Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 23, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - April 27, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts Friday with some good looking plays.
Stock market - Mixed. Dow daily and weekly bearish. Stock market remains in a trading range. Bulls be conservative and selective.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Neutral |
Nasdaq - Neutral |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SPSC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
SPSC, based in Minneapolis, provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions. Annual revenues: $221 million. SPSC's stock moves sharply higher and breaks out from an eight-week flat base.
SPSC is trading 378,240 shares, triple its average daily volume of 119,000 shares.
TTD highlighted SPSC as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The company came in with first quarter net of 39 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate of 31 cents a share.
SPSC gapped higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
The stock hit an intraday high of $70.95.
The stock then pulled back, rallied modestly and then trended sideways around $68.
There was strong volume in the final hour.
Tape Action
SPSC's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks surging from $65.21 in the prior session to as high as $70.95 on 8,737 shares (duplicated) Friday morning.
Then near the close a block of 12,531 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $68.74.
That was up from the prior block at $68.67 on 7,193 shares.
Business
SPSC's provides network-proven fulfillment, sourcing and item assortment management solutions, along with retail performance analytics.
The company provides its solutions through the SPS Commerce platform, a cloud-based product suite that manages can use to monitor business.
It can handle information on suppliers, retailers, distributors and logistics.
Charts
SPSC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 22% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent light buyers around $25 in April. They were sellers at $53 to $67 in recent months.
SPSC's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2010 at $13.50. The stock trended sharply higher reaching an all-time high of $79.98 in 2013.
However, the stock fell back to $43 in 2014 and then went into a long-term basing pattern. The stock has been trading in a range between $78 and 40 the past few years. It is now moving toward its long-term upside resistance.
SPSC's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $45 back in November to a peak near $65 by March.
The stock put down a flat base. It broke out in mid-April but then stalled.
Friday, It gaps higher to clear all near-term upside resistance.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 40% surge in profits to $1.34 a share from the 96 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 50. That is high given the earnings growth rate.
Going out to 2019, the Street predicts a 22% increase in net to $1.63 a share from the anticipated $1.34 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is projected to climb 39% to 32 cents a share from the 23 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 33 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The company beat the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 8 cents a share, 4 cents 3 cents and 4 cents.
Looking out to the third quarter, analysts predict a 52% surge in net to 35 cents a share from the 23 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SPSC for a move to $83 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $64.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - SPSC has tended to be erratic with its gains from breakouts. The stock should be watched closely.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish - SPSC rose 5 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. SPSC rose an average of 5.4% in May and 8.3% in June the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
6% |
6/19/2017 |
60.24 |
64.01 |
6/28/2017 |
62% |
4/22/2016 |
45.58 |
74.12 |
9/28/2016 |
3% |
7/14/2015 |
70.10 |
72.32 |
7/23/2015 |
41% |
6/28/2012 |
28.54 |
40.40 |
10/4/2012 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating SPS Communications Inc. (SPSC) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ENVA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EHC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TJX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 15
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts as many stocks get knocked down on disappointing earnings. Bears be venturesome.
TTD's short from Thursday was Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc. (SPB) at 75.01. Friday, SPB fell 3.98 to $71.03 and is working well for bears.
DRQ, based in Houston, makes engineered drilling and production equipment for the oil industry. Annual revenues: $455 million. DRQ's stock falls sharply Friday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
The decline was due to DRQ reporting a loss 16 cents a share for the first quarter.
The Street was looking for a profit of one cent a share.
The lowest estimate on the Street was at a loss of 3 cents a share from 4 analysts. So, the results were a big disappointment.
Volume swelled to 1.7 million shares, almost triple its average daily volume of 663,000 shares.
DRQ gapped lower in the morning and undercut key support. The stock fell to an intraday low of $38.40.
The stock then bounced up and trended sideways the rest of the day near $41.
Tape Action
DRQ's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $44.50 in the prior session to as low as $40.25 Friday.
A key bearish trade came near the close on Thursday when a block of 31,018 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $44.30.
That was down from the prior block at $44.50 on 8,094 shares
Business
DRQ operates in the U.S., Europe, Asia and Africa.. Its equipment is suited for use in deepwater and harsh environments.
Its principal products are subsea and surface wellheads, subsea and surface production trees, subsea control systems and manifolds, mudline hanger systems and associated pipes.
The company has facilities in its headquarters and Macae, Brazil.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 77% drop in net to 6 cents a share from the 26 cents a share in 2017.
Net for the second quarter is expected to fall 44% to 5 cents a share from 9 cents the year before.
Charts:
DRQ's daily chart shows the stock shows the stock peaking near $56 earlier this year and then falling back to around $45 where it trended sideways. Friday, the stock gaps below support with heavy volume. That is very bearish.
DRQ's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 18% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DRQ for a decline to $34 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $43.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. DRQ rose just once after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Extremely Bearish. DRQ fell an average of 6.1% in May the past several years, but rose 0.1% in June.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DRQ - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)