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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, April 26 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday April 26 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Good number of breakout stocks today with some interesting plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market continues to show good resilience even though it appears close to a near-term top.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCLN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PCLN, based in Norwalk, Ca., is a global online travel service company. Annual
revenues: $2.2 billion. PCLN's stock drives higher today to clear a six-week flat base. The stock is a leader and part of TTD's Top-20 Long-Term Plays. (see report). So far today, PCLN is trading 1.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 839,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted PCLN as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
PCLN's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning on strong volume.
The stock continued higher clearing the breakpoint line with room to spare. It trended sideways in the afternoon.
The company will report first quarter net on May 10. The Street is looking for a 73% surge in net to $1.49 a share from 86 cents a year ago.
TTD's clip of
the tape shows PCLN's recent big blocks. 
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $253.49 to a peak of $263.52. The tape action indicates good and steady institutional buying interest.
PCLN offers customers a range of travel services, including hotel rooms, car rentals, airline tickets, vacation packages, cruises and destination services.
It offers hotel room reservations in some 75 countries.
In the U.S., the company offers customers the ability to purchase travel via Name Your Own Price service, which allows the customers to make offers for travel services at discounted prices. The Company is also engaged in offering financial services through Priceline Mortgage Company LLC.
PCLN's 12-month performance shows the stock appreciating 200% versus a 45% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is a leader.
PCLN's long-term chart shows the stock with a sensational run up from 18
back in 2005 to a peak of 234. The stock has bounced back strongly from the bear
market downdraft in 2008 which pulled it back to 45. 
PCLN's daily chart shows the stock with a recent strong run up form 160 to 260. The move included a breakout from a cup-and-handle base at 240. The new flat base is short. However, PCLN has cleared it.
The breakout looks good as volume is almost double normal. PCLN has a beta of 0.94 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the issue is not volatile even though its price moves a lot. That is due to it being high.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend indicating good buying pressure.
First quarter net should be $1.49 a share. The highest estimate is at $1.56 a share. The past four quarters, PCLN has topped the consensus by a wide margin ranging from 12% to 30% more than the consensus. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise.
PCLN strong earnings now indicate that the travel industry is bouncing back from the recession.
This year, analysts have been forecasting 2010 net for PCLN will jump 34% to $10.54 a share from $7.87 a year ago. They have been boosting their estimates.
Going out to 2011, the Street looks for a 23% gain in net to #12.91 a share from the anticipated $1.0.54.
Strategy Opinion: PCLN is a leader that is breaking out with a strong earnings outlook. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 320. A protective stop can be placed near 260. TTD rates PCLN a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Contrafund, 5-star rated, with a 2.1% stake. It was a recent buyer of 87,100 shares. A large key buyer recently was 3-star rated CGM Focus Fund, which purchased 673,300 shares. PCLN has 44 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light buyers of the stock recently. They turned around and sold. Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Priceline.com Inc. - (PCLN) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PLX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SYK - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - INT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATEC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Very few short plays today. Bears remain conservative. Stock Market remains at a potential near-term peak.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
CSR, based in China, makes surveillance and safety products and develops surveillance and safety related software in China. Annual revenues: $580 million. CSR's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading after the company reported disappointing earnings for the first quarter. So far today, CSR is trading 6.3 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 1.1 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
CSR's stock took a dive in the morning. It continued to work lower through the afternoon unable to stage a rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the key trade today was a big block of 38,400 shares that crossed the tape in the morning at $7.18. That was down sharply from the prior trade at $7.53.
The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure of the earnings news.
CSR reported net for the first quarter was 5 cents a share, up from 4 cents a year ago. The Street was expecting net of 8 cents a share. The lowest estimate was at 3 cents a share.
The company’s customers include governmental customs agencies, courts, public security bureaus, and prisons; non-profit organizations, including schools, museums, sports arenas, and libraries and commercial firms.
Analysts are forecasting a 22% decline in the company's earnings for the second quarter. Overall, though, net for the year is expected to rise 8%.
CSR's chart shows the stock trying to hold key support at 7. Today, the stock breaks down with heavy volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is rolling over indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is calling for CSR to decline to 5 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 7.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
