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Ticker Tape Digest

 Monday - April 13, 2009

                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

 Bull's Strategy - Only one good looking breakout today.  Bulls be patient.  Earnings reports will be coming now. So, ne needs to be alert for breakout stocks with strong earnings.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Allegiant Travel Co. (ALGT) - 52.61, up 3.62 - Breakpoint 49.55

Profits to Soar 142% This Year, TTD Targets 64

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVEC  -  AVERAGE

    ALGT, based in Las Vegas, is a niche airline providing nonstop flights from 53 small cities to large vacation destinations such as Las Vegas and Orlando. Annual revenues: $500 million. ALGT breaks out from a 15-week, cup-and-handle base today and makes a new high. The move comes on volume of 1.2 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 518,000 shares.

  TTD featured ALGT as a possible breakout last week in our TTD Pro Report.

 The stock was also featured today at our midsession show on the Web..

  ALGT's flight to a new high obviously drew in buying from the new high crowd. It may do the same on Tuesday. The stock dipped a bit at the opening, but then turned higher and acted strong most of the rest of the day. It eased back near the close.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 34,700 shares crossing today in the morning. The block went off on a modest up tick to $48.65 from the prior trade at $48.63. The tape action indicated good institutional buying interest.

 ALGT's stock was a star performer last year soaring from 16 to 48. This year, it went into a pull back and has since rallied. The stock has now formed a classic cup-and-handle base. With strong earnings coming for the next few quarters, TTD sees good chances for a breakout to the upside.

  ALGT generates ancillary revenue by charging incremental fees for in-flight conveniences and by brokering hotel rooms and rental cars online and via phone. It  is featuring some very interesting discounts - one is to Phoenix.

 The company also has fixed-fee deals with Harrah's Entertainment to fly certain prespecified routes. The firm's fleet is composed solely of McDonnell Douglas MD-80 aircraft.

  TTD's performance chart shows ALGT's stock appreciating 115% the past 12 months compared with a 30% decline in the S&P 500 index.

  TTD's long-term chart goes back just to 2007. It shows ALGT falling from the mid-30s in 2007 to 16 in 2008. However, since then the stock has been working higher long-term.

  TTD's daily chart shows the well formed, cup-and-handle base.

 The structure of the base is ideal. There is a good contraction of volume near the lows. The stock rallied to the top of the base. Now it breaks out with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now trending higher. That shows the stock is attracting buying interest which is confirmed by the tape action.

  ALGT should show a massive acceleration in quarterly earnings growth. Net for the first quarter should soar 148% and then in the second quarter 781%. That kind of accelerating growth is often a powerful driver to send a stock higher, especially if the industry group is doing better.

  Net for the first quarter should increase to $1.17 a share from 47 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.33 a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past two quarters, ALGT topped the consensus estimate on the Street by 20 cents a share and 6 cents.

  Net for the second quarter should surge to $1.15 a share from 13 cents a year ago.

  For the year, analysts predict a 142% surge in net to $4.18 a share from $1.73 a share. Some analysts are as high as $5.14 a share. March traffic increased 16%. Looking out to 2010, the Street is currently looking for a 4% gain in net to $4.37 a share. The stock sells with a modest 11 price-earnings-ratio based on this year's net.

  Strategy Opinion: ALGT's breakout today is impressive. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 64 within the next few months, or sooner. The push to a new high is very bullish. That means there is no overhead resistance to stall its advance. A protective stop can be placed near 49.90.

 TTD rates ALGT an excellent intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. Several top rated funds hold the stock. 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund is the second largest holder with a 3.5% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest fund holder is 2-star rated Fidelity Advisor Mid Cap Fund with a 5.1% stake. ALGT has 20 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 5.4 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options. They have turned around and sold. Currently, 7 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, down from 5 three months ago.  

                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Allegiant Travel Co. -  (ALGT) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 14 0 0

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KONG  -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SIGA  -  BELOW AVERAGE

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today even as stock market backs off slightly. Bears be conservative now. However, be on the alert for stocks falling a poor earnings. TTD's feature short on Wednesday was  Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) - 11.20, off 0.44. Today, the stock falls 0.17 to $11.01. It is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Global Crossing Ltd. (GLBC) - 6.72, off 0.93

Analysts See Big Loss This Year, TTD Sees Slide to 4.50

  GLBC, based in Hamilton, Bermuda, owns expansive undersea and terrestrial telecommunications networks that directly reach more than 30 countries. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. GLBC's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The company is expected to report heavy losses this year. TTD sees good chances for more on the downside for bears.

  So far today, GLBC's stock is down about 10%. The stock is trading 844,935 shares, five times its average daily volume of 176,000 shares.

  The stock gapped sharply lower at the opening. It rallied a bit in the morning and then trended sideways the rest of the day.

  TTD's table shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling steadily from $7.65 to $6.60. A key trade (shown twice) was a big block of 203,240 shares crossing at $6.71. TTD sees the tape action indicating heavy institutional selling pressure.

  GLBCl provides long-distance phone services and data services, such as Internet access and virtual private networking, to both enterprises and other carriers.

  This year, analysts forecast GLBC will show a loss of $3.49 a share compared with a loss of $5.04 a share a year ago. Looking out to 2010, they expect a loss of $2.41 a share.

  GLBC's stock fell from 20 last year to the 5 area and then tried to form a bottom. Today, the stock breaks down below a near-term trend line (see TTD's chart) The key is the big pick up in volume. A break below six would show good momentum to the downside. The stock's technicals show as bullish, but today's breakdown is very bearish.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GLBC for a decline to 4.50 within the next few months or sooner.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)