By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout StocksTotal Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list shrinks as stock market pulls back. Stock market extended. Bulls be careful now and more conservative. Earnings season now begins. So, one must be alert.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWC - AVERAGE
SWC, based in Billings, Mt., mines and sells palladium, platinum and other metals. Annual revenues: $394 million. SWC's stock breaks out from a 12-week, cup-and-handle base today and makes a 52-week high. The move comes with a good expansion in volume. SWC is trading 3.8 million shares so far today, double its normal daily volume of 1.9 million shares.
TTD highlighted SWC as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday.
SWC's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning and then pushing higher into the early afternoon.
Mining and resource stocks have been strong lately. So, SWC has the benefit of good group action for bulls.
SWC's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $14.22 to a peak of $15.32.
A key trade came in the morning when a big block of 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $14.62. That was up from the prior block trade at $14.43. The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying.
SWC does its mining from a geological formation in south central Montana known as the J-M Reef and from the recycling of spent catalytic converters.
The Company conducts mining operations at the Stillwater Mine near Nye, Montana and at the East Boulder Mine near Big Timber, Montana.
Ore extraction at both mines takes place within the J-M Reef. The Company operates a smelter and base metal refinery at Columbus, Montana, which improve the mined concentrates into a PGM-rich filter cake.
Besides processing mine concentrates, SWC also recycles spent catalyst material at the smelter and base metal refinery to recover the contained PGMs palladium, platinum and rhodium.
SWC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 300% compared with a 50% gain in the S&P 500 index.
SWC's long-term chart shows the stock soaring to a peak of 50 in 2000 during the bull market. The stock then moved lower the next three years. It then went into a trading range. The stock has long-term resistance near 20. A push over that level would be very bullish.
SWC's daily chart shows the stock in an up trend and then the cup-and-handle base. The pattern is very bullish. Today's breakout comes with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish.
SWC's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend. That shows good confirmation of solid buying in the stock and no subtle distributional.
TTD sees the key to SWC being its strong earnings outlook.
Net for this year should climb to 42 cents a share from a loss of 4 cents a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 36. That is high for a metal stock. However, the strong outlook for 2011 is the key.
Analysts project SWC's net for 2011 should skyrocket 176% to $1.16 a share from the anticipated 42 cents a share in 2010. That would give the stock a p/e ratio of 13 based on 2011 net.
For the upcoming first quarter, the Street expects SWC's net to come in at 8 cents a share compared with a loss of 12 cents a share a year ago. The company tends to meet estimates or top them by a good amount. So, the odds favor an upside surprise over a disappointment.
Strategy Opinion: SWC is a breakout suitable for an aggressive investors. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 19.50. A protective stop can be placed near 13. TTD rates SWC a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Puritan Fund with a 1.1% stake. The 4-star rated fund has kept its position steady. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated American Century Small Cap Growth Fund which picked up 187,292 shares. SWC has 97.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insides have been buyers using stock options. However, that was offset by selling by other insiders. The latest selling was around $13.65. Just one analyst follows the stock and he has a buy.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWLD - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EOG - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTAP - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TEO - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one breakdown stock today. Bears remain conservative. TTD's short from Tuesday was Novartis AG (NVS) - 52.65, down 0.88. Today, NVS is down to 52.26 and working well for bears.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
MASI, based in Irvine, Ca., makes non-invasive patient monitoring products that improve patient care. Annual revenues: $349 million. MASI's stock falls below key technical support today with expanding volume. The stock has been a laggard and now is vulnerable to more on the downside. So far today, MASI is trading 576,343 shares. Its average daily volume is 382,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted MASI as a short at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday.
MASI fell at the opening. It hit a low of 25.65 in the morning. It then had a slight bounce up, but is now fading again in the afternoon.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. A key trade took place late on Tuesday. That is when a big block of 141,600 shares crossed the tape at $26.53. That was down from the prior block trade at $26.55. The tape action indicated subtle institutional distribution.
The Company invented Masimo Signal Extraction Technology, or Masimo SET, which can measure-Through Motion and Low Perfusion pulse oximetry.
Pulse oximetry is the non-invasive measurement of the oxygen saturation level of arterial blood, or the blood that delivers oxygen to the body’s tissues, and pulse rate. In addition, the company offers remote monitoring and clinician notification solutions, such as the Masimo Patient SafetyNet.
MASI's earnings for the first quarter should rise 4% to 23 cents a share from 22 cents a year ago. That is below its normal growth rate. For the year, analysts project a 14% gain in net to $1 share from 88 cents a year ago.
MASI's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for the past two weeks.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MASI for a drop to 21 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 27. TTD sees MASI as a trading short.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)