Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, Aprl 22, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - April 25, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Good number of breakouts getting a boost from earnings. Bulls should be selective.
Stock market - Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.
Comment - TTD sees the market still holding well. Earnings of course are a big factor. So, one needs to be watchful.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Some earnings beats for Thursday - AEM, NCI, HEES, SAH, APC and VLO.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NOW - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NOW, based in Santa Clara, Ca., provides enterprise cloud computing solutions that manage and automate services for companies. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. NOW breaks out Thursday from a six-week, flat base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high at $269.26. The stock came public back in 2012 at $24.75.
So far today, NOW is trading a heavy 4.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 1.7 million shares.
TTD highlighted NOW as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
NOW reported earnings of 67 cents a share for the first quarter. That topped the consensus estimate of 54 cents a share.
NOW's stock gapped higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
The stock reached an intraday high of 269.26 in the morning.
It then pulled back to around $260 and trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
NOW's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $250 in the prior session to as high as $266.59.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 13,700 shares crossed the tape at $262.10
That was up from the prior block late on Wednesday at $250 on 16,138 shares.
Near the close a block of 157,481 shares (duplicated) crossed at $260.69.
That came on a down tick from the prior trade at $260.85 on 764 shares.
It indicated institutional profit taking.
Business
NOW's cloud-based services provide workflow solutions, and focuses on service management for customer support, human resources and security.
The platform also enables customers to create, by themselves or with partners, their own service-oriented business applications throughout the enterprise.
The company delivers its software through the Internet as a service.
It operates data centers in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, the U.K. and U.S.
Charts
NOW's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 66% versus a 10% gain for the stock. It is a leader.
Insiders were buyers using stock options $9 to $81 a share. They were recent sellers at $217 to $244 a share.
NOW's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $25 back in 2013 to a peak $91 by late 2015.
The stock went into a long-term consolidation. It broke out in late 2016 and has since surged to its all-time high of $269 Thursday.
NOW's daily chart shows the stock breaking out back in January off its earnings report.
The stock ran up to $252 and based again.
Now it breaks out once more off its earnings report.
The breakout comes with good volume.
The CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 26% jump in net to $3.13 a share from the $2.49 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 83. That is high.
Looking out to 2020, the Street predicts a 40% spurt in net to $4.39 a share from the anticipated $3.13 this year.
Quarterly earnings will be strong.
Net for the second quarter is expected to climb 35% to 66 cents a share from the 49 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 75 cents a share. Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock.
TTD sees good chances for an earnings beat. The company topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 13 cents a share, 13 cents, 8 cents and 6 cents.
Profits for the third quarter are projected to climb 35% to 92 cents a share from the 68 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NOW for a move to $300 within the next few months. There is also a chance for a stock split which could boost the stock.
A protective stop can be placed near $252.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - NOW scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Very Bullish - NOW rose 8 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. - NOW averaged a gain of 5.1% in May but a decline of 3% in June the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
34% |
1/31/2019 |
194.57 |
260.69 |
Still in play |
3% |
6/1/2018 |
181.51 |
186.42 |
6/6/2018 |
32% |
1/4/2018 |
131.67 |
173.96 |
3/13/2018 |
16% |
5/4/2017 |
94.94 |
110.54 |
7/27/2017 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Servicenow Inc. (NOW) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -CINF - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AAN - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AXP - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FRPT - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 13
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks as several issues getting hit on disappointing earnings. Aggressive Bears can be venturesome.
ALKS, based in Dublin, Ireland, is a biotech firm working on treatments for the nervous system. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, ALKS is trading a heavy 3.5 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 1.1 million shares.
The company reported a loss for the first quarter, excluding items, of 17 cents a share. That was in line with Street estimates.
However, analysts said the company had disappointing sales of Aristada.
TTD highlighted ALKS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
ALKS's stock gapped lower in the morning and under cut key technical support $51.45.
The stock touched an intraday low of $29.28 in the afternoon
It staged a sharp rally in the afternoon to get to $32, but then faded picking up heavy volume.
Tape Action
ALKS's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $34.75 in the prior session to as low as $29.91.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $32.55.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $34.75 on 91,965 shares late on Wednesday.
Business
ALKS is a biotech firm producing products to treat central nervous system disorders.
They treat schizophrenia, depression, addiction and multiple sclerosis. The company's products include Aristada, Vivitrol and invega sustenna.
Earnings:
This year analysts are forecasting a 41% drop in net to 36 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.
Looking out to 2020, they see a 20% decline in net to 29 cents a share from the anticipated 36 cents this year.
For the second quarter this year, they predict a loss of 10 cents a share compared with a profit of 29 cents the year before.
Charts:
ALKS's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with a big pick up in volume. It is resuming its down trend after reaching a peak at 66 last year.
ALKS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 35% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $8 using stock options. They were sellers at $32 to $36 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ALKS for a decline to $25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $31.80.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - ALKS rose 4 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. - ALKS averaged a gain of 8.2% in May but a decline of 3.5% in June the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALKS - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)