Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Friday, April 19, 2013

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Friday, April 19, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - April 19, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Good list of breakout stocks with some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market needs to consolidate after pull back.  

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - April 19

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Allegiant Travel Co. (ALGT)  - 90.53, up 1.70 - Breakpoint 89.50

Net to Climb 28% This Year, TTD Targets 110

     ALGT, based in Las Vegas, is a niche airline providing nonstop flights from small cities to vacation destinations such as Las Vegas and Orlando. Annual revenues: $908 million. ALGT breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.

TTD recently featured ALGT as a potential breakout.

 ALGT 's stock rose sharply in the morning. It hit a peak of $91.16 in the morning. (see 10-minute chart). The stock then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.

  Voluem was running at 97,920 shares. Its average daily volume is 104,000 shares.

   TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in ALGT.

 One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $88.94 to as high as 90.90 around midday

  A key bullish trade came when a block of 6,845 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $89.53.

  That was up from the prior block at $88.83.

  ALGT generates revenue by charging incremental fees for in-flight conveniences and by brokering hotel rooms and rental cars online and via phone. It has attractive discounts.

 The company also has fixed-fee deals with Harrah's Entertainment to fly certain prespecified routes. The firm's fleet is composed of 56 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 aircraft. and one Boeing 757-200 plane.

  The company covers 64 small cities and 11 leisure destinations.

  TTD's long-term chart goes back to 2007. It shows ALGT falling from the mid-30s in 2007 to 16 in 2008 due to the bear market.

 However, since then the stock has been working higher. It did meet long-term upside resistance around 60. However, the stock pushed through that zone. The push to a new high could draw in more buying on Monday from the new-high crowd.  

  TTD's daily chart shows ALGT in a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. The breakout clears resistance nicely.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend.

 That shows the stock is under good buying pressure and was a lead indicatior of a potential breakout.

  For the year, analysts are looking for a 28% gain in net to $5.21 a share from $4.06 a share, a year ago.

 The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  16. TTD sees that as attractive to value-growth investors.

  Going out to 2014, the Street projects a 19% gain in net to $6.20 a share from the anticipated $5.21 this year.

  Net for the first quarter should climb 32% to $1.49 a share from $1.13 the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.64 a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The prior three quarters, ALGT topped the consensus estimate by 3 cents a share, 5 cents and 14 cents.

  Net for the second quarter should rise 21% to $1.57 a share from $1.30 a year before.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ALGT for a move to 110.  A protective stop can be set at 85.

  TTD rates ALGT a very good intermediate-term play due to its solid earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. Several top rated funds hold the stock. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 7.8% stake. It was a recent buyer of  137,000 shares.

 Also, 4-star rated Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund was a recent buyer of 110,997 shares. It has a 2.2% stake.

 ALGT has 19.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 83% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options from $20 to $42. They were recent sellers from $74 to 88.

 Currently, 10 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, down from 6 three months ago.    

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 9

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Good number of breakdown stocks today. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market mixed after big drop earlier in the week.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Tibco Software Inc. (TIBX) - 18.46, down 0.75

Net to Tumble 44% in Coming Quarter, TTD Sees Side to 14

  TIBX, based in Palo Alto, Ca., produces business software. Annual revenues: $1 billion. TIBX's stock cuts below key technical support Friday. The move comes with volume expanding to 6.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4.8 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

 TTD highlighted TIBX as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.

  TIBX's stock fells steadily from the opening down to an intraday low of 18.18 in the early afternoon. The stock then trended sideways through the afternoon.

  The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the block trade prices declining from $19.43 to as low as $18.40. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 37,227 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $19.16. That was down from the prior block trade at $19.43.

 TIBX provides software solutions that enable businesses to integrate internal operations, business partners and customer channels in real- time.

 The programs  enable computer applications and systems to communicate across local or wide area networks, including the Internet.

  Analysts are forecasting a 44% drop in net for th fiscal second quarter ending in May to 11 cents a share from 20 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 12 cents a share.

  Overall, for the fiscal year ending in November, analysts look for an 11% decline in net to 70 cents a share from 79 cents a year ago.

    TIBX's daily chart shows the stock trending lower. It undercut key support back in March on a gap decline. It then tried to form a bottom. However, it cuts below support again. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for the past six weeks.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TIBX for a decline to 14 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed ner 19.80.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)