TTD does not publish Thursday. We resume Monday. Have a nice Holiday.
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 20
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list expands Wednesday as the stock market climbs sharply. Bulls be selective. Stock market rallied and is trying to emerge from a trading range. Earnings reports will have big impact on individual stocks and direction of the market.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MYL - ABOVE AVERAGE
MYL, based in Canonsburg, Pa., produces generic drugs. Annual revenues: $5.5 billion. MYL's stock breaks out today from a three-month flat base today and makes a 5-year high. The move comes on volume of 17.3 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 4.6 million shares. The push higher was aided by MYL's launch of a generic version of the Famciclovir tablets to treat herpes.
TTD highlighted MYL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.
TTD's 10-minute chart shows MYL driving sharply higher in the morning. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain.
Interestingly, MYL's move higher today represents a breakout from a well-formed one-year, cup-and-handle base. So, that bodes well for the long-term bullish pattern of the stock.
TTD's clip of the tape shows MYL's big block activity.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $23.93 on Tuesday to a peak of $25.06 around midday on Wednesday. Then there is a decline. The tape action shows good institutional buying in the morning and then some selling, or profit taking, in the afternoon.
A key bullish trade cam when 100,000 shares traded in the morning at $24.95. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $23.93 on 75,000 shares.
MYL offers one of the industry's broadest and highest quality product portfolios.
It also has a strong product pipeline and operations in 90 countries.
Through its controlling interest in Matrix Laboratories Limited, Mylan has direct access to one of the largest active drug ingredient makers. Dey L.P., Mylan's fully integrated specialty business, provides the firm with innovative and diversified opportunities in the respiratory and allergy therapeutic areas.
MYL's 3-year performance chart shows the stock appreciating 100% versus a 5% decline in the S&P 500 index. The stock has been a steady long-term play since it made a bottom at 7 during the bear market. It is in position to make a new all-time high. It just needs to hurdle 28.75. A new high would be bullish.
MYL's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 18 late last year to a peak near 24 in January. MYL then put down a flat base. During the recent weeks the stock climbed to the top of the base. Today, it breakout out with strong volume.
MYL's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bullish for about four weeks.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. It has hit a new peak and that is good confirmation that the breakout is well supported by good buying interest.
TTD sees the fundamental driver for the stock being an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth.
Analysts look for MYL's net to climb 21% for the first quarter and then 35% in the second quarter.
Net for the first quarter should come in at 44 cents a share, up from 36 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 45 cents a share. MYL tends to come in close to the Street consensus. TTD does not expect any surprises. The company reports May 3.
For the second quarter, net is expected to hit 50 cents a share, up from 37 cents a year ago.
Overall, net for the year should climb 24% to $2 a share from $1.61 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 12. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value investors. Net for 2012 should climb 15% to $2.29 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MYL for a move to 31. A protective stop can be placed near 22.50. TTD rates MYL a good intermediate-term play for conservative investors.
Sponsorship: Very Good. A key fund buyer recently was 4-star rated BlackRock Global Allocation Fund which purchased 2. 6 million shares. MYL has 437.6 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been light buyers recently. They have done very little selling. The latest sell was at $22.30. Right now, 18 analysts follow the stock, 13 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Mylan Inc. - (MYL)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -TDC - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AME - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TWC - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RDEN - ABOVE AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Very few breakdown stocks today as stock market stages strong rally. Bears be conservative now. Stock market in a trading range and now trying to breakout.
MTG, based in Milwaukee, is a provider of private mortgage insurance. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. MTG's stock breaks below key technical support today setting off a short play. The company reported a loss for the first quarter. So far today, MTG is trading a heavy 17.7 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 3.4 million shares.
MTG today reported for the first quarter a loss equal to 17 cents a share compared with a loss of $1.20 a share a year ago. Revenues for the quarter dropped to $353 million from $370 million a year ago.
The 17 cent loss was more than the seven cent share loss expected by the Street.
MTG's stock declined in the morning. It then consolidated around midday trying to form an intraday bottom. However, the stock turned lower again in the afternoon.
The tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $8.80 to as low as $7.62. - the first key block trade of Wednesday, which went off at 186,500 shares.
MTG is a holding company which, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, provides mortgage insurance.
The private mortgage insurance covers residential first mortgage loans and expands home ownership opportunities by enabling people to purchase homes with less than 20% down payments. If the home owner defaults, private mortgage insurance reduces and, in some instances, eliminates the loss to the insured institution.
This year, analysts have been forecasting MTG to post a profit of 23 cents a share compared with a loss of $2.59 a year ago.
MTG's chart shows the stock holding support around 8 in recent months. However, today the stock cuts below support with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steep down trend. That shows there has been and still is heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MTG for a decline to 5 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 8.20.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTG - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)