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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List -Monday, April 21

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Ticker Tape Digest

“Professional Report”

Monday, April 21, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

TTD Quick Trade Stocks. These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about an  80% win rate.

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Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show

(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time)

Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - April 21

Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday
(Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Small list of breakouts today dominated by "special situation" plays.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Arena Resources Inc. (ARD) - 47.07, up 2.78  - Breakpoint 44.40

Profits to Soar 74% This Year, TTD Targets 58

  ARD, based in Tulsa, Okla., is an oil and gas producer. Annual revenues: $100 million. ARD breaks out from a 19-week, flat base today and hits a new high on a big expansion in volume. The stock is part of the strong acting oil and gas sector. Today, the price of crude in the futures market touched $125 a barrel. ARD's move comes on volume of 1.2 million shares, double the stock's normal daily volume of 528,000 shares.

  TTD's table shows three of the largest block trades the past two sessions. It is important to note that the price for each of the blocks moved higher. The first was a $42.55, the second at $44.90 and the third at $47.25.

  That showed consistent aggressive institutional buying.

 ARD owns interests in oil and gas properties located in Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas with proven reserves of more than 40 million barrels of oil equivalent.

 The company's primary interests are in properties in Texas and Oklahoma, where it has more than 60 producing wells. ARD's net yearly production is around 230,000 barrels of oil.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock's powerful bull market advance of the past 3 year. The move to a new high is very bullish and could well draw in more buying.

  TTD's performance chart shows that ARD has appreciated 105% the past 12 months, easily beating the S&P 500 index, which is down 5%. So the stock is a leader.  

  TTD's daily chart shows the clean breakout today from the base. Notice the base had  two shakeouts to the downside, which is good. That clears out a lot of the weak holders.

  The stock then spent several sessions near the top of the base, That is a good short-term consolidation pattern prior to the breakout.

  The stock's technicals are excellent. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending higher nicely.

  This year, analysts predict a 74% surge in profits to $1.77 a share from $1.02 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 26. Normally, that would be high for an oil stock. However, the strong earnings outlook makes the valuation acceptable.

  Next year, earnings are projected to climb 42% to $2.53 a share.

What makes ARD exciting near-term is that profits for the upcoming first quarter are expected to leap 151% to 47 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 50 cents a share. Second quarter net should rise 64%. ARD is benefiting from the high price for oil.

  Strategy Opinion: ARD's breakout today looks solid. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 58 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 44. TTD rates ARD a very good intermediate-term play that could appreciate 50% within the next 12 to 18 months.

 Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a big 8.3% stake. It was the largest buyer recently picking up 1.5 million shares. Another key buyer was 5-star rated Rainier Small/Mid Cap Equity Fund which purchased 247,000 shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Not made insider transaction, but that few that took place were sells. Four analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, up from one three months ago.


  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Arean Resources Inc. (ARD)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks


TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)

Natus Medical Inc. (BABY) - 19.86

Set a Stop Buy at 20 to Catch the Breakout

Medical Firm's Net to Climb 43% This Year, TTD Sees Shot at 25

 BABY, based in San Carlos, Ca., develops medical exams to diagnose medical disorders in fetuses and infants. Annual revenues: $120 million. BABY is a small cap medical play that has moved into position as a possible breakout. The stock is showing strong accumulation on the tape. With an acceleration in quarter earnings growth coming, TTD sees goo chances for a move higher.

  So far today BABY is trading 191,964 shares. Its average daily volume is 140,000 shares.

  The stock showed good tape action during the day. TTD's clip of the tape shows a sequence of trades where several blocks traded at $19.75 which was within a sequence started by a modest up tick.

  TTD highlighted BABY at our midsession show on the web.

 BABY's product lines include ALGO, a screening device to test newborn hearing. They also make Minimuff, an ear cover that reduces the noise an infant hears in neonatal intensive care units; and LED phototherapy systems to treat babies with jaundice.

 The company also makes the disposable products used with its systems, such as earphones, electrodes, tubes, and filters.

 TTD's long-term chart of BABY shows the stock with a big move higher from 2004 to 2006. The stock went into an intermediate-pullback. It has since rallied and is now in position to move to a new high.

  TTD sees a new high as a good possibility and it could well bring in strong buying.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock in a flat base over the past few months. There were two shakeouts to the downside. That is good. BABY did breakout from its base in early March. It did not work.

  However, the stock is now "reloaded" and is a good position to head higher.

  BABY's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is near a new peak.

  This year, analysts predict a 43% surge in net to 67 cents a share from 47 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 29, which TTD sees as reasonable.

  BABY's sales are growing at a 19% clip. The company restructured its divisions and overhauled its sales force. It is also aggressively making acquisitions.

  For the upcoming first quarter analysts predict a 36% increase in net and then in the second quarter an acceleration in earnings growth to 44%.

  Net for the first quarter is expected to come in at 10 cents a share, up from 7 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 11 cents a share. The company tends to report close to the consensus. TTD doesn't expect any earnings surprise.

  BABY said earlier this month that the underwriter for its planned offering of 770,000 shares exercised its over-allotment to purchase an additional 115,500 shares.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests accumulation of a partial stake in BABY with further buying to be done on a move over 20, which could come at any time. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 25 within a few months. A protective stop can be placed near 18. TTD rates BABY a good intermediate-term play because of its strong earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was UMB Scout Small Cap Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 225,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated ING VP Small Cap Opportunities Fund picked up 91,000 shares. BABY has 21 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Bullish. Some significant insider buying lately. David Nierenberg purchased 175,000 shares at $18.27. TTD sees that as very bullish. Six analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

Nucor Corp. (NUE) - 74.23

Set a Stop Buy at 75.30 to catch the Breakout

Stock showing good accumulation. Steel Firm's net to jump 32% this year

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR) - 32.16

Set a Stop Buy at 33.50 to catch the Breakout

Oil stock moves twoard a breakout. Net to soar 55% this year.

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today with some medical plays falling. Bears be selective.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Allergan Inc. (AGN) - 54.04, off 2.14

Undercuts Support, TTD Sees Decline to 46

  AGN, based in Irvine, Ca., is a specialty chemical firm that makes Botox for the cosmetic market. Annual revenues: $3.9 billion. AGN's stock breaks below key support near 55 today as volume picks up. The stock was 70 earlier this year. So far today, AGN is trading 3.4 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.1 million shares.

 So far today, the stock is down about 2 points.

  The tape action was very bearish late on Friday. TTD's clip of the tape captures a big block of 71,800 shares crossing at $56.19. That was with a sequence started by a modest down tick from $56.20. The action showed big institutional selling pressure.

  AGN is one of the largest specialty pharmaceutical firms in the world. Botox accounts for 33% of sales.

  Through its acquisition of Inamed in early 2006, the company increased its proportion of the cosmetic surgical market and now sells breast implants, dermal fillers, and products to treat obesity.

 Roughly half of the company's sales come from eye-care pharmaceuticals, led by Alphagan P and Lumigan for glaucoma and dry-eye drug Restasis.

  In March the Justice Department issues a subpoena for the production of documents relating to promotional practices  for Botox for therapeutic use.

  This year, analysts forecast a 19% increase in AGN's net to $2.58 a share from $2.18 a year ago. First quarter net should be up 12%.

  TTD's daily chart of AGN shows the stock's breakdown in February. It tried to rally, but is now rolling over. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken down sharply and confirms heavy selling pressure. TTD sees AGN as a trading short and falling to 46 within the next few months.


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)