Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - April 30,  2019

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Tuesday - April 30, 2019

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  8

Quality of Breakouts -  Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Large list of breakouts with mostly average plays.

Stock market  -  Market averages remain bullish in all time sectors.

Comment -  TTD sees the stock market still volatile as earnings continue to pour in.

See Latest Earnings Reports -  A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Some key earnings beats for Tuesday - GLDD, FORR, SHOP, TOO, MLM and Zen.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks near breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.  They can also be bought soon after a follow through move, sometimes on an intraday pullback. )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

YUM China Holdings Inc. (YUMC) - 47.54, up 2.79 - Breakpoint 46.27

Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 55 

  YUMC, based in China, operates restaurants in China such as Pizza Hut and Taco Bell. Annual revenues: $8.4 billion. YUMC's stock moves higher Tuesday and breaks out from its five-week flat base.

  The move puts the stock close to making a new all-time high. It is at $47.54. Its all-time high is $48.75.

  TTD sees more on the upside.

 So far today, YUMC is trading a heavy 9.7 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 2.3 million shares.

  YUMC's stock fell in the morning to an intraday low of $45.10.

  The stock then turned and rallied steadily through the day reaching an intraday peak at $47.92.

   Tape Action

  YUMC's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $44.75 in the prior session to as high as $47.54.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 80,873 shares crossed the tape at $45.18

  That was up from the prior block at $44.75 on 33,633 shares late on Monday.     

  Near the close a massive block of 360,422 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $47.54.

  That was up from the prior block at 47.22 on 83,900 shares.

   Business

  YUMC's restaurants include: KFC, Pizza Hut Casual Dining,  East Dawning, Little Sheep and Taco Bell.

 YUMC has around 7,500 restaurants in China.

 The company's restaurants in each of its concept offer consumers the ability to dine in and/or carry out food.

YUMC has over 360 Pizza Hut Home Service units in 50 cities in China.

    Charts

  YUMC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 10% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers at $19 to $40 a share using stock options.

  They were recent sellers at $42 to $45.

  YUMC's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2016 at $24.51.

  The stock ran up to a peak at $48.75 by January of 2018. However, it fell back to $30. It has since rebounded back close to its all-time peak.   

  YUMC's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $32 back in December to a peak at $46 by April.

  It put down a small, flat base.

  The breakout is impressive coming with expanding volume and a widening of the daily price spread.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 7% increase in net to $1.64 a share from the $1.53 the year before.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28. That is high given the earnings growth rate.

  Looking out to 2020, the Street is calling for an 11% rise in net to $1.82 a share from the anticipated $1.64 this year.

  Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to be up a modest 3% to 37 cents a share from the 36 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate is at 39 cents a share.

   For the third quarter, profits should rise 10% to 56 cents a share from the 51 cents the year before.

  TTD sees good chances for some earnings beats. YUMC topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 6 cents a share, 5 cents, 7 cents and 3 cents.

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting YUMC for a move to $55 off this breakout.

A protective stop can be placed near $44/

Intermediate-Term Rating:  Average.

Suitability:   Average Bulls.

                                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish -  YUMC scored some good gains off some of its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral - YUMC rose 3 times after the past 6 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. -  YUMC averaged a gain of 2.8% in May and a gain of 0.3% in June the past several years. 

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

 Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  -  Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  9

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Large list of breakdown stocks. Bears can be venturesome.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH)  - 54.01

 Profits Disappoint, TTD Sees Drop to 47

  TXRH, based in Louisville, Ky., operates casual dining restaurants. Annual revenues: $2.5 billion. TXRH's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the firm reported disappointing earnings.

  So far today, TXRH is trading a heavy 5.2 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 918,000 shares.

  TTD sees more on the downside.

  TXRH reported net for the first quarter of 70 cents a share. That was below the 81 cents projected by the Street. The company blamed high costs.

  TXRH's stock fell sharply in the morning undercutting key technical support.

  The stock touched an intraday low of $53.50 in the morning. It then lifted to around $54 and trended sideways the rest of the day.

  Tape Action

  TXRH's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $61.09 in the prior session to as low as $54.01 near the close Tuesday.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 37,729 shares crossed the tape at $55.01.

  That was down sharply from  the prior block trade at $61.09 on 107,230 shares.

  Then near the close a massive block of 206,784 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $54.01.

  That was down from the prior block at $54.53 on 27,000 shares.

  Business

  TXRH provides a menu ribs, fish, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates and an assortment of hamburgers, salads and sandwiches.

The company offers an assortment of wings, sandwiches, pizzas and burgers, including its bacon grind patty.

 TXRH has 23 franchisees that operated 86 Texas Roadhouse restaurants in 23 states and six foreign countries.

   Earnings:

  This year, analysts have been forecasting a 13% increase in net to $2.48 a share from the $2.20 the year before. That forecast could come down.

  For the upcoming second quarter, the Street looks for an 11% rise in net to 69 cents a share from the 62 cents the year before.

Charts:  

  TXRH's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower with big volume. The stock had been a leader, but now appears to be breaking down or going into a long-term consolidation.

   TXRH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 15% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TXRH for a decline to $47 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $56.

Suitability:   Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bearish.  -  TXRH rose 2 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish -  TXRH averaged a gain of 3.8% in May and a gain of 5.1% in June the past several years.

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2019

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)