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Ticker Tape Digest

 Tuesday - April 14, 2009

                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,200

 Bull's Strategy - Bulls be patient and very selective.  Earnings reports will be coming now. So, one needs to be alert for breakout stocks with strong earnings.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Open Text Corp. (OTEX) - 36, up 0.89 - Breakpoint 35.95

Profits to Rise 23% This Fiscal Year, TTD Targets 45

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OTEX  -  AVERAGE

  OTEX, based in Waterloo, Ontario, provides software that allows clients to archive, aggregate, retrieve, and search unstructured information such as documents, e-mail, presentations. Annual revenues: $770 million. OTEX's stock edges out from an 11-week, cup-and-handle base today. The stock is within range to hit a new all-time high. It just needs to get over 39.09. If that takes place the stock could attract more buying from the new-high crowd.

  TTD highlighted OTEX as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web today.

  So far today, OTEX is trading 922,869 shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 510,000 shares.

  The stock rose sharply in the morning, trended sideways most of the day and then drifted off a bit late in the session.

 TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades in the stock today. One can see the price for the blocks rising from $34.76 to $36. The tape action indicates good institutional buying interest.

OTEX grew out of a technology project involving the Oxford English Dictionary at Canada's University of Waterloo in the mid-1980s.   One of its customers is Lockheed. OTEX has been active in making acquisitions to expand its operations. .

  TTD's performance chart shows OTEX appreciating 20% the past nine months. It easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down 30%.

  OTEX's long term chart shows the stock acting strong through the recent bear market. Since 2007 it has climbed from 18 to 36 - a double.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock's recent advance from 22 late last year to a peak of 36. The stock then sagged back and formed its cup-and-handle base.

  Today, it just edges out from the base on expanding volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That indicates the underlying buying in the stock is strong.

  It will be important for OTEX to demonstrate a follow through on today's move.

  OTEX's net for the fiscal year ending June 30 should increase 23% to $2.43 a share from $1.97 a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 14. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors.

  Going out to fiscal 2010, the Street is forecasting a 15% increase in net to $2.79 a share against the anticipated $2.43 a share for fiscal 2009.

  For the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending March 30, earnings should be up 26% to 58 cents a share from 46 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is 60 cents a share.

  TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past four quarter, the company surprised on the upside every time from 3 to 8 cent a share.

  Strategy Opinion: OTEX is a special situation stock. The stock has not cleared the base by much. Thus, TTD suggests scaling into OTEX with a view to quickly averaging up. TTD is targeting OTEX for a move to 45. A protective stop can be placed near 33. TTD rates OTEX a good intermediate-term play due to its good earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Seligman Communications Fund with a 4.2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 407,000 shares. The second largest holder is Fidelity Contrafund, 5-star rated. It has a 3.1% stake. It was a recent buyer of 560,000 shares. OTEX has 51 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 11.7 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, down from 6 three months ago.   

                     Stock Performance Chart for 9 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Open Text Corp.  -  (OTEX) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 14 0 0

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VNR  -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NMM  -  BELOW AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  A few more short plays today as stock market moves lower on weak retail sales. Bears be patient looking for fundamentally damaged stocks or stocks breaking below key support with volume.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Huron Consulting Group Inc. (HURN) - 36.50, off 3.50

Stock Cuts Below Key Support, TTD Sees Drop to 30

  HURN, based in Chicago, provides financial and operating consulting services. Annual revenues: $672 million. HURN's stock falls sharply today cutting below key support on big volume. The technical breakdown coming before the firm reports earnings is very bearish. TTD sees more on the downside. So far today, HURN is trading 624,426 shares, double its normal daily volume of 272,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted HURN as a short play at our midsession show on the Web today.

  The stock moved sharply lower in the morning and continued sought until the early afternoon. It stabilized later in the session. TTD's clip of the tape shows one of the largest trades in the stock. It is a big block of 35,000 shares crossing at $37. The trade came within a sequence started by a down tick from $37.04. TTD sees that as bearish tape action.

  HURN provides its services to corporate clients that are in financial distress or involved in other disputes.

 Its consultants offer forensic accounting and economic analysis expertise and often serve as expert witnesses. It also offers management consulting to help companies improve their performance and avoid potential problems

  The company will report first quarter net on Thursday, April 30. The Street is forecasting flat earnings at 56 cents a share. The tape action though indicates there could be a disappointment.

  For the year, analysts look for a 49% surge in net to $3.18 a share from $2.13 a share a year ago. Any lowering of that estimate could damage the stock.

  TTD's daily chart shows HURN's stock in a down trend from roughly 60 to 40. The stock tried to form a bottom. However, it is now breaking down. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.

  Strategy Opinion: The technical breakdown is severe and very favorable for bears. TTD is targeting the stock for a drop to 30 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees chances for a serious breakdown if earnings disappoint big time.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)