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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 2 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list modest as stock market is mixed with blue chips edging slightly higher. Bulls be selective and watchful of all positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXBD - BELOW AVERAGE |
EXBD, based in Arlington, Va., provides corporate consulting. Annual revenues: $439 million. EXBD's stock breaks out today from a two-month flat base with a powerful move higher on a big expansion in volume. The fundamental trigger for the move was the company boosting its revenue and profit forecast for the year. So far today, EXBD is trading 1 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 157,000 shares. 
EXBD's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning. The push sent the stock well above its breakpoint line.
It then trended sideways the rest of the day holding well above the breakpoint.
EXBD reported net for the first quarter declined to 33 cents a share from 34 cents a year ago. The net was slightly below the 34 cents a share consensus estimate.
However, EXBD said for the year it now expects net to climb to $1.50 to $1.65 a share. That is up slightly from a prior forecast of $1.45 to $1.65 a share. The company said revenues for the year would now be between $480 to $500 a year. That is up from a prior forecast of $475 to $495 million.
The market took the annual forecast very bullishly. 
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks jumping from $39.85 last Friday to a as high as $44.30 today. A key bullish trade came when 25,000 shares crossed the tape in the morning at $44.19. That was up from the prior block trade at $40.26.
EXBD provides best practices research and analysis focusing on corporate strategy, operations and general management issues.
Best practices research identifies and analyzes specific management initiatives, processes and strategies that have been determined to produce the best results in solving common business problems.
The company provides research and
analysis on an annual subscription basis to some of the world's largest and most
prestigious corporations.
EXBD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus a 16% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock, although a laggard long-term, has done well in recent months.
The stock's long-term chart shows the issue coming public in 1999 round 17. The stock soared to a high of 112 in 2006. The stock then went into a bear market and retraced back to 17 in 2009 - a round trip. The stock has since worked higher in recent months.
EXBD's daily chart shows a powerful breakout with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is bullish and shows "ease of price movement higher."
The base was well defined bracketed between 36 and 42 roughly. The stock showed a good contraction in volume in the late stages of the base which is bullish too.
EXBD's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up and compliments the bullish action of the price of the stock.
This year, analysts forecast a 17% increase in EXBD's earnings to $1.63 a share from $1.40 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 26.
Looking ahead to 2012, profits are expected to rise 18% to $1.92 a share from the anticipated $1.63 for this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter should rise 21% to 39 cents a share from 32 cents a year ago. So, the company is poised to show a pickup in earnings growth.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting EXBD for a move to 52 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 41, which is tight. TTD rates EXBD an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Buffalo Small Cap Fund with a big 7.5% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund which purchased 742,300 shares. EXBD has 34.5 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been light buyers of the stock using options. Seven analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, up from 2 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Corporate Executive Board Co. - (EXBD) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 10 | 2 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXLS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LLL - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SKM - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HOLX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 10
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown stock list expands as stock market moves broadly lower. TTD's feature short from Monday was MKS Instrument (MKSI) at 26.74. So far today, the stock has declined to 25.80 and is working well for bears. Stock market now starting a pull back.
AGII, based in Pembroke, Na., provides reinsurance products and services. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. AGII's stock falls sharply today after the company reported a large quarterly loss. So far today, AGII is trading 149,790 shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 97,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
The stock's decline was due to the firm reporting a loss of the first quarter of $3.34 a share compared with a profit of 67 cents a share a year ago.
The loss was about what was expected. However, the stock responded in a very bearish way.
The stock moved lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 29.86. In the afternoon, the stock edged a bit higher.
TTD's clip of the tape shows institutional selling pressure even though the stock is thinly traded. A key bearish block traded in the morning when 35,600 shares crossed the tape at $29.99. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $30.99.
The company primarily emphasize commercial and personal property and casualty reinsurance risks. It offers both broker-based and direct-writing distribution capabilities. The company also provides marine and aerospace reinsurance products and services.
This year, analysts forecast a loss of 81 cents a share compared with a profit of $2 a share a year ago.
AGII's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support near 30. The stock was in a down trend from 40 two months ago. So, AGII is resuming its down trend.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AGII for a decline to 24 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32.10.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGII - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
