By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout StocksTotal Buy Breakouts so far today - 16
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list still large with some tucking stocks showing up. Market is extended and still vulnerable, Bulls be careful.
The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XEC - ABOVE AVERAGE
XEC, based in Denver, is a producer of oil and gas. Annual revenues: $1 billion. XEC's stock breaks out today from a 7-week, double-bottom base and makes a new 52-week high. TTD highlighted XEC recently as a stock to accumulate in anticipation of a breakout. So far today, the stock is trading 1.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 930,000 shares.
XEC was featured today on TTD's web show at midday.
XEC's 10 minute chart shows the stock edging above its breakpoint late on Wednesday. However, today, it drives sharply higher in the morning to clear the base breakpoint convincingly.
XEC held its breakout and acted strong in the afternoon. The action was very bullish.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks.
The tape action is solidly bullish. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $61.60 to $64.40 the past few days.
A key trade today was a big block of 5,100 shares that crossed at $64.40. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $64.03. The tape action today would indicate aggressive institutional buying interest.
XEC operates in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas and Wyoming. It has proved oil and gas reserves of 1.5 trillion cubic feet equivalent, consisting of 1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas and 58 million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids.
The Company operates the wells that account for 79% of its total proved reserves and 82% of production. During 2009, it sold various oil and gas properties, of which was a West Texas secondary oil recovery field.
XEC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 170% versus a 45% gain for the S&P 500 index.
XEC's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 19 back in 2003 to a peak of 72 in 2008. The stock was then swept lower in the bear market falling back to 19 in 2009. The stock has since staged a dramatic comeback and is now in a strong up trend.
The stock's double bottom base could also be considered a cup and handle base.
It was formed after XEC rallied from 40 in November to 62. The structure of the base is very good, although it is short. The basing work was done above a rising 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock is still in a strong up trend.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is extremely bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and broke out before the stock did today. So, the AD line is leading the price chart. That is bullish.
XEC is poised to show strong profits.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 135% surge in XEC's profits to $5.73 a share from $2.44 a year ago. The stock has price-earnings ratio of 10. That is well below the earnings outlook. So, TTD sees XEC as a good value play for growth investors.
Going out to 2011, the Street is looking for a 23% gain to $7.05 a share from the anticipated $5.73 a share in 2010.
Profits for the next two quarters will be very strong and should be the driver to send the stock higher. Net for the upcoming first quarter should surge to $1.47 a share from 9 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.77 a share. The prior quarter, XEC topped the consensus estimate by a wide margin. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Net for the second quarter is expected to climb 202% to $1.39 a share from 46 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting XEC for a move to 79 . That is up from our prior target of 76 that we set when suggesting accumulation. A protective stop can be placed near 59 giving it room. TTD rates XEC a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Artisan Mid Cap Value Fund with a 3.6% stake. It was a recent buyer of 280,200 shares. A key buyer recently was 5-star rated Van Eck Global Hard Asset Fund which purchased 628,800 shares. XEC has 83.8 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options recently. They turned around and sold. The latest price was at $61.50. Currently, 13 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 3 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AXE - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JBHT - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IR - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PWER - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Still very few breakdown stocks. Stock market continues to work higher. Bears remain patient and conservative. Today, HMO stocks are breaking down.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
UNH, based in Minnetonka, Min., is a health maintenance firm. Annual revenues: $87.1 billion. HMO stocks are weak today. UNH is a major player in the group and today its stock declines on heavy volume. The move undercuts key support and sets off a TTD short play. So far today, UNH is trading 20 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 11.4 million shares.
UNH's stock moved lower in the morning. It touched an intraday low of 30.08. It then lifted in the afternoon as the stock market rallied modestly.
Technically, the stock undercut key near-term support at 31.50.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price of the blocks declining from $31.10 to $30.15. The tape action indicates clear institutional selling pressure. A key trade took place around midday when a big block of 245,100 shares crossed the tape at $30.15. That was well below the prior block trade at $30.57.
UNH operates in four business areas. It is in Health Benefits Ovations and AmeriChoice; OptumHealth; Ingenix and Prescription Solutions. On June 1, 2009, the company accused AIM Healthcare Service. In March 2010, UNH acquired QualityMetric Incorporated.
This year, analysts forecast a 5% decline in UNH's net to $3.06 a share from $3.24 a year ago. Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to drop 16% to 68 cents a share from 74 cents a year ago.
UNH's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key support at $31.50. The stock declined the prior day with expanding volume. So, the pattern is showing a pick up in selling pressure. UNH's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a clear down trend showing heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UNH for a decline to 25 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees UNH as a trading short. A protective stop buy can be placed near 31.80.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)