Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 23, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - April 25, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Very selective list of breakouts. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Bearish. Major averages for the daily and weekly still bearish. Bulls be patient.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WRB - ABOVE AVERAGE |
WRB, based in Greenwich, Ct., is an insurance holding company. Annual revenues: $7.5 billion. WRB's stock moves higher Wednesday and breaks out from a 13-week, cup-and-handle base. TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, WRB is trading 558,706 shares. Its average daily volume is 393,000 shares.
The breakout was triggered by WRB's report of better-than-expected earnings.
WRB reported net for the first quarter of $1.30 a share. That topped the Street estimate of 89 cents a share.
WRB gapped higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint.
The stock reached an intraday high of $79.74 in the morning.
The stock then faded back to $75.42, but then gradually worked a bit higher the rest of the day.
Tape Action
WRB's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $74.23 in the prior session to as high as $78.85 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came late on Tuesday when a block of 37,313 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $74.32.
That was up from the prior block trade at $74.23 on 6,600 shares.
Business
WRB operates through via Insurance and Reinsurance-Global.
The firm;s insurance unit handles commercial insurance.
It operates in the U.S., U.K.., Europe, South America, Canada, Mexico, Scandinavia, Asia and Australia.
Its Insurance units are Acadia Insurance, American Mining Insurance Group, Berkley Accident and Health, Berkley Agribusiness Risk Specialists, Berkley Aviation and Berkley Canada.
Its reinsurance consists Berkley Re America, Berkley Re Asia Pacific, Berkley Re Direct and Berkley Re UK.
Charts
WRB's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 13% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have not been active lately.
WRB's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $30 back in 2011 to $76. The move has been a steady climb with only modest pullbacks. WRB is not that volatile. It has a beta of 0.78 versus 1.0 for the stock market.
WRB's daily chart shows the stock breaking ou from its cup-and-handle base with a gap move and a widening of the daily spread.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a robust 44% surge in net to $3.54 a share from the $2.46 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a more modest 8% increase in net to $3.83 a share from the anticiapted $3.54 this year.
Quarterly earnings growth will show an acceleration.
Net for the second quarter is expected to climb 28% to 83 cents a share from the 65 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 91 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Profits for the third quarter are expected to surge 150% to 90 cents a share from 36 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WRB for a move to $90 off this breakout. A protective stop buy can be placed near $72.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Modestly Bullish. WRB has tended to score just modest gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish. WRB rose 8 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Modestly Bullish. WRB rose an average of 0.8% in April and 1.6% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
1% |
3/9/2018 |
71.99 |
72.62 |
3/12/2018 |
7% |
2/13/2017 |
68.20 |
72.98 |
3/15/2017 |
23% |
11/17/2016 |
59 |
72.98 |
3/15/2017 |
12% |
6/18/2015 |
51.86 |
58.16 |
8/14/2015 |
9% |
1/22/2013 |
40.56 |
44.31 |
4/15/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating W.R. Berkley Corp. (WRB) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IART - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RCKY - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FBNC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WWE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 20 - max.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks as earnings reports that disappoint put pressue on many of the stocks.
IPHI, based in Sunnyvale, Ca., makes analog and mixed signal semiconductors for the communications and datacenter markets. Annual revenues: $348 million. IPHI's stock falls sharply Wednesday undercutting key technical support.
TTD sees more on the downside. The drop was due to disappointing earnings.
So far today, IPHI is trading a heavy 2.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 799,000 shares.
The company repored a loss for the first quarter of 5 cents a share. That was in line with Street expectations by eight analysts.
IPHI's stock took a dive in the morning falling to $27.12.
The staged a rally back to $29.93 in the morning. However, in the afternoon the stock fell steadily to closer near its low for the day.
Tape Action
IPHI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $31.42 in the prior session to as low as $27.71.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 22,786 shares crossed the tape at $31.09.
That was down from the prior block late on Tuesday at $31.42 on 146,916 shares.
Business
IPHI 's solutions provide an interface between analog signals and digital information in telecom systems, enterprise networking equipment and datacenters.
Its semiconductor solutions cover bandwidth bottlenecks in networks and enable the rollout of communications and datacenter infrastructures.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 47% drop in earnings to 80 cents a share from the $1.52 the year before.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to tumble 71% to 10 cents a share from the 35 cents the year before.
Charts:
IPHI's daily chart shows the stock falling from $44 back in December to a low of $23.65 by February. The stock staged a rally to $33, but has now rolled over and broken to the downside.
IPHI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 38% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $25 back in February. They were recent sellers at $30 to $32.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IPHI for a decline to $22 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $29.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bearish. IPHI rose just 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. IPHI rose an average of 3.6% in May but declined 4.5% in Juney the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPHI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)