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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - May 4, 2009

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Small list of breakouts today. Stocks acting bullish. Many are turning up from bottoms. Stock market continues rally. Bulls be selective.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Featured Stock

Lancaster Colony Inc. (LANC) - 48.70,  up 3.88 - Breakpoint 44.30

Finally Clears Base, Net to Leap 42% in Fiscal 2009,  TTD Targets 57

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LANC  -  ABOVE AVERAGE

    LANC, based in Columbus, O., a diversified firm, makes food products, automotive accessories, glass products, and candles. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. LANC, a conservative stock, finally clears a seven-week flat base today. The stock had a breakout two weeks ago but fell back. Now it reemerges with good power as it hits a new all-time high. So far today, LANC is up about 3 points. Volume is running at 606,660 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 227,000 shares.

  LANC moved higher at the opening and continued to rally into the early afternoon. It then trended sideways holding the bulk of its gain for the day.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 21,100 shares crossing in the morning on a modest up tick to $45.76 from the prior trade at $45.72.

  TTD has highlighted LANC recently. We also featured LANC at our midsession show on the Web today.

    LANC has a low beta of 0.37. The beta of the S&P 500 is 1.00. So, LANC tends to be a slow mover relative to the stock market. That can also be seen by the pattern of the long-term chart. However, the key now is that LANC will be showing strong earnings. So, TTD believes the beta will rise.

 LANC largest division is in the food sector. It produces specialty foods, markets condiments, baked goods, and pasta under brand names such as Girard's, Pfeiffer, and Marzetti.

 The automotive division produces floor mats, truck splash guards, and other parts, which it sells to auto manufacturers and retail stores. Lancaster Colony also produces glassware, cookware, and glass items used in industrial applications.

   The past six years, LANC traded between roughly 30 and 45. Today's breakout to a new all-time high is very bullish. That means there is no overhead resistance  - others who bought at a higher price that may want to sell to breakeven.

   TTD's performance chart shows LANC appreciating 48% the past 12 months. That compares with a 40% drop in the S&P 500 index.

  TTD's daily chart shows LANC rallying from 26 to 42 the past few months.

  The structure of the base is bullish. Today's breakout shows a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That indicates ease of price movement higher.

  LANC's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.

  What makes LANC's stock look attractive is that earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 should surge 42% to $2.33 a share from $1.64 a year ago.

 The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 17. Granted it is a food stock and one would think it as being conservative. Nevertheless the p/e is well below the earnings growth rate. That makes it attractive to value investors.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30 should increase 47% to 55 cents a share from 37 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 57 cents a share.

 The company is benefiting from good sales and a better mix of products. That is helping to improve margins. The company expects its specialty foods unit to do well as commodity costs moderate.   

 Strategy Opinion: LANC's breakout today is impressive. TTD is targeting LANC for a move to 57 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 46, which is tight. TTD rates LANC a good intermediate-term play with low downside risk due to its solid earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Heartland Value Plus Fund with a 1.9% stake. It was a recent buyer of 500,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Champlain Small Company Fund picked up 29,000 shares. LANC has 27 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 4.1 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders did some light buying in recent months. Two analysts follow the stock, none have a buy.

 Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Lancaster Colony Corp.  (LANC)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success   YES
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HSIC  -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TLEO  -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MIL  -  AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LORL  -  BELOW AVERAGE

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market surges higher in the morning. Bears be conservative as market continues to work higher. Today, school stocks, former leaders, break to the downside.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Devry Inc. (DV) - 38.44, down 2.20

Stock Cuts Below Key Support, Group Weak, TTD Sees Drop to 31

  DV, based in Oakbrook Terrarce, Il., is one of the largest for-profit education companies. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. DV's stock, a part of the recently strong school sector, falls sharply today on expanding volume. Today, the school stocks continue lower with several cutting below key technical support. DV's is trading 2 million shares so far today. The stock's average daily volume is 1.4 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  DV's stock moved lower in the morning. it staged a modest rally at mid-morning, but then rolled over and headed South. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 25,000 shares crossing in the morning on a modest down tick to $39.32 from the prior trade at $39.33. The tape showed heavy institutional selling pressure.

  The stock's in the school group fell without any news. TTD sees that as very bearish.

  DV offers undergraduate and graduate programs in business and technology fields (77% of revenue). Under its health-care segment, Ross University offers medical and veterinarian programs, and Chamberlain College offers nursing degrees.

 DV's professional segment offers review courses through its Becker CPA review and Stalla CFA review programs.

  This fiscal year ending June 30, analysts predict DV's net will increase 30% to $2.31 a share from $1.78 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in June should be up 41%. The earnings outlook is very good. The weakness in the stock, while technical, could portend some negative news.

  DV's chart shows the stock in a down trend from 65 to around 40. The stock tried to form a bottom. However, it cuts below key support and expanding volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart is very bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is very bearish and trending lower.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DV for a decline to 31. A protective stop buy can be placed near 40.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)