Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 16, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - April 19, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Breakout list shows several leaders dominating the list.
Stock market - Bullish. Major averages remain bullish in all time sectors. The structure of the technical pattern shows a trading range. Bulls be selective and watchful.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - USAK - ABOVE AVERAGE |
USAK, based in Van Buren, Ark., is a truckload carrier providing transportation of general commodities in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Annual revenues: $447 million. USAK's stock moves higher Thursday and breaks out from an 11-week flat base.
So far today, USAK is trading a heavy 296,299 shares, four times its average daily volume of 69,000 shares.
TTD highlighted USAK as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
USAK is part of the strong acting trucking sector where several stocks recently broke out.
USAK's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday high of $29.15 in the morning.
The stock then pulled back to around $28 and then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
USAK's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $27.48 in the prior session to as high as $28.82 Thursday morning.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,900 shares crossed the tape at $28.69.
That was up from the prior block the day before at $27.48 on 2,286 shares.
Business
USAK operates in two areas: Trucking and strategic capacity solutions.
The trucking group consists of truckload and dedicated freight services. The group consists of freight brokerage and rail intermodal services.
USAK transports full dry van trailer loads of freight from origin to destination without intermediate stops or handling.
The company fleet of 1,832 tractors consists of 1,568 company tractors and 264 independent contractor tractors.
The Company owns 6,200 trailers. It transports general commodities into and out of Mexico from its terminal in Laredo, Tex.
Charts
USAK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up a sensational 295% versus a 16% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $5.86 to $26.59. They have also been awarded options. Insiders have not been recent sellers. USAK's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $2.85 back in 2012 to a peak at $32.14 by early 2015.
The stock then trended lower down to $5.73 by 2017.
However, since then USAK has been driving higher having made a fivefold move.
USAK's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $17 back in November to a peak at $27.58 by February.
The stock then put down a flat base.
The breakout clears well defined resistance.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a profit of $1.36 a share compared with a loss of 56 cents the year before.
USAK sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a 61% leap in net to $2.17 a share from the anticipated $1.35 this year.
Net for the first quarter is expected to rise to 11 cents a share from the loss of 55 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 13 cents a share. The company tends to be erratic with earnings. So, the stock needs to be watched closely.
For the second quarter, net is expected to climb to 36 cents a share from the loss of 34 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting USAK for a move to $34 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $25.50.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish- USAK has tended to score just big gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish. USAK rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Neutral. USAK declined an average of 0.5% in April but rose 1.5% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
44% |
1/8/2018 |
19.04 |
27.48 |
Still in play |
82% |
11/6/2017 |
15.06 |
27.48 |
Still in play |
171% |
8/28/2017 |
10.14 |
27.48 |
Still in play |
62% |
11/28/2014 |
19.51 |
31.79 |
2/18/2015 |
123% |
9/25/2013 |
6.46 |
14.43 |
11/22/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating USA Truck Inc. (USAK) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GWW - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HEI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTIC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NGHC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 12
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks Thursday with some good looking plays. Bears can be venturesome.
SNBR, based in Minneapolis, formerly Select Comfort Corp. makes a line of sleep number beds. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. SNBR's stock falls sharply Thursday after reporting lower than expected earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted SNBR as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
So far today, SNBR is trading a heavy 5.8 million shares, 10 times its average daily volume of 523,000 shares.
SNBR fell sharply in after trading in the prior session. It continued lower Thursday touching an intraday low of $30.51.
The stock then lifted slightly, faded back and then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to rally effectively.
The company reported net for the first quarter of 52 cents a share. That was below the consensus estimate of 56 cents a share on the Street.
Tape Action
SNBR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $33 in the prior session to as low as $30.65 Thursday morning.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 32,700 shares crossed the tape at $31.30.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $33 on 11,572 shares the day before.
Business
SNBR sells a line of Sleep Number beds, bases and bedding accessories.
Its Sleep Number bed offers SleepIQ technology sensors that work directly with the bed's DualAir technology to track each individual's sleep.
The Sleep Number bedding collection comprises a line of sleep products that are designed to solve sleep issues. It offers FlextFit adjustable bases, and Sleep Number pillows, sheets and other bedding products.
Earnings:
This year, analysts were forecasting a 26% jump in net to $1.88 a share from the $1.49 the year before.
However, with the first quarter miss those estimates probably will come down.
Net for the second quarter - a slow period - is expected to fall to 4 cents a share from 10 cents the year before.
Charts:
SNBR's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock had recently made an all-time high of $40.72 in January.
SNBR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 21% versus a 16% gain for the stock market. However, the performance has been declining.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $2.97 a share and $28.99 a share. They were sellers at $34 to $38 a share recently.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SNBR for a decline to $25.70 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $33.50.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral. SNBR rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. SNBR rose an average of 6.5% in April but declined an average of 3.5% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNBR - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)