By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 2
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list dries up and quality is low. Bulls be selective. Stock market rallied, but upside momentum has weakened. It continues to hold against well though against selling pressure.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVMI - AVERAGE
NVMI, based in Israel, produces measuring systems for the semiconductor industry. Annual revenues: $87 million. NVMI's stock breaks out today from an 8-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a nine-year high. NVMI was one of only two breakout stocks today. So far today, NVMI's stock is trading a heavy 721,146 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 191,000 shares.
NVMI was highlighted by TTD as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
NVMI's 10-minute chart shows the stock climbing in the morning and breaking out. It then sagged back a bit but came on again.
It then held above its breakpoint the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price of the block trades climbing from $10.07 late on Friday to a peak of $10.75 today.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when 7,696 shares, duplicated, crossed the tape at $10.16. That was up from the prior block trade at $10.07.
The tape action showed good institutional buying interest.
NVMI makes monitoring and measurement systems for the semiconductor industry.
The company has produced the Integrated Metrology concept and is now expanding its activities by developing Integrated Monitoring and Process Control systems for CMP, CVD, Photolithography and Etch manufacturing processes.
NVMI's systems for CMP process control have measured more wafers than all other metrology companies combined.
NVMI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 78% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index.
NVMI's long-term chart shows the stock peaking around 8 in 2004 and then going into a hiatus drifting to as low as 42 cents a share in 2009. However, it has since came to life having soared to $10.56. It has made a nine-year high and remains in a strong up trend.
NVMI's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 5 in October to a peak near 11 in February. The stock has since backed off and has formed a well-structured flat base.
Today, it breaks over key resistance with expanding volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. That shows there was good buying while the stock was basing.
TTD sees the near-term key to NVMI being its prospects for the first half this year.
Analysts are forecasting a 158% surge in net for the first quarter to 28 cents a share from 11 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 29 cents a share.
TTD sees very good chances for an upside surprise. The past four quarters, NVMI has topped the consensus estimate by 2 to 7 cents a share.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, net is expected to jump 59% to 29 cents a share from 18 cents a yea ago. The company is doing well because of strong growth in the semiconductor industry. That is due to the development of new products.
The Street expects NVMI to post at 17% increase in net for 2011 to $1.01 a share from 86 cents a year ago. That would give the stock a modest p/e ratio of just 10. Looking ahead to 2012, profits are projected to rise 10% to $1.11 a share.
Strategy Opinion: NVMI is a speculative breakout play. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 13.50. A protective stop can be placed near 9.20. TTD rates NVMI an average intermediate-term play provided net meets Street projections.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest shareholder is Federated Kaufmann Small Cap Fund with a big 6% stake. The 2-star rated fund has held its position steady. The largest fund buyer recently was 3-star rated Empiric Core Equity Fund, which bought 61,900 shares. NVMI has 23.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Not available. Three analysts follow the stock, and all 3 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. - (NVMI)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UDRL -BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks so far today. Stock market starting to fade back. Bears be more venturesome.
JACK, based in San Diego, operates a chain of fast food restaurants. Annual revenues: $2.3 billion. JACK falls sharply today in heavy trading. The move was triggered by a downgrading by Credit Suisse. So far today, JACK is trading 700,142 shares, double its normal daily volume of 351,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted JACK as a short at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
JACK's stock gapped lower in the morning. It fell to an intraday low of $20.96. It was unable to stage any rally during the session.
JACK's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $22.56 to as low as $21.47. A key bearish trade came in the morning when 11,801 shares (duplicated) fell to $21.47.
The tape action showed clear institutional selling pressure.
JACK is a fast-service hamburger restaurant chain. It sells hamburgers, specialty sandwiches, salads, Mexican food, finger foods and side items. The core of the Jack in the Box menu is its hamburger products, including its signature hamburgers, the Jumbo Jack, Ultimate Cheeseburger and Sourdough Jack.
This fiscal year ending in September, analysts forecast a 4% decline in net to $1.57 a share from $1.63 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 31 is expected to sink 29%.
JACK's chart shows the stock gapping lower with expanding volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) turned week a few weeks ago. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been bearish for several months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting JACK for a drop to 17.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 22.20.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JACK - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)