Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - April 10, 2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - April 10, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  13

Quality of Breakouts -  Above Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -   Bulls can be venturesome as some good stocks are breaking out Wednesday.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.

Comment -  TTD sees the stock market in a consolidation. The upcoming earnings will have a big impact.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Earnings beats for Wednesday - BBBY and DAL.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) - 170.46, up 3.40 - Breakpoint 168.37

Net To Soar 183% in Fiscal 2020 (Jan.), TTD Targets 200 

  ADSK, based in San Rafael, Ca., produces business software. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. ADSK's stock drives higher Wednesday and breaks out from a well-formed, seven-week, cup-and-handle base.

  So far today, ADSK is trading 1.6 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2 million shares.

  TTD sees more on the upside. ADSK was highlighted by TTD at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  ADSK's stock shot higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line. The stock got a boos from positive comments from an analyst.

  ADSK reached a peak in the morning at $170.76. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day. It held the bulk of its gain.

   Tape Action

  ADSK's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $166.74 in the prior session to as high as $170.46 Wednesday.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 191,231 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $167.06

  That was up from the prior block at $166.24 on 28,204 shares late on Tuesday.   

  Business

 ADSK makes software for business solutions.

The company's segments include -  Architecture, engineering and construction, platform solutions . manufacturing and media and entertainment.

 ADSK software provides manufacturers in automotive, transportation, industrial machinery, consumer products and building products with digital engineering solutions.

  Charts

 ADSK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 30% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been getting a lot of stock options. The price was not disclosed. They have not done any buying lately.

  Insiders were sellers recently at $154 to $165 a share.

  ADSK's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $39 back in 2013 to $65 by late 2014. The stock based. It then broke out long-term at 2016 at $69. It has since surged to $170.   

  ADSK's daily chart shows the stock rising from $120 in December to a peak near $166 by February.

  The stock put down a classic cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout is good, but modest.

  The volume shows a small pick up.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

 Earnings Outlook

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2020 analysts are forecasting a 183% surge in net to $2.86 a share from the $1.01 a year ago.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 59. TTD sees that as okay.

  Looking out to fiscal 2021, the Street expects a 62% jump in net to $4.63 a share from the anticipated $2.86 this fiscal year.

  Quarterly earnings will be very strong.

  Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in April should surge 683% to 47 cents a share from the 6 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate among 11 analysts is at 51 cents a share.

  Net for the fiscal second quarter ending in July should jump 232% to 63 cents a share from 19 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ADSK for a move to $200.

A protective stop can be placed near $165.

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Bullish.

Suitability:  Aggressive Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - ADSK scored some modest gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.

Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish -  ADSK rose 4 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. -  ADSK averaged a gain of 2.7% in April and a gain of 4.8% in May the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  3

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks. Bears remain conservative.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Flexion Therapeutics Inc. (FLXN) - 11

Loss Seen This Year and Next,  TTD Sees Drop to 8

  FLXN, based in Burlington, Mas., is a drug firm selling products to treat arthritis. Annual revenues: $22.5 million. FLXN's stock falls sharply on heavy volume Wednesday. The bearish move undercuts key technical support.

 So far today, FLXN is trading a heavy 4.2 million shares, about seven times its average daily volume of 583,000 shares.

  TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted FLXN as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

   Tape Action

  FLXN's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $12.63 in the prior session to as low as $10.05.

  A key bearish trade came late on Tuesday when a block of 28,874 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $12.42.

  That was down from the prior block at $12.63 on 119,000 shares.

  Business

  FLXN provides treatment for musculoskeletal conditions beginning with osteoarthritis  a type of degenerative arthritis.

The company's lead product candidate, Zilretta, is a late-stage, injectable, extended-release, intra-articular investigational steroid. FLXN  s developing Zilretta to treat patients with moderate to severe  knee pain.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $3.90 a share compared with a loss of $4.49 the year before.

  Going out to 2020, they see a loss of $2.36 a share.

  For the upcoming first quarter, the Street is predicting a loss of $1.11 a share versus a loss of $1.10 the year before.

Charts:  

  FLXN's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with big volume.

  FLXN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 52% versus a gain of 10% for the stock market.

  Insiders have been recent buyers at $12.36 to $17.10 a share. They were sellers at $12.36 earlier this year.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FLXN for a decline to $8 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $11.60.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish.  -  FLXN rose 2 times after the past 5 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish  - FLXN averaged a decline of 8.1% in April  but a gain of  21.1% in May the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)