By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout StocksTotal Buy Breakouts so far today - 20
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list remains large with energy stocks dominating. Stock market extended. Bulls be careful now and more conservative. Earnings season now begins. So, one must be alert.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROSE - AVERAGE
ROSE, based in Houston, is a producer of oil and gas. Annual revenues: $294 million. ROSE's stock breaks out today from a 5-week flat base and makes a 52-week high. The stock is moving into position to make an all-time high. It just needs to top 29.65, the stock's peak in 2008. So far today, ROSE is trading 1 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 554,000 shares.
TTD highlighted ROSE as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Tuesday.
A look at TTD's 5- minute chart shows ROSE pushing over its breakpoint in the morning. It showed good momentum continuing higher. It then eased back a bit in the afternoon.
The company said it will make a note offering to raise $200 million.
TTD's clip of the tape shows ROSE's big blocks. The price for the blocks climbed from $23.71 on April 1 to $25.77.
A key trade today was a big block of 49,700 shares that crossed at $25.83. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $24.76.
The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying interest.
ROSE ’s operations are concentrated in the areas of the Sacramento Basin of California, the Rockies, and South Texas. I
The company has non-core positions in the State Waters of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
During the year ended December 31, 2009, ROSE drilled 43 gross and 36 net wells, with a success rate of 83%. On February 4, 2009, the company acquired the remaining 10% working interest in the 1,280-acre position Pinedale Anticline in the Rockies.
ROSE is a leader. TTD's 12-month performance chart shows ROSE's stock soaring 310% compared with a 40% gain in the S&P 500 index.
ROSE long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2006 and trading around 18. It climbed to a peak of 29.65 by 2008. However, it was dragged lower during the bear market sinking to $3.52. It has since roared back and is now at $25.27.
ROSE's stock is now in a strong up trend. Its daily chart shows the stock climbing from 13 to 25. Today, the stock clears its small base with an expansion in volume.
The base is short. However, it is above a rising 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock is acting strong.
ROSE's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new peak. That is good confirmation that strong buying is helping to push the stock higher.
ROSE is poised to show strong earnings. This year, analysts forecast a 158% gain in net to 95 cents a share from 37 cents a share a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 27. TTD sees that as low given the earnings outlook. Next year, the Street is projecting a 42% gain in net to $1.36 a share from the anticipated 95 cents a share for this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should be 19 cents a share versus a breakeven a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 26 cents a share. That shows that some analysts are looking for a possible big quarter. ROSE has surprised on the upside in prior quarters.
Going out to the second quarter, earnings should climb 90% to 19 cents a share from 10 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: ROSE is "sweet." The stock's breakout today is very impressive. TTD is targeting ROSE for a move to 32 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 23. TTD rates ROSE a good intermediate-term play provided it meets earnings expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund buyer recently was Prudential Jennison Natural Resources Fund, 3-star rated, which purchased 704,623 shares. Also, 4-star rated Prudential Series Natural Resources pick up 267,600 shares. ROSE has 52.6 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, up from 8 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Rose Resources Inc. - (ROSE)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRM - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROG - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ANR - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MIC - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears remain conservative and watchful.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
NVS, based in Basel, Switzerland, produces healthcare products. Annual revenues: $45 billion. NVS's stock falls sharply today undercutting key technical support. The move comes with an expansion in volume to 3.4 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
NVS's stock was in a consolidation pattern. Today's breakdown comes with several bearish signals. The gap move lower and big volume. NVS is a slow moving stock it has a beta of 0.58 which means it is about half as volatile as the stock market.
Today, NVS's stock fell sharply at the opening. It hit a bottom at 52.12 in the morning. It then rallied modestly to trim some of its loss.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the stock's first block trade today coming in at $52.30 on 45,900 shares. That was a big drop from the prior block trade that went off at $53.78. So, the morning sell off showed plenty of institutional selling pressure.
The company produces medicines, preventive vaccines and diagnostic tools, generic pharmaceuticals and consumer health products.
NVS's makes brand-name patented pharmaceuticals; vaccines and diagnostics, which focuses on human vaccines and blood-testing diagnostics.
Its consumer health operations include over-the-counter medicines, animal health medicines, and contact lenses.
This year, analysts forecast a 28% increase in NVS's earnings to $4.73 a share from $3.70 a year ago. Going out to 2011, they look for a 5% rise in net.
NVS's chart shows a gap drop to the downside. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The AD line (bottom of chart) is holding.
Strategy Opinion: TTD sees NVS as a trading short with a downside target of 47. A protective stop buy can be placed near 54.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)