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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - April 29, 2009


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Breakout list expands modestly. Bulls remain selective. Stock market acting strong that expected and is grudgingly giving ground. That is bullish.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Crucell N.V. (CRXL) - 21.90,  up 1.14 - Breakpoint 21.50

Swine Flu Play, Net to Soar 230% This Year,  TTD Targets 27

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRXL  -  ABOVE AVERAGE

    CRXL, based in Leiden, Netherlands, is a drug firm developing and marketing products to combat infectious diseases such as influenza, tuberculosis, and rabies. Annual revenues: $290 million. CRXL's stock moves sharply higher today and breaks out from its base as concern about the swine flu continues.  So far today, CRXL is trading 513,410 shares, double its normal daily volume of 245,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted CRXL as a stock to accumulate recently. The breakout today is impressive in that volume is expanding nicely.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows good buying interest as the price for the big blocks increased from $20.45 to $21.97.

The stock kicked into gear late in the morning. After its run, the stock coasted the rest of the day holding the bulk of its morning gain.  

  Three sessions ago, when the swine flu new hit, CRXL trading a hefty 2.1 million shares, 18 times its normal daily volume, and move higher.  

 The firm employs its portfolio of proprietary technology platforms, such as its PER.C6 program, to develop drugs of its own and garner licensing payments from other drug firms.  In addition to candidates in clinical development, Crucell already has pediatric, travel, and respiratory vaccines on the market.

  TTD's performance chart shows CRXL's stock appreciating 85% in the just the past six months. It has easily outperformed the S&P 500 which is down 10%.

    TTD's long-term chart shows CRXL's stock with a powerful move climbing from 2 back in 2003 to a peak of 30 by October of 2005. The stock eventually worked lower to 10 last year during the bear market. However, it is now on the move higher.

  TTD's daily chart shows CRXL punching through resistance at 21.50 today. The stock is now in position to make a 52-week high if it can get above 24.08. If it does that the stock could draw in more buying.

 CRXL had a spike move higher in January. Afterwards it went into a basing pattern that ha lasted five months. So, CRXL has put in its time.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has dipped a bit, but has turned back up.

  This year, analysts project that CRXL's earnings will soar 230% to 73 cents a share from 22 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 27, which is reasonable given the strong earnings outlook.

  Next year, the Street sees earnings climbing 32% to 96 cents a share from the expected 73 cents  this year.

  CRXL is doing a great deal of research on the flu using antibody research. There is a chance the firm might do well if its products to treat flu are needed.

  For the upcoming first quarter, the Street expects a breakeven against a loss of 21 cents a share. Some estimates for the quarter, though, are at a profit of 13 cents a share. So, CRXL has the potential to surprise on the upside.

  Going out to the second quarter net is expected to come in at 9 cents a share compared with a loss of 19 cents a share.

  Strategy Opinion: CRXL is not only a "special situation" play on the swine flu, but also a stock that will be showing strong earnings growth. TTD is targeting CRXL for a move to 27. A protective stop can be placed near 19.50. TTD rates CRXL a very good intermediate-term play because of the strong earnings outlook. It is also a stock that could surprise big on the upside.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. Gabelli Small Cap Growth Fund, 4-star rated, is the largest holder with a 0.29% stake. The largest buyer lately was 3-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Small Co. Growth Fund which purchased 117,000 shares. CRXL has 65 million shares outstanding. Funds hold just 650,000 shares.

  Insider Activity: Not available. Three analysts follow the stock and all have a buy, up from just one buy three months ago.   



 Stock Performance Chart for 6 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Crucell N.V.  (CRXL)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly   YES  
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 10 1 3

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

  


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSYS  -  ABOVE AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BMC  -  AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -SLAB  -  BELOW AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SWHC  -  AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies strongly. Bears be very conservative.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Aetna Inc. (AET) - 22.35, down 2.05

Net to be Flat This Year, TTD Sees Slide to 18

  AET, based in Hartford, Con., provides a variety of insurance services. Annual revenues: $31 billion. AET reported earnings today and they met expectations, but the price of the stock fell sharply in heavy trading. The reaction to the news was very bearish. So far today, AET is trading 19.3 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 5.7 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  AET's stock gapped lower at the opening and hit bottom in mid-morning. It staged a modest rally, but then faded in the late afternoon.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 323,100 shares crossing on a significant down tick to $22 from the prior trade at $22.10. The trade was one of the largest for the day. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.

  AET reported first quarter earnings from operation increased to 96 cents a share from 92 cents a year ago. The Street consensus was at 93 cents. One would have expected the stock to rise. Its decline marks a bearish response.

  AET provides risk-based health insurance and non-risk-based benefits plan management services to 6 million and 11 million customers, respectively. Other products include pharmacy benefits management, dental coverage, and group life and disability insurance.

  This year, analysts predict a 2% decline in net to $3.83 a share from $3.93 a year ago.

  AET's stock chart shows the gap move lower on the big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is rolling over indicating heavy selling pressure.

  Strategy Opinion: AET's breakdown today points the way for a potential drop to 18 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD would treat the stock as bear trading play



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)