Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesday, May 2, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 1, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - May 2, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Quality of Breakouts - Average. Small group of breakouts and selective.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Earnings continue to push stock prices. Also, projections having big impact. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market All major averages and time frames remain bullish. However, the Dow still lags.
Stock Market Momentum
(Based on 14 unit moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MLM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
MLM, based in Raleigh, N.C., produces construction products such as cement, crushed stone and gravel. Annual revenues: $3.8 billion. MLM breaks out Tuesday from a seven-month flat base. The move puts MLM in positron to soon make a new all-time high. That would be bullish.
MLM's drive higher was triggered by strong quarterly earnings that topped Street estimates.
The stock was highlighted as a breakout by TTD at our midsession video show.
So far today, MLM is trading 1.8 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 601,000 shares.
MLM reported net for the first quarter of 67 cents a share.
That topped the Street consensus estimate of 47 cents a share.
MLM's stock surged in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line with strong volume.
The stock hit an intraday high of $243.39 in the morning.
MLM then backed off slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
MLM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $222.87 in the prior session to as high as $240.67 in the morning.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 14,978 shares crossed the tape at $233.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $222.87 on 9,104 shares.
The stock finished strong.
At the NYSE close a block of 30,996 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $239.85.
That was up from the prior block trade at $238.81 on 7,200 shares.
Business
MLM produces and sells crushed stone, sand, and gravel used for construction of infrastructure, nonresidential, and residential projects.
The materials are also used for railroad ballast and in agricultural, utility and environmental applications.
MLM's also produces magnesia-based chemical products used in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications and dolomitic lime sold to customers in the steel industry.
Its cement business produces Portland and specialty cements.
Charts
MLM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 35% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
MLM did especially well in the fourth quarter of last year.
Insiders have been recent buyers using stock options at $151 to $172 a share.
They were sellers at $212 to $229 a share.
MLM's long-term chart shows the stock reaching a bull market peak of $170.25 in 2007.
The stock then fell back to $58.62 in 2008 due to the bear market.
The stock then formed a long term base by trending sideways from 2009 to 2013. It broke out to the upside in 2014 at around $100.
Since then it has been in an uptrend having more than doubled.
MLM's daily chart shows the sock peaking around $240 in January and then pulling back.
It formed a base and Tuesday breaks out with strong volume off its good earnings.
The move comes with a gap in price and strong volume.
MLM's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% increase in net to $8.23 a share from $6.65 the year before.
That estimate could be boosted after the good first quarter.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 29. That is reasonable.
Going out to 2018, analysts predict a 29% jump in net to $10.60 a share from the anticipated $8.23 this year.
Net for the second quarter should jump 28% to $2.44 a share from $1.90 the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MLM for a move to $290 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near $220.
TTD rates MLM a good intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Average. - MLM has scored some good gains off its breakout in two of the last four tries. The stock is not trying to emerge from a long-term base.
Probability - Earnings Response - Above Average. MLM has risen 8 out the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Well Above Average - MLM has averaged a gain of 6.6% in May the past five years. It is one of its best months.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
3% |
1/24/2017 | 233.91 | 241.62 | 1/26/2017 |
19% |
11/8/2016 | 202.01 | 241.62 | 1/26/2017 |
5% |
7/6/2016 | 194.31 | 205.70 | 7/28/2016 |
28% | 3/31/2016 | 159.51 | 205.70 | 7/28/2016 |
9% | 7/20/2015 | 160.23 | 175.69 | 8/18/2015 |
6% | 4/30/2015 | 146.04 | 154.67 | 5/14/2015 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Martin Marietta Materials Inc. - (MLM) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SUM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CGNX - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CIGI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSM - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 10
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Several interesting plays for bears as earnings having an impact on some breakdown stocks.
IPHS, based in Cranbury, N.J., produces special ingredients for food and beverages. Annual revenues: $$72 million. IPHS's stock falls sharply Tuesday after the company's revenues disappointed, according to some analysts. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted IPHS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, IPHS is trading a heavy 439,771 shares, about triple its average daily volume of 161,000 shares.
The company reported first quarter net of 59 cents a share, topping the Street estimate of 52 cents a share.
However, the company forecast a 5% decline in second quarter revenues. In the first quarter, revenues were down 13%.
IPHS's stock fells sharply at the opening and touched its intraday low of $42.31.
The stock then lifted to around $44 and trended mostly sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
IPHS's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $48.58 in the morning to as low as $44.03 by the early afternoon.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 1,533 shares crossed the tape at $44.03.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $48.58 on 15,900 shares near the opening.
Business
IPHS produces nutritional specialty ingredients for food, beverage, dietary supplements, pharmaceutical, oral care and industrial end markets.
The company also provides bioactive mineral and nutritional ingredients.
The company has four principal product lines: Specialty ingredients, Food and Technical Grade Purified Phosphoric Acid, Technical Grade Sodium Tripolyphosphate & Detergent Grade PPA, and GTSP & Other.
IPHS has its manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 2% decline in net to $2.50 a share from $2.55 a year ago.
Charts:
IPHS's daily chart shows the stock breaking down from $52 in April. The stock tried to hold, but is now rolling over again and picking up heavy volume.
IPHS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 19% versus 15% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IPHS for a decline to $37 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $46.10.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Average. Stock rose 6 out of the past 13 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Activity -- Bearish. IPHS has declined an average of 2% in May. It is one of its weakest months.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPHS - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)