Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Thursday, April 27, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 24, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - April 27, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 21
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts Thursday as favorable earnings continue to drive many stocks out of their bases. Bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - All major averages remain bullish in all time frames.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVMI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NVMI, based in Israel, produces metrology solutions for the semiconductor industry. Annual revenues: $164 million. NVMI's stock pushes higher Thursday and breaks out from a five-week, flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. NVMI came public back in 2000.
TTD highlighted NVMI as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
So far today, NVMI is trading 232,176 shares, double its average daily volume of 109,000 shares.
NVMI's stock rose steadily during the day after breaking out in the morning. (see 10-minute chart).
The stock gave a little ground near the close.
Tape Action
NVMI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $19.08 in the prior session to as high as $20.40 on Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,598 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $19.25.
That was up from the prior block at $19.12 on 5,000 shares late on Wednesday.
Business
NVMI sells in-line Optical and x-ray stand-alone metrology systems, as well as integrated optical metrology systems, which are attached directly to wafer fabrication process equipment.
Its metrology systems measure various film thickness and composition properties, as well as critical-dimension variables during the semiconductor wafer fabrication process.
Its product portfolio includes a set of in-situ, integrated and stand-alone metrology platforms suited for dimensional, films and material metrology measurements for process control.
Charts
NVMI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 82% versus a 16% gain for the stock market.
Insider activity was not available.
NVMI's long-term chart shows the stock falling to 34 cents a share in early 2009 due to the bear market.
The stock then turned and rallied strongly to $11.79 by early 2011. It then formed a long-term base and broke out in 2014 and raced to its current peak.
NVMI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $14 in January to a peak near $19 by late March.
The stock formed a base and Thursday breaks out with a nice widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
The stock has been trending nicely higher above its rising 50-day moving average line.
NVMI's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 17% increase in NVMI's earnings to $1.17 a share from $1 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 17. TTD sees that as reasonable.
The near term bullish key to the stock is an expected big increase in quarterly earnings growth.
Analysts expect net for the first quarter to soar 171% to 38 cents a share from 14 cents a year ago.
The company has topped the Street consensus estimate the past nine quarters. That is impressive.
Net for the second quarter is expected to leap 136% to 33 cents a share from 14 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NVMI for a move to $25 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $18.
TTD rates NVMI a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish. - NVMI is currently riding some big breakout gains. The stock is in a big up trend and has not topped out yet.
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish. - NVMI has moved higher 10 out of the past 11 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. - NVMI has risen 1.2% in April over the past five years. It has soared 6.3% in May.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
44% |
1/5/2017 | 13.97 | 20.20 | Still in play |
59% |
12/2/2016 | 12.71 | 20.20 | Still in play |
5% |
5/5/2016 | 11.14 | 11.77 | 5/25/2016 |
5% | 5/22/2015 | 12.11 | 12.81 | 6/24/2015 |
24% | 12/23/2013 | 9.36 | 11.67 | 3/6/2914 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. - (NVMI) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CARB - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHE - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WST - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XLNX - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 14
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdowns Thursday. Many stocks breaking down due to disappointing earnings.
AVT, based in Phoenix, distributes electronic components such as network products and software. Annual revenues: $25.9 billion. AVT's stock falls sharply Thursday. The drop was triggered by a forecast of disappointing earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in June.
TTD highlighted AVT as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
So far today, AVT is trading 3.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 1.1 million shares.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
AVT forecast net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in June would be 72 to 82 cents a share from operations.
That is well below Street consensus estimates of 95 cents a share.
Tape Action
AVT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $44.58 in the prior session to as low as $40.86.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 21,100 shares crossed the tape at $41.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $44.58 on 61,302 shares.
Then near the close Thursday, a block of 111,016 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $40.86.
That was down from the prior block at $40.91 on 23,400 shares.
Business
AVT sells enterprise computer, networking and storage products and software, and embedded subsystems.
The Company operates through its electronics marketing unit which also sells semiconductors; interconnect, passive and electromechanical devices and embedded products.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in June analysts have been forecasting a 21% decline in net to $3.32 a share from $4.22 a year ago.
However, that forecast could come down if the fiscal fourth quarter net is as weak as the company says.
Charts:
AVT's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume.
AVT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 6% versus a gain of 14% for the stock market.
Insiders have been getting a lot of stock options (green bars on chart). They have done no recent buying.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AVT for a decline to $34 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $43.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. Stock rose just 4 times out of the past 13 earnings reports where there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity -- Bearish. Best declining month is April, down an average of 7.8% the past five years. AVT rose an average of 2.3% in May.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AVT - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)