTH's stock drops sharply Friday and rips through technical support.

  DLTH's drop was triggered by disappointing quarterly earnings.

  TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, DLTH is trading a heavy 6 million shares, 30 times its average daily volume of 196,000 shares.

  DLTH reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 to 64 cents a share. That was below the Streets' estimate of 75 cents a share.

  DLTH's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support. The stock then drifted lower the rest of the day. It finished near its low for the day. That is bearish.

   Tape Action

  DLTH's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $23.84 a few sessions ago to as low as $17.60.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 24,000 shares crossed the tape at $18.05.

  That was down from the prior block at $19.32 on 26,000 shares.

   Business

 DLTH sells Longtail T shirts, Buck Naked underwear and Fire Hose work pants. The company offers its products under the Duluth brand.

 The Company's Website, www.duluthtrading.com, serves as a storefront for its product assortment. It has 14 retail stores and two outlet stores.

The Company's products also include Ballroom jeans, Duluthflex clothing, Armachillo shirts, Dry on the Fly pants, Armachillo underwear and No-Yank Tank.

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020, analysts are forecasting a 40% jump in net to $1.01 a share from 72 cents the year before.

 The business is seasonal. For the fiscal first quarter ending in April analysts expect a loss of 3 cents a share compared with a loss of 2 cents the year before.   

Charts:  

  DLTH's daily chart shows the stock trending lower. Then the stock gaps lower with massive volume.

  DLTH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 10% versus an 8% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been sellers at $31 to $25 a share in recent months. They have not done any buying.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DLTH for a decline to $14.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $18.60.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  DLTH rose 3 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bearish. -   DLTH averaged a decline of 1.9% in April  and a decline of 0.2% in May the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)