By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Modest number of breakout today, Bulls remain selective and watchful. Stock market still in a trading range within an up trend. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CSL - ABOVE AVERAGE
CSL, based in Charlotte, N.C., makes construction, automotive and industrial products. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. CSL's stock breaks out today from a 10-week flat base with a good expansion in volume. The breakout was triggered by stronger than expected first quarter earnings. So far today, CSL is trading a heavy 1.5 million shares, 6 times its normal daily volume of 254,000 shares.
TTD highlighted CSL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday. The stock did breakout earlier this month, but then faded back into the base.
Today's breakout is impressive supported by strong profits.
CSL's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning, then trending sideways through most of the day and then spiking higher again in the late afternoon. It was a very impressive move.
CSL reported first quarter net jumped to 94 cents a share from 53 cents a year ago.
The 94 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 60 cents a share an also the highest estimate of 68 cents a share. That was a big upside earnings surprise. Sales for the quarter were up sharply.
TTD's clip of the tape shows CSL's big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $50.80 to a peak of $55.22.
A key bullish block came in the morning when a block of 16,653 shares crossed the tape at 55. That was up from the prior block trade at $50.
CSL makes a variety of products across a broad range of industries.
They include roofing, construction, trucking, automotive, foodservice, industrial equipment, lawn and garden and aircraft manufacturing.
The company markets their products both as a component supplier to original equipment manufacturers, as well as directly to end users.
CSL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 28% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index.
One can see on our chart there has been some recent insider buying. That is encouraging for bulls. Also, insider selling has slowed.
CSL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 18 back in 2000 to a peak of 51 in 2007. The stock then fell back to 17 during the bear market. CSL bottomed in late 2008. It has since worked higher. The push to a new high could bring in more buying Tuesday. The strong profits are a bullish enticement.
CSL's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 31 in early October to around 50 by January. The stock then formed a flat base. Today's breakout is impressive coming with a gap move, widening of the trading spread and expanding volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish. It has been mostly bullish for the past five months.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has complimented the price of the stock. There has been no unusual selling pressure.
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 27% jump in earnings to $3.75 a share from $2.95 a year ago. That estimate should get boosted. The highest estimate is at $3.90 a share.
Net for the second quarter is expected to climb 31% to $1.14 a share from 87 cents a year ago. The Street has been bumping up the estimate. The highest estimate is at $1.18 a share.
Going out to 2013, Wall Street expects a 14% rise in net to $4.27 a share from the anticipated $3.75 in 2012.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CSL for a move to 65 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 51.
TTD rates CSL a good intermediate-term play that is especially attractive to value investors.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is JP Morgan Mid Cal Value fund with a 2.5% stake. The 5-star rated fund has kept its position steady. Also, 5-star rated Eaton Vance Atlanta Capital SMID cap Fund was a recent purchaser and now holds a 1.4% stake. CSL has 62.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 86% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Light selling by insiders. The latest was around $48. Five analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Carlisle Cos. - (CSL)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALGN - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CNI - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MAIN - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - USPH - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today. Bulls be selective as stock market is still in a trading range. TTD's short from Monday was Home Inns and Hotels Management Inc. (HMIN) at 24.25. The stock has declined to 24.08 so far today.
NFLX, based in Los Gatos, Ca., is an online movie rental firm. Annual revenues: $3.4 billion. NFLX's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a loss for the first quarter against a profit a year ago. NFLX's stock has been under pressure since topping out in July of 2011. So far today, NFLX is trading a heavy 15.4 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 4.6 million shares.
NFLX reported a first quarter loss of 8 cents a share compared with a profit of $1.11 a year ago. The Street was expecting a loss of 28 cents a share. So, the loss was less than expected. However, the stock still reacted bearishly.
NFLX's stock gapped lower, staged a modest lift in the morning and then trended sideways the rest of the day saddle with a sharp loss.
NFLX's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $106.11 to as low as $84.50.
NFLX is the largest online movie rental subscription service in the U.S.
The company provides subscribers access to about 18,000 movie, television and other filmed entertainment titles. The standard subscription plan allows subscribers to have three titles out at the same time with no due dates, late fees or shipping charges for a monthly fee.
The company said for the second quarter it expects results to range from a loss 10 cents a share to a profit of 14 cents a share. The Street consensus is at a loss of 19 cents a share. For the year, analysts expect a loss of 33 cents a share compared with a profit of $4.26 a year ago.
NFLX's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned down indicating clear heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NFLX for a decline to 75 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 90.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -NFLX - BELOW AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)