By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's
Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers
1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.
2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.
3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.
4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance)
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance)
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco firstname.lastname@example.org.For service, email Beverly Owen email@example.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts with some interesting plays. Housing stocks are acting well. Stock market looks like it may be out of gas and will need a rest.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NVR - ABOVE AVERAGE
NVR, based in Reston, Va., builds homes and provides financing. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. NVR's stock breaks out today from a nine-week flat base. The stock's move higher was aided by favorable news in the housing market. So far today, NVR is trading 45,226 shares. its average daily volume is 38,000 shares.
NVR is one of the highest priced stocks trading in the market.
TTD highlighted NVR as a stock to accumulate earlier this months. Also, the stock was featured today at our midsession video show on the Web.
NVR's stock cleared its breakpoint early in the day with a strong push North (see 10-minute chart).
The stock then trended sideways through the midpart of the session. Then late in the day NVR came on again to close near its high for the day.
Obviously, NVR is high priced at over $1,000. However, that should not deter one from taking a position based on its prospects.
NVR's tape action today is strongly bullish.
A look at the recent block trades shows the price for the blocks climbing from $1,044 a few days ago to as high as $1,075 Tuesday.
Today, the price of the blocks has moved up from $1,058 to $1,075.
The largest trade recently was late on Monday when a block of 1,806 shares crossed the tape at $1,046.90, up from the prior block at $1,040.10.
NVR Inc. is a holding company that operates in two business segments; the construction of homes and financial services.
NVR's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings. It has two product lines through two divisions Ryan Homes and NVHomes.
NVR's mortgage banking business generates revenues primarily from origination fees, servicing fees, gains on marketing of loans, title fees, and sales of servicing rights.
NVR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 45% versus a 10% gain for the S&P500 index.
NVR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 42 back in 2000 to a peak of 947 in 2005. The stock then worked lower due in part to the bear market. It finally bottomed at 310 in early 2009.
Since then, NVR has pushed higher as the housing market has recovered. Today's push to a new high could draw in more buying on Wednesday.
NVR's daily chart shows the stock advancing from around 850 back in November to 1050 by January.
The stock set up a flat base above its 50-day moving average line. That shows it is in a solid up trend.
The breakout today clears resistance. The volume is not that robust. So, it will be important to see a follow through with volume picking up.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside. That is bullish showing there is been good underlying buying in the stock.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 51% surge in net to $53.05 a share from $35.12 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 19. TTD sees that as attractive for value players since it is just half the earnings growth rate.
Going out to 2014, analysts project a 39% gain in net to $73.84, up from the anticipated $53.05 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should surge 94% to $7.57 a share from $3.90 a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at $8.80 a share. NVR has topped the quarterly consensus estimate the past three quarters by 2% to 8%. So, there is a good chances for a mild upside earnings surprise. (see table).
Profits for the second quarter should climb 45% to $13.02 from the $8.97 a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 1,300. That is up from our prior projection earlier this month. A protective stop can be placed near 1,040
TTD rates NVR a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 2-star rated iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Fund with a 3.4% stake. It was a recent buyer of 4,977 shares. NVR has 5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 84% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $434 and $515. They were recent sellers at 1,004. Four analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
|TTD's Breakout Profile
NVR Inc. - (NVR)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPA - ABOVE AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SAM - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DEO - AVERAGE|
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MR - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest provides a list of potential breakout stocks from our screen of companies that will show some of the strongest earnings gains. One of the best ways to play these stocks is to study the list and then place a stop buy order to catch the stock on the breakout.
One can take either a full position on the breakout if they are aggressive, or scale-in looking to add to the stake later if they are conservative. TTD's premarket breakout watch list gives you a great opportunity "to be prepared for the next key breakout stock just before it happens." The list will be updated daily and the screen monthly.
Guide: Symbol=Ticker, Name=Corporate name, Entry is the buy price to enter on the breakout, Last=prior close, Change=change from last close to prior, Date=date of price of close etc, Gain in blue is price above breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is price below breakpoint (entry)., % Gain in blue is % over breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is % below breakpoint (entry)
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today, but some interesting plays. Stock market still in up trend, but has lost upside momentum. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Monday was Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) at 9.13. The stock has declined to 8.64 so far today and is working well for bears.
DSW, based in Columbus, Ohio, operates 326 shoe stores. Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. DSW's stock falls sharply today after the company cuts its annual earnings forecast. So far today, DSW is trading a heavy 3.6 million shares, nine times its normal daily volume of 401,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
DSW said it expects earnings for the fiscal year ending in January 2014 to be $3.30 to $3.40 per share.
That is well below the current consensus earnings estimate of $3.87.
The stock reacted bearishly to the negative news. DSW gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $60.26 in the morning. The stock then lifted during the day getting back to $62.90.
DSW's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks tumbling from $68.50 a few days ago to $61.80. The key bearish trade came when a block of 31,377 shares crossed the tape at $61.80. That was down from the prior block at $67.05.
The tape showed an institutional urgency to sell.
DSW is a specialty branded footwear retailer operating DSW stores,
Currently, analysts are forecasting an 11% rise in net for the fiscal first quarter ending April 30.
DSW's daily chart shows a gap drop on big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) was in an up trend. That would show the news came as a surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DSW for a decline to 54 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 64.50.
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DSW - AVERAGE|
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)