Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - April 8,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - April 8, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  2

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Only two breakouts Monday. Bulls be conservative.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors. However, the Dow daily is losing upside momentum being hurt by the decline in Boeing (BA) down 17.41 to 374.52 Monday.

Comment -  TTD suggests Bulls be watchful of all positions as period before April 15 tax deadline in seasonally weak.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Monday - None.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW) - 83.06, up 0.66 - Breakpoint 82.60

Nearing All-time High, TTD Targets 95 

 ARW, based in  Englewood, Co., produces products used by the electronics industry. Annual revenues: $29.7 billion. ARW's stock moves higher Monday and breaks out from an eight-week, double-bottom base.

  The stock is nearing an all-time high.

   So far today, ARW is trading 466,684 shares. Its average daily volume is 626,000 shares.

  ARW is expecting only slight earnings growth this year. So, the stock is just a modest breakout play.

  So far today, ARW is trading a light 466,684 shares. Its average daily volume is 626,000 shares.

  ARW's stock fell in the morning touching an intraday low of $81.14. The stock then turned and rallied steadily during the day cutting across its breakpoint line in the late morning.

  It finished the day near its high for the session. That is technically bullish.

   Tape Action

  ARW's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $82.18 in the prior session to as high as $83.06 near Monday's close.

  A key bullish trade came late on Friday when a massive block of 245,152 shares (duplicated) crossed at $82.40.

  That was up from the prior block at $82.18 on 6,921 shares.

  Then near the close Monday a block of 44,183 shares (duplicated) crossed at $83.06.

  That was up from the prior block at $82.65 on 5,300 shares.

  Business

  ARW makes electronics products for commercial users of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions.

 The company's items include: Ddistributes electronic components to original equipment makers and contract manufacturers.

The company has a portfolio of computing solutions. They include items for datacenter, cloud, security, and analytics solutions.

  Charts

  ARW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 12% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyer using stock options at $28 to $56 a share. They were also heavy buyers at $81 share in February.

  They were recent sellers at $81 to $82 a share.

  ARW's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from around $40 back in 2014 to a peak at $87 by early 2018.

  The stock has been in a long-term consolidation trading range since then  

  ARW's daily chart shows the stock climbing from near $65 back in December to a peak near $82.60 by February.

  The stock put in a classic, double-bottom base.

  The breakout is "soft" coming with modest volume

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.   

  Earnings Outlook

  This year, analysts are forecasting a modest 3% increase in net to $9.07 a share from the $8.83 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 9.

  Going out to 2020, the Street is predicting a 6% rise in net to $9.59 a share from the anticipated $9.07 this year.

  Quarterly earnings growth will be very modest.

  Net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 1% to $1.90 a share from the $1.88 the year before.

  For the second quarter, analysts expect a net of $2.21 a share compared with $2.20 the year before.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ARW for a move to $95 within the next few months, or sooner.

A protective stop can be placed near $80. A key bullish factor is the strong insider buying.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Below Average.

Suitability:   Conservative Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Modestly Bullish -  ARW has scored modest gains recently off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term base.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish -  ARW rose 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. -  ARW averaged a loss of 1% in April and a gain of 3.1% in May the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  3

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks but some interesting plays for aggressive bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Concert Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNCE) - 11

Drug Patent Fails, TTD Sees Drop to 8

  CNCE, based in Lexington, Ma., is a biotech firm working on drugs to treat cystic fibrosis. Annual revenues: $10.5 million. CNCE's stock falls sharply Monday after it failed to get a patent for one of its drug.

 TTD sees more on the downside.

  CNCE is trading a heavy 1.9 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 443,000 shares.

  CNCE said the patent trial and appeal board found the claims on its treatment drug alopecia areat were not patentable.

  CNCE's stock trended sideways in the morning. In the early afternoon, it broke hard to the downside cutting below support and touching and intraday low of $10.26.

  The stock had a slight lift and then trended sideways into the close.

   Tape Action

  CNCE's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $13.75 in the prior session to as low as $10.74 Monday

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 15,876 shares crossed the tape at $12.72.

  That was down from the prior block at $13.05 on 11,308 shares late on Friday.

  Business

 CNCE  seeks to discovery and develop small molecule drugs. The company said its deuterated chemical entity platform  has potential across various therapeutic areas.

 The company's product candidate, CTP-656, is a next generation potentiator to treat cystic fibrosis in patients having gating mutations. 

 Earnings:

  This fiscal year analysts are forecasting a loss of $3.32 a share compared with a loss of $2.40 the year before.

  Going out to 2020, the Street predicts a loss of $3.53 a share. The company has missed on earnings for the past two quarters.

Charts:  

  CNCE's daily chart shows the stock falling from near $18 in March down to around $12. It could technically hold support and now breaks down again on bearish news.

  CNCE's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 42% versus a gain of 11% for the stock market.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CNCE for a decline to $8 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $11.80.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - CNCE rose 6 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Very Bearish.   CNCE averaged a decline of 7.7% in April  and a decline of 0.8% in May the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)