Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 30, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Monday - April 30, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts, but some interesting plays. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Bearish. Major averages are bearish daily and weekly. The long-term indicators are still bullish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FCFS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
FCFS, based in Fort Worth, Tex., operates pawn stores in the U.S. and Latin America. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. FCFS's stock drives sharply higher Monday and breaks out from a seven-week flat base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD highlighted FCFS as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
So far today, FCFS is trading a heavy 749,442 shares, double its average daily volume of 354,000 shares.
A few sessions ago, FCFS boosted its earnings outlook for this year.
Monday, FCFS's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line. (see 10-minute chart).
The stock reached an intraday peak in the afternoon at $88.35.
The stock then gave some ground late in the day, but held above its breakpoint line.
Tape Action
FCFS's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $84.30 in the morning to as high as $86.72 Monday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 8,226 shares crossed the tape at $84.90.
That was up from the prior block at $84.45 on 14,056 shares.
Then near the close a massive block of 47,248 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $86.70.
That came on a down tick sequence started with a trade from $86.75 on 100 shares. The tape action would indicate some profit taking.
Business
FirstCash, Inc. was formerly First Cash Financial Services.
The firm operates retail-based pawn stores in the United States and Latin America.
The company's stores make small pawn loans secured by personal property, such as consumer electronics, jewelry, power tools, household appliances, sporting goods and musical instruments.
The U.S. operations in Latin America are in Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. The Company also operates consumer finance stores in Texas and Mexico.
Charts
FCFS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 70% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent sellers at $73 to $80 a share. They were buyers at $73.
FCFS's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $20 back in 2011 to a peak at $64 by 2013.
The stock then went into a long-term pull back to $30 by 205. However, since then FCFS has been driving sharply higher.
FCFS's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $64 back in November to a peak near $84 by March.
The stock put down a small cup-and-handle base and broke out in April.
However, it fell back, but Monday drives higher and clears its breakpoint zone.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 21% increase in net to $3.32 a share from the $2.74 the prior year.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 26.
Looking out to 2019, earnings are projected to rise a more modest 15% to $3.82 a share from the anticipated $3.32 expected this year.
Quarterly profit growth will be solid.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 25% to 65 cents a share from the 52 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 66 cents a share.
Going out to the third quarter net is expected to climb 28% to 78 cents a share from the 61 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FCFS for a move to $105 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $82.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish FCFS has tended to score solid gains off its recent breakouts. it is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish - FCFS rose 7 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Very Bullish - FCFS rose an average of 0.9% in May and 8.4% in June the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
14% |
3/6/2018 |
75.47 |
86.70 |
Still in play |
26% |
1/3/2018 |
68.55 |
86.70 |
Still in play |
23% |
4/20/2017 |
48.67 |
60.35 |
8/16/2017 |
19% |
2/19/2016 |
40 |
47.63 |
4/26/2016 |
16% |
11/21/2012 |
47.51 |
55.49 |
3/25/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating First Cash Inc. . (FCFS) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPCC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WUBA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MMSI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DCT - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Bear list selective today. Stock market falls sharply and remains in an overall trading range.
W, based in Boston, offers browsing, merchandising and product discovery for several products from various suppliers. Annual revenues: $4.7 billion. W falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, W is trading 3.7 million shares, double its average daily volume of 1.5 million shares.
The stock was downgraded by Wedbush.
W's stock gapped lower in the morning and undercut key technical support.
The stock touched a low of $60.82 near the opening. The stock bounced up slightly.
Then it drifted lower to a low for the day of $60.53 It then lifted a bit in the afternoon.
Tape Action
A bearish block of W traded late on Friday when a block of 60,769 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $66.61.
That was down from the prior block at 67.45 on 60,420 shares.
Then near the close Monday a block of 72,307 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $62.30.
That was down from the prior block at $62.40 on 11,100 shares.
Business
W gains revenues earned through product sales via its five sites in the U.S. and through sites operated by third parties.
The company has an online selection of furniture, decor, decorative accents, housewares, seasonal decor and other home goods.
W is an online destination for home items. Birch Lane offers a collection of furnishings and home decor. Its sites feature certain products under its house brands, such as Three Posts and Mercury Row.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $2.38 a share compared with a loss of $1.97 the year before
Going out to 2019, the Street predicts a loss of $1.66 a share compared with the anticipated loss of $2.38 this year.
Charts:
W''s daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with heavy volume. The stock has been trending lower from around $100 back in February.
W''s 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 36% versus a gain of 15% for the stock market. However, the stock's performance has been deteriorating the past three months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting W for a decline to $54 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 64.50.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish. W rose just 3 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Extremely Bullish. W rose an average of 13.3% in May and 14.3% in June the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - W - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)