By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout StocksTotal Buy Breakouts so far today - 18
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list expands with several top quality breakouts. Market is extended and still vulnerable, Bulls be careful.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ISRG - ABOVE AVERAGE
ISRG, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., makes medical products used for surgery. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. ISRG's stock breaks out today from a seven-week flat base. Volume is running at 1.2 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 560,000 shares. The stock's move today carries it to a new all-time high. That is bullish and could well bring in more buying from the new-high crowd on Thursday.
TTD highlighted the stock as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday.
ISRG's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out and clearing its base in the morning.
The move came with a good expansion in intraday volume. The stock held its gain throughout the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades the past two days. One can see the price of the stock climbing from $367.11 to $370.
A key trade took place late on Tuesday when a block of 20,050 shares crossed at $367.43 (duplicated).
That was up from the prior block trade that went off at $366.08.
The tape action showed good institutional accumulation prior to today's breakout.
ISRG makes the da Vinci Surgical Systems, EndoWrist instruments, and surgical accessories.
The company’s da Vinci Surgical Systems consist of a surgeon’s console, a patient-side cart and a vision system.
The system translates the surgeon’s natural hand movements performed on instrument controls at a surgeon’s console into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small incisions, or ports. The system is the company's main product.
ISRG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 220% compared with a 45% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is a leader.
ISRG's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a new high. The stock was pulled down from a peak of 359 in 2007 to around 100 during the bear market. However, ISRG has rebounded strongly. The push to a new high is very bullish.
ISRG's daily chart shows the stock's recent advance from 240 to 360. The stock formed a flat base. It began to weaken a bit in price in late May, but in the past few sessions has rebounded sharply to breakout.
The stock's technicals are bullish.
The TTD momentum indictor (top of chart) is now modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside. It compliments the price's breakout. ISRG's stock has a beta of 1.9 versus 1.0 for the stock market. So, it tends to be twice as volatile as the stock market.
This year, analysts forecast a 24% increase in net to %7.75 a share from $6.23 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 49. That is high. So, one does need to be watchful of the stock.
Going out to 2011, the Street is forecasting a 22% gain in net to $9.43 a share from the anticipated $7.75 a share.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should jump 62% to $1.65 a share from $1.02 a year ago. The company is expected to report net soon.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.78 a share. The past three quarters ISRG has topped the consensus estimate by 13% to 28%. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ISRG for a move to 450 within the next few months. A lot will depend on the company's earnings growth. A protective stop can be placed near 365. TTD rates ISRG an average intermediate-term play due to its high p/e ratio.
Sponsorship: Above Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated American Funds Growth Fund of America with a 5% stake. It was a recent buyer of 55,100 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated American Funds New Perspective Fund which picked up 250,000 shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options, but they turned around and sold. Right now, 12 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months go.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMZN - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MRVL - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - V - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DMND - ABOVE AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Still only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears be conservative and selective as stock market continues to work higher.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
ACLI, based in Jefferson, Ind., is a diversified inland marine transportation and service company operating in the United States. Annual revenues: $846 million. ACLI's stock rolls over and breaks to the downside today. Volume so far today is running at about double its normal daily volume. With lower earnings projected for this year, TTD sees more on the downside.
ACLI's stock worked lower today through the morning and the early afternoon. In the late afternoon, the stock trended sideways. ACLI is trading 96,854 shares so far today. The stock is thinly traded. It has a beta of 1.89 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock is almost twice as volatile as the stock market.
TTD's clip of the tape shows ACLI's big block trades recently. The key is that the price for the blocks has declined from $25.10 to $21.04. That shows the big trades are selling and that is bearish.
Interestingly, ACLI was $159 back in early 2007. It has fallen due to the bear market and losses. It has been unable to rally effectively.
ACLI provides barge transportation. It makes barges primarily for brown-water use. ACLI also provides certain naval architectural services to its customers.
The Company operates in two business segments: transportation and manufacturing.
ACLI’s transportation fleet consisted of 2,510 barges, including 1,765 covered dry cargo barges, 384 open dry cargo barges and 361 tank barges.
This year, analysts forecast a 20% decline in ACLI's earnings to $1 a share from $1.25 a share last year.
ACLI's daily chart shows the stock rally from 15 to 25. However, the stock is now rolling over with volume picking up. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now trending lower.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ACLI's stock for a decline to 16.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 22.20.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)