Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 23, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Monday - April 23, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Quality of Breakouts - Small list of breakouts, but some interesting plays.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Mixed. Market averages flipping as stock market is now in a near-term pull back. Flood of earnings will be coming now and impacting stock action.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HLNE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
HLNE, based near Philadelphia, provides global private market investment services. Annual revenues: $181 million. HLNE's stock moves higher Monday and breaks out from a 14-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.
So far today, HLNE is trading 112,664 shares. Its average daily volume is 158,000 shares.
HLNE is expected to report net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in March around mid June.
HLNE's stock broke out in the morning and raced to a peak of $41.21.
The stock then faded back and used its breakpont as intraday support. It lifted into the close as the stock market shaved some of its losses.
Tape Action
HLNE's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $40.15 in the prior session to as high as $40.88.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,000 shares crossed the tape at $40.55.
That was up from the prior block late on Friday at $40.15 on 4,400 shares.
Business
HLNE manages and monitors portfolios of private markets funds and direct investments.
It helps clients to access a set of investment opportunities around the world.
The company provides services covering private markets, including private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, natural resources, growth equity and venture capital.
These solutions are constructed from a range of investment types, including primary investments in funds managed by third-parties.
Charts
HLNE's 12-month performance chart shows the stock surging 116% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
The stock is a leader. Insider activity was not available.
HLNE's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2017 at $17.85. The stock has been driving sharply higher with just minor pullbacks. It has almost tripled since coming public.
HLNE's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $30 in November to a peak near $40 by January.
The stock then put down its cup-and-handle base.
The breakout clears resistance and hits a new high.
That is bullish and could draw in more buying Tuesday.
Earnings Outlook:
HLNE is scheduled to report net for the fiscal year ended in March in June. The Street is predicting a 54% surge in net to $1.40 a share from the 91 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 29.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter should be up 36% to 34 cents a share from 25 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 42 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
The company topped the Street estimate the past four quarters by 17 cents a share, one cent, 7 cents and 2 cents.
Looking out to fiscal 2019 ending in March, analysts predict a 25% increase in net to $1.75 a share from the anticipated $1.40 for fiscal 2018.
Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in June is expected to be up 33% to 44 cents a share from 33 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HLNE for a move to $48 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near $38.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish- HLNE has scored some big gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish - HLNE rose 2 times after the past 3 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success Extremely Bullish - HLNE rose an average of 4.9% in April and 8.1% in May the past few years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
13% |
1/9/2018 |
35.33 |
39.91 |
1/23/2018 |
41% |
11/7/2017 |
28.29 |
39.91 |
1/23/2018 |
66% |
9/19/2017 |
24 |
39.91 |
1/23/2018 |
98% |
5/26/2017 |
20.14 |
39.91 |
1/23/2018 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Hamilton Lane Inc. (HLNE) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TCF - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FFIN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TNC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market has lost upside momentum and now is vulnerable to a further decline.
ELF, formerly J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc., is a cosmetic firm selling a variety of products. Annual revenues: $270 million. ELF's stock falls Monday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, ELF is trading a heavy 641,526 shares, double its average daily volume of $317,000 shares.
ELF's stock falls sharply for the second straight session and now undercuts key technical support.
ELF's stock moved lower in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock touched an intraday low of $17.14 in the morning. The stock then lifted and then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
ELF's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $17.88 in the prior session to as low as $17.23.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $17.51.
That was down from the prior block trade at $17.87 on 6,219 shares.
Then later in the session a massive block of 121,900 shares crossed the tape at $17.43.
That was down from the prior block at $17.49 on 3,307 shares.
Business
ELF sells products for eyes, lips and face to consumers through its retail customers and other purchasers.
The company sells eyeshadow, eyeliner, mascara and eyelashes, eyebrows, concealer and primer, brushes and tools, and sets and palettes.
It also sells lipstick, lip gloss, lipliner, and lip care and brushes.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting an 8% decline in net to 59 cents a share from 64 cents the year before.
Net for the first quarter is expected to be flat at 9 cents a share. However, in the second quarter, analysts predict a 42% drop in profits to 7 cents a share from 12 cents the year before.
Charts:
ELF's daily chart shows the stock trending lower. It tried to form a bottom. However, Monday, ELF cuts below key technical support
ELF's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 38% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ELF for a decline to $13.30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $19.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. ELF rose just 2 times after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Extremely Bearish. ELF declined an average of 8% in April and 10.2% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ELF - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)