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Ticker Tape Digest

 Wednesday-April 22, 2009

                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

*** TTD was delayed today due to Earthlink server problems in Atlanta ****

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts today - 7

Stocks Screened - 8,200

 Bull's Strategy - Breakout list expands a bit, but market sells off late in the day. Bulls be selective. The near-term indicators indicate a bit more on the downside. Earnings still having an impact on individual stocks and the market averages.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) - 42.19, up 3.71 - Breakpoint 39

Profits to Rise 19% This Year, TTD Targets 50

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWLD  -  AVERAGE

 BWLD, based in Minneapolis. operates a chain of  casual dining restaurant that specializes in serving chicken wings spun in one of the firm's 14 original sauces, alcohol, and sports. Annual revenues: $420 million. BWLD, along with several other restaurant stocks, moves sharply higher today. BWLD's push higher sends it up and out from a six-week flat base. The stock is near a 52-week high, which is bullish.

  BWLD is trading 1.4 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 419,000 shares.

  BWLD drove sharply higher in the morning. It peaked around noon and then drifted a bit lower in the afternoon. It held up well given the stock market's late afternoon selloff.

  Oppenheimer upgraded the stock on Tuesday.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades for BWLD. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $36.60 to $43.20. The pattern of the prices for the blocks shows good institutional buying for BWLD.

  The company owns, operates and franchises nearly 560 restaurants in 38 states. Each restaurant has an open layout and an extensive multimedia system, including approximately 40 televisions and 7 projection screens, providing different forms of entertainment to all customers.

   BWLD came public at 10 in late 2003. The stock peaked at 47 in 2007. (see TTD's long-term chart)  Since then it has an up an down pattern. Right now it is in the "up phase"

   TTD's performance chart shows BWLD's stock appreciating 75% the past 12 months. It has easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down 35% during the same time. So, at this point BWLD is a leader.

 TTD's daily chart of BWLD shows the stock punching through the top of its base with strong volume. The widening of the spread is very bullish showing ease of price movement higher, despite the market selloff late in the day.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is solidly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend. It shows there has been no unusual selling. The pattern of buying is supportive of a move higher.

  BWLD's earnings this year should increase 19% to $1.68 a share from $1.41 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  25. That is a bit high for a restaurant stock, but okay now given the current earnings growth rate.

  Going out to 2010, the Street projects a 23% gain in net to $2.07 a share from the anticipated $1.68 a share this year.

  BWLD will report first quarter earnings on Tuesday, April 28.

  The Street is looking for a 22% rise in net to 46 cents a share from 38 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 51 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a mild upside surprise. The prior quarter BWLD topped the consensus estimate by 4 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion: BWLD's breakout today is impressive. TTD suggests scaling in. We are targeting the stock for a move to 50. The restaurant stocks are hot. A protective stop can be placed near 39. TTD rates BWLD an average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Good. One of the largest fund buyers recently was 5-star rated Van Kampen Small Cap Growth Fund which purchased 101,000 shares. The largest fund holder is 2-star rated Fidelity Growth Strategies Fund with a 2.1% stake. BWLD has 17 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 5.3 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been doing more buying that selling in recent months. But the buying has been light. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

                     Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Profile Rating

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.  - (BWLD) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 13 0 1

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PZZA  - BELOW  AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SMG  - BELOW  AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWHC  -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SY  -  BELOW AVERAGE

Ticker Tape Digest's

Pre-Market Breakout Watch List

Stocks with Strong Projected Earnings Growth

Selections for - Thursday, April 23, 2009

Ticker Tape Digest provides a list of potential breakout stocks from our screen of companies that will show some of the strongest earnings gains. One of the best ways to play these stocks is to study the list and then place a stop buy order to catch the stock on the breakout.

One can take either a full position on the breakout if they are aggressive, or scale-in looking to add to the stake later if they are conservative. TTD's premarket breakout watch list gives you a great opportunity "to be prepared for the next key breakout stock just before it happens." The list will be updated daily and the screen monthly.

TTD's Breakout Watch List Set up on April 1, 2009

Latest prices are April 22

Stocks with Gain in blue have surpassed their breakpoint and have broken out of their base.

Stocks with Gain in red have not broken out of their base yet.

Guide: Symbol=Ticker, Name=Corporate name, Entry is the buy price to enter on the breakout, Last=prior close, Change=change from last close to prior, Date=date of price of close etc, Gain in blue is price above breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is price below breakpoint (entry)., % Gain in blue is % over breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is % below breakpoint (entry)

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks. Bear side remains selective. Bears try to focus on firms with disappointing fundamentals.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Phase Forward Inc. (PFWD) - 10.05, off 1.05

Net to Drop 13% in First Quarter, TTD Sees Slide to 7.50

  PFWD, based in Waltham, Ma., provides software products and services for use in the clinical trial component of global research and development. Annual revenues: $170 million. PFWD's stock cuts below key support near 11 today setting off a TTD short play. The company should report lower earnings for the first quarter. So far today, PFWD is trading a heavy 2 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 379,000 shares.

  PFWD opened lower today and trended down until around noon. It had a slight lift in the afternoon.

  TTD's clip shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks working its way down from $11.05 to $9.96. The tape action shows clear heavy institutional selling pressure.

  PFWD's software performs such functions as capturing and managing clinical data and seeks to automate certain elements of the clinical trial process. The systems speed up the introduction of new therapies.

 The company has around 220 customers, primarily pharmaceutical, biotechnology, clinical research companies.

  Analysts expect net for the first quarter to decline 13% to 8 cents a share from 9 cents a year ago. The lowest estimate on the Street is at 6 cents a share.

  For the year, analysts look for a 3% rise in net to 36 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock in a down trend and then trying to form a bottom in the low-teens. However, today, it breaks below key support with heavy volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line is rolling over showing clear selling pressure.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PFWD for a decline to 7.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 11.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)