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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday, April 8, 2008


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Breakout list got trimmed in the afternoon. Energy sector continues to lead. Bulls be selective.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL) - 81.12, up 2.11 - Breakpoint 81

Quarterly Profit Growth to Accelerate, TTD Targets 100

  UPL, based in Houston, explores and produces oil and natural gas from the Green River Basin in Wyoming. Annual revenues: $567 million. UPL is a  top performer in the red-hot energy sector. Today, UPL breaks out from a seven-week flat base. The move comes with a good expansion in volume. So far today, UPL is trading 1.5 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.5 million shares.

  The stock got off to a good start in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape highlights a block of 4,800 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $80.70 from the prior trade at $80.69. The stock shot higher early in the session hitting a high of  82.34. It then tailed off during the rest of the day.

  TTD highlighted the stock as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.

  TTD also featured UPL last week as a stock to accumulate in anticipation of a breakout.

  TTD's performance chart for UPL (see below) shows the stock appreciating 45% the past 12 months. That compares with a 5% decline in the S&P 500.

    UPL has proven reserves of 2.98 trillion cubic feet of natural-gas equivalent. Daily production averages 332 million cubic feet. Ultra's production is about 90% natural gas. Energy stocks like UPL have been doing well because of the rising in prices for oil and gas.

  TTD's long-term chart of UPL shows the stock as a star performer. It has soared from 5 in 2003 to 80. It remains in a bullish trend.

  UPL's daily chart shows the six-week base with one shake out to the downside. TTD has marked the breakpoint near 81. The stock is just above the breakpoint. Notice too that volume is expanding over the prior day.

  The base was set up after a run from 60 to 80. The structure of the base is bullish.

  The stock's accumulation - distribution line (see bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and has already broken out to the upside. That could well be a confirmation the breakout may work.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is slightly bullish.

  This year, analysts predict a robust 116% surge in profits to $2.46 a share from $1.14 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  30 based on this year's net. That is reasonable.

  Next year, the Street is looking for a 28% gain in net to $3.15 a share.

 Near-term UPL could be driven higher on accelerating quarterly earnings growth. Net for the first quarter is expected to rise 38% and in the second quarter 82%.

  First quarter net is expected to be 58 cents a share, up from 42 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 66 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 100 within a few months. A protective stop can be placed near 75. TTD rates UPL an excellent intermediate-term play because of its strong profit outlook.

  Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Morgan Stanley Focus Growth Fund with a 2.1% stake. It was a recent buyer of 527,000 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Morgan Stanley Mid-Cap Growth Fund, which purchased 497,000 shares.

 Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options, but they have turned around and sold. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, down from 10 three months ago.   


  


  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

  


Charts of Breakout Stocks





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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 11

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Breakdown stock list expands today as stock market declines. Bears be selective seeking damaged stocks. TTD's short play from Monday WMS Industries (WMS) falls 0.88 to 34.83 today.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) - 48.67, off 4.03

Broker Downgrades, Drops Below Support, TTD Sees Decline to 40

GRMN, based in the Cayman Islands, makes global positioning system devices. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. GRMN falls sharply today after a broker lowered its rating on the stock. GRMN has been acting weak at 125 last year. It has been in a down trend. So far today, GRMN is trading 11.6 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 5.4 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock acting bearishly in the morning. A big block of 30,700 shares crossed the tape at $48.44. That came within a sequence started by a modest down tick from $48.44. TTD sees the tape action indicating institutional selling pressure.

  Soleil Securities analyst Peter Friedland cut his rating to hold from buy. He cited weakness in the U.S. consumer market for personal navigation devices.

 GRMN makes GPS software geared toward the aviation, automotive, boating, and outdoor recreational markets.

 The firm sells its consumer products through 3,000 dealers and distributors in 100 countries. It also sells directly to original-equipment manufacturers.

  Analysts are forecasting a 20% increase in first quarter net to 77 cents a share from 64 cents a share a year ago. For the year, they see net rising 18%.

  TTD's chart shows the stock in a clear down trend. It tried to form a bottom around 50. However, today that fails. The stock is down on big volume. The gap drop is bearish indicating a rush to sell. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart)  The accumulation - distribution line is working lower and is bearish.

  TTD is targeting GRMN for a drop to 40. We see the stock as a trading short.


  


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)