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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Very few breakouts today as stock markt declines broadly led by airline issues. Bulls be patient and selective.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR) - 33.75, up 0.46  - Breakpoint 33.10

Profits to Jump 55% This Year, TTD Targets 41

  DNR, based in Plano, Tex., is an oil and gas producer. Annual revenues: $972 million. DNR edges out from a ten-week, cup-and-handle base today. The move carries the stock to a new high. DNR is trading 2.4 million shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 2 million shares. TTD highlighted the stock as an accumulation buy about two weeks.

  It was featured at our midsession show on the Web.

  TTD's clip of the tape today shows DNR with a big block of 21,100 shares crossing in the morning at $33.40, an up tick from the prior trade at $33.34. The action showed aggressive institutional buying.

  DNR is part of the strong acting energy sector.

  The company does most of exploration in the Gulf of Mexico area. DNR is benefiting from the rise in energy prices. The stock, the past year, has doubled from 15 to 31.  TTD's performance chart shows DNR appreciating 105% the past 12 months compared with a 5% decline for the S&P 500 index.

   The company made a presentation at the IPAA 2008 Oil and Gas Investment Symposium in New York on April 7.

  Today, a brokerage firm raised its target price for the stock to $40 from $32.50 .TTD agrees!

  DNR is an oil and gas producer using conventional and specialized recovery methods in Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas Barnett Shale.

 The company conducts tertiary oil recovery by injecting naturally occurring CO2 from its Jackson Dome field to drive more oil out of mature wells. In 2007, daily oil and gas production averaged 44,115 equivalent barrels per day and year-end reserves were 195 million barrels of oil equivalent.

  TTD's long-term chart shows DNR in a fabulous bull market. Since 2003, the stock has soared from 3 to 31.

  TTD's daily chart shows that DNR broke out late on Monday. So far today it has edged  higher.

  DNR has shown clear resistance around 33. So today's push into that area is bullish. The key will be for DNR to clear it convincingly.

  The shape of the recent cup-and-handle base is good. However, it does not show the good contraction near bottom one would like to see.

   This year analysts are forecasting a 47% jump in earnings to $1.39 a share from 95 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Next year, the Street is forecasting a 17% rise in profits to $1.63 a share from the anticipated $1.39 a share this year.

  Net for the upcoming first quarter will be very strong. Analysts are forecasting a 399% surge to 32 cents a share from 6 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 42 cents a share.

TTD sees good chances for a mild upside surprise in earnings. The past three quarters, DNR topped the consensus Street estimate by 3 to 8 cents a share.

  The company is benefiting from high production levels and higher oil prices.

  Strategy Opinion: DNR's breakout points the stock toward TTD's target of 41. A protective stop can be placed near 31, which is tight.  TTD rates DNR a good intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a 4.7% stake. It was a recent buyer of 5.6 million shares. Also, 4-star rated Arisan Mid Cap Fund purchased 1 million shares and 3-star rated RS Global Natural Fund 1.8 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Some light buying by insiders, who turned around and sold. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.


  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Denbury Resources Inc.  (DNR)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion   YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure   YES
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 11 0 3

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 20

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks today. Airline issues braking down hard after several report losses. TTD's short from Monday, Omnicell (OMCL) falls 4.96 to 12.01 for a great 29% return for bears in one session. Also sliding further south was Allergan (AGN) which declined 1.31 to 52.64. It was TTD's feature short from Monday.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS) - 20.19, off 2.34

Weak Earnings, TTD Sees Drop to 16

   NVLS, based in San Jose, Ca., makes chemical and physical vapor deposition systems used in the production of semiconductors. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. NVLS gaps lower today in heavy trading to trigger a TTD short play. The stock's decline was due to its weak first quarter earnings and outlook for the year. The stock was downgraded by some brokerage firms.

 NVLS is off about 2 points so far today. Volume is running at 8.9 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 4.5 million shares.

  The stock showed heavy selling in the morning. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 100,000 shares crossing on a modest  down tick to $20.20.

 NVLS reported a 70% drop in first quarter net and a slowdown in sales. It posted net of  15 cents a share, down from 42 cents a year ago. Revenue fell 21% to $314.7 million.

Analysts were expecting earnings of 16 cents a share on revenue of $315.5 million.

  NVLS' chemical and physical vapor systems deposit a variety of conductive and insulating films on semiconductor wafers. The company also sells wafer photoresist cleaning systems and entered the chemical-mechanical polishing market with the acquisition of SpeedFam-IPEC.

  This year, analysts predict a 33% drop in net to $1.11 a share from $1.67 a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart of NVLS shows the gape drop cutting through key support at 20.63. The stock's accumulation - distribution line is in down trend indicating heavy selling pressure. TTD is targeting NVLS for a drop to 16 within the next few months. We view it as a trading short for bears.


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)