By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and extremely selective. Nasdaq market rallies back from a big loss on Monday. Bulls be conservative.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SHPG - ABOVE AVERAGE
SHPG, based in Dublin, is a biotech firm developing products to treat rare diseases. Annual revenues: $4.9 billion. SHPG's stock pushes higher today to just edge of its 10-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high, which is bullish. So far today, SHPG is trading a heavy 2.5 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 642,000 shares.
The stock pushed higher on speculation that Allergan Inc. would make a merger big. Allergan, a maker of Botox, is being sought as a takeover by Valean Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
SHPG's stock rose slightly in the morning and then trended sideways into the afternoon.
About half way into the afternoon, SHPG's stock surged higher clearing its breakpoint. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock backed off a bit, but came on again in volatile after-hours trading.
A key bullish trade coming late in the day was a block of 54,694 shares which crossed at $172.33.
That was up from the prior block trade at $165.76 shares on 135,500 shares.
Then later in the after-hours, a bullish block of 59,100 shares crossed at $172.33.
SHPG is a specialty biotech company developing and marketing specialty medicines that address significant unmet patient needs.
The company unified its business during 2013 by integrating the operations of the Specialty Pharmaceuticals (SP), Human Genetic Therapies (HGT) and Regenerative Medicine (RM) business units into a simplified One Shire organization.
The company has four commercial units that focus exclusively on the commercial execution of its In-Line products in the following specialist therapeutic areas: Rare Diseases, Neuroscience, Gastrointestinal and Internal Medicine.
SHPG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 82% versus an 18% gain for the S&P 500 index.
SHPG's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 20 back in 2003 to a peak of 81 in 2007, the peak in the prior bull market.
The stock then fell back to 31 in 2009 due to the following bear market. Since then, the stock has in a solid up trend that included a consolidation period around 80 to 100. The push to a new high on Monday is bullish
SHPG's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 113 back in October to a peak near 172 by early March.
The stock then pulled back and formed its cup-and-handle base. The Structure of the base is not ideal, but the volume patterns in the late stage of the basing work is encouraging.
SHPG's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish. It supports the strong move in the price of the stock recently.
The accumulation - distribution line follows the pattern of the price of the stock.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 28% jump in net to $9.59 a share from $7.51 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 18. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2015, analysts are currently forecasting an 11% gain in net to $10.59 from the anticipated $9.59 this year.
Earnings for the upcoming first two quarters will be very strong.
Net for the first quarter should leap 36% to $2.22 a share from $1.63 a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $2.28 a share. TTD sees excellent chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past four quarters, SHPG has topped the consensus estimate. (see table).
Looking ahead to the second quarter, earnings should jump 33% to $2.38 a share from $1.79 in the prior year.
Strategy Opinion: So SHPG is a fundamental earnings breakout play with the wild card of a merger possible.
TTD is targeting SHPG for a push to 200 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 165.
TTD rates SHPG a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 4-star rated Fidelity Select Healthcare Portfolio with a 0.33% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest fund buyer recently was the 3-star rated Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund which purchased 81,096 shares.
SHPG has 199 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 16% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Not Available. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, down from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
Shire Plc - (SHPG)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NRF - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DDS - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRESY - BELOW AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Short list shows several interesting plays. Nasdaq market falls sharply in the morning, but rallies to erase loss. Bears remain conservative. Market volatility continues.
HAE, based in Braintree, Ma., provides blood management solutions. Annual revenues: $947 million. HAE's stock gaps lower today on big volume and cuts below key technical support. The company came in with lower quarterly earnings. So far today, HAE is trading a heavy 2.1 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 499,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted HAE as a short at our midsession video show on the Web monday.
The company reported earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31 declined to 19 cents a share from 24 cents a year ago.
HAE also said earnings for the fiscal year ending in March of 2015 would be $1.85 to $1.95 a share.
That is down from the Street's projection of $2.24 a share.
The stock gapped lower in the morning cutting below its key technical support line.
HAE hit an intraday low of 30. The stock then stabilized and trended sideways the rest of the session.
The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $33.54 to as low as $30.20 in the morning.
HAE serves three markets: manufacturers of plasma derived pharmaceuticals, blood collectors, and hospitals. Its product categories include: Plasma, Blood Center, Hospital, and Software Solutions. Plasma includes plasma collection devices and consumables.
Blood Center includes blood collection and processing devices and consumables.
Hospital includes surgical blood salvage and blood demand diagnostic devices and consumables.
Software Solutions includes information technology platforms and consulting services provided to all three markets.
HAE's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 43 in January. The stock tried to make a bottom near 32. However, today, it cuts across key support with expanding volume.
HAE"s TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting HAE for a decline to 25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy an be placed near 33.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAE - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)