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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 19 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 19 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 19
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Large number of breakout stocks today with some good plays. Housing and oil stocks on the move. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market continues to show good resilience even though it appears close to a near-term top.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROVI - AVERAGE |
ROVI, based in Santa Clara, Ca., was formerly known as Macrovision Solutions. Annual revenues: $484 million. ROVI's stock breaks out from a seven-week flat base today and makes an 8-year high. The stock has been a leading performer in this new bull market. So far today, ROVI is trading 1.6 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 775,000 shares. 
ROVI's 10-minute chart shows the stock closing weak on Thursday. However, today it opened strong and broke over its key upside resistance line. The stock continued to work high.
As we move into the late part of the trading day, ROVI is holding its own well.
TTD's clip of ROVI's tape shows the big block trades.
One can see the price of the blocks climbing from late Thursday at $37.67 to $39.70 by mid-day Friday. That shows good institutional buying.
A key trade was a big block of 13,300 shares that crossed at $39.70. That was up from the prior block trade at $39.28.
ROVI provides a set of media solutions.
They can be embedded in a customers’ products and services and used by end consumers.
ROVI's services include interactive program guides; embedded licensing technologies standards based media connectivity middleware, media recognition technologies, licensing of its database of descriptive information about television, movie, music, books and game content.
The Company sells its products to cable, satellite, telecommunications, mobile and Internet service providers. It also sells to consumer electronics manufacturers .In January 2009, the Company sold its TVG Network business and, in February 2009, it sold TV Guide Network and TV Guide Online businesses.
ROVI's performance chart shows the stock appreciating 110% the past 12 months compared with a 45% gain for the S&P 500 index.
ROVI's long-term chart shows the stock making an 8-year high. In effect, it has broken out to the upside form a long-term bottoming pattern. 
ROVI's daily chart shows the stock with a strong move up from 28 in February to 38. The stock then formed a tight base and today it beaks out with a good widening of the spread (range from high to low).
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend too and broke out before the price of the stock. It was a good lead indicator. It also confirms that there was good underlying buying in the stock.
This year, analysts forecast a 27% jump in profits to $1.70 a share from $1.34 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22, which is reasonable.
Going out to 2011, the Street looks for a 22% gain in net to $2.08 a share from the anticipated $1.70 this year.
First quarter numbers come out on May 6.
The Street is looking for a 17% increase in net to 36 cents a share from 31 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 39 cents a share. The company has in the past few quarters surprised big on the upside two out of the past four. So, TTD sees chances for an upside surprise for the first quarter.
The company has been coming out with new products. The latest was a personal Media Manager for individuals to reorganize media data.
Strategy Opinion: ROVI is acting exceptionally strong. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 47. A protective stop can be placed near 37. TTD rates ROVI an above intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The top fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund with a 2.9% stake. It was a recent buyer of 750,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund was a recent buyer of 320,128 shares and 5-star rated Lord Abbett Small Cap Value Fund a purchaser of 341,672 shares. ROVI has 104 million shares.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around sold. The latest selling was at $38. Right now, 13 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Rovi Corp. - (ROVI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HMSY - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SBH - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RVBD - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNCR - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today with special bear situations dominating the list. TTD's short play from Thursday was Ebay Inc. (EBAY) - 24.53, down 1.76. Today, it is trading at 24.52.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
KG, based in Bristol, Ten., develops and sells drugs and animal health products. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. KG's stock falls sharply today on expanding volume. The decline was linked to the FDA not approving a new opioid painkiller drug developed by Acura Pharmaceuticals and King. So far today, KG 12.3 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 6 million shares. 
KG's stock fell in the morning and trended lower until about 11 where it hit a momentary bottom at 10.25. The stock then bounced up slightly, but then began to fade again.
KG's tape action shows the big block trades late Thursday and early on Friday. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $11.15 to $10.42. A key trade was a big block of 42,000 shares that crossed at $10.52. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $10.87.
KG does basic research and develops and makes drugs.
The company's makes pain medicines, hospital products and legacy brands, all of which are for use in humans.
Its auto-injector business makes medicines for use in humans that are delivered using an auto-injector.
Its animal health business is focused on medicated feed additives.
The FDA advisory panel recommended the agency not approve the opioid painkiller.
This year analysts forecast an 18% decline in KG's earnings to 89 cents a share from $1.10 a year ago
KG's chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting KG for a decline to 8 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 11.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
