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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 16 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakouts, with some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holds in basing pattern within overall up trend. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UA - AVERAGE |
UA, based in Baltimore, produces sporting apparel and footwear.
Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. UA's stock, a leader, breaks out today from a six-week flat base and pushes to a new all-time high. The drive higher today was propelled by a strong than expected earnings increase for the first quarter that topped the highest estimate on the Street. So far today, UA is trading a heavy 3.9 million shares, five times its normal daily volume. 
UA reported net for the first quarter rose to 28 cents a share from 23 cents a year ago. The 28 cents topped the consensus estimate of 24 cents a share and also the highest estimate on the Street of 27 cents a share.
The stock responded to the bullish news in a bullish way.
TTD's 10-minute chart shows the stock diving higher through most of the day. It hit an intraday high of 102.86. It drove across its breakpoint in the morning.
UA's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
The price for the recent block trades shows the price climbing from $94.58 to a peak of $101.53. So, institutions responded to the earnings news by pushing up the price.
UA makes performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth.
Its products are sold worldwide and are worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional,.
Its revenues are generated primarily from the wholesale distribution of its products to national, regional, independent and specialty retailers. Under Armour’s products are offered in over 20,000 retail stores worldwide.
Most of its products are sold in North America. The company’s trademarks include Under Armour, Heatgear, Coldgear, Allseasongear and the Under Armour UA Logo.
UA's been a star performer. Its 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 30% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index.
UA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2005 and
trading around 23. It then climbed to a peak of 73 in 2007. The stock
was then dragged lower during the bear market sinking to $10.75. It has
since rallied strongly and is now making a new high. That could bring in more buying from the new-high crowd on Monday. There was some concern about the quarterly earnings, but that cloud has lifted. 
UA's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 70 back in December to 100. The stock put down a tight flat base above a rising 50-day moving average line.
The technical setup was ideal. The only concern was the first quarter earnings, which some thought might be weak. They were not and now the stock divers higher.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has pushed to a new peak and broke out to the upside before the price of the stock.
The strength in the AD line indicates strong buying as the stock has been basing.
This year, analysts forecast a 29% jump in earnings to $2.34 a share from $1.81 in 2011. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 43. That is high given the earnings growth rate. However, the company has been consistent in showing strong profits.
Going out to 2013, the Street looks for net to climb 29% to $3.02 a share from the anticipated $2.34 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should be just flat at 12 cents a share according to analysts. However, the highest estimate is at 15 cents a share. UA tends to slightly exceed the consensus. Nevertheless, the projected growth rate is not so hot. So, one needs to be watchful of the stock.
The company is benefiting from the sales of new products and an improving economy.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 118.. A protective stop can be placed near 95.
TTD rates UA move of a trading plan and just an average intermediate-term play. However, there are chances for a 2-for-1 stock split which could give the stock a boost.
Sponsorship: Average: The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 4.4% stake. It has held its positron steady. However, some top funds have been selling. 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund sold 228,899 shares and 5-star rated T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock Fund unloaded 223,900 shares. UA has 52 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 84% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Extremely Bearish. Insiders have been buyers using stock options at a price as low as 83 cents a share. They turned around and sold at $79.50 to $87.60 recently. Currently, 25 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Under Armour Inc. - (UA) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AOS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SBH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EL - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TYL - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Pawnshop stocks getting hammered down. TTD's short from Thursday was Gentex Corp. (GNTX) at 21.74. It is trading at 21.30 and working well for bears.
LSCC, based Hillsboro, Ore., produces standard semiconductor components. Annual revenues: $307 million. LSCC's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a loss for the first quarter. The company also lowered its outlook for the year. So far today, LSCC is trading a heavy 7.5 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.6 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted LSCC as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
LSCC reported a first quarter loss of 7 cents a share compared with a profit of 9 cents a year ago.
This year analysts are forecasting net will drop 47% to 22 cents a share from 41 cents a year ago.
The stock moved steadily lower in the morning hitting an intraday low of 5.52. It then lifted slightly and trended sideways.
LSCC's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $6.30 in the morning to $5.94. A key bearish trade came when a block of 100,000 shares crossed at $6.24, down from the prior block at $6.30.
LSCC makes high performance programmable logic devices and related software. Programmable logic devices are standard semiconductor components that can be configured by the end customer as specific logic functions, enabling shorter design cycle times and reduced development costs.
LSCC's daily chart shows the stock falling sharply today on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) resumes its down trend. That shows that the stock has been under consistent selling pressure for sometime.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LSCC for a decline to 4.20 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can e placed near 6.10.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LSCC - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
