Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Monday, May 4, 2015 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 4, 2015 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and selective. Stock market remains in a trading range with earnings still to be reported.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMCX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
AMCX, based in New York, operates cable television brands and holds an interest in movie theatres. Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. AMCX's stock breaks out today from a six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
The push higher was triggered by better than expected earnings for the quarter. TTD highlighted the stock as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web.
So far today, AMCX is trading a heavy 2 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 518,000 shares.
AMCX's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and then coming back down.
The stock then stabilized and worked gradually higher the rest of the day.
AMCX reported earnings for the first quarter jumped to $1.66 a share from $1.44 a year ago.
The $1.66 matched the highest estimate on the Street.
The stock responded well to the earnings. The company said the gains represent strong advertising revenues.
AMCX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $76.30 in the prior session to as high as $80.15 near the close Monday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 16,409 shares crossed the tape at $80.
That was up from the prior block trade at $76.30 on 32,122 shares.
Then later in the day a massive block of 100,000 shares crossed at $78.90.
That was up from the prior block at $78.50 - which in turn came on an up tick in the block trade sequence.
AMCX operates as a theatrical exhibition company worldwide.
It owned, operated, or held interests in 348 theatres with a total of 4,960 screens primarily in North America.
The company was founded in 1920. AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of Dalian Wanda Group Co.
AMCX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 20% versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500 index.
There was some recent heavy insider selling (see red bars on chart)
AMCX's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2011 and trading at $40. The stock worked its way to a peak of $78 by early 2014.
The stock then backed off to as low as $52. It has since come on strong again.
AMCX's daily chart shows the stock trending higher from 60 back in December to around 77 by April.
Today's breakout looks sold as volume expands and the daily trading spread (range from high to low) expands.
That shows strong buying interest.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend that compliments the price action.
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 19% increase in AMCX's earnings to $4.66 a share from$3.91 a year ago.
That estimate should move higher. Currently, AMCX has a price-earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking out to 2016, the Street is forecasting a 12% gain in net to $5.20 a share from the currently anticipated $4.66 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to rise a modest 11% to $1 a share from 90 cents a year ago.
One can see that AMCX has topped the Street estimate the past four quarters on TTD's table.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMCX for a move to 94 off this breakout.
A protective stop can be placed near 76.
TTD rates AMCX a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder and recent buyer was the 4-star rated ClearBridge Aggressive Growth Fund with a 5.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 322,322 shares.
Also, the 4-star rated RI CBF AllianceBern Discovery Growth RA Fund was a recent buyer of 67,755 shares. It has a 0.59% stake.
AMCX has 60.6 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers recently using stock options at $13. They sold at $73.
Currently, 16 analysts follow the stock, 8 have a buy, down from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating AMC Networks Inc. - (AMCX) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LYV - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HNP - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HME - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OZM - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks. Bear be selective. Stock market still in trading range.
DCI, based in Minneapolis, makes air cleaners and other industrial related products. Annual revenues: $2.5 billion. DCI's stock falls sharply Monday after the company cut its earnings outlook for fiscal 2015. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, DCI is trading a heavy 2 million shares, four times its average daily volume.
The stock fell sharply in the morning, staged a modest lift, but then rolled over and declined further.
It hit an intraday low of 35.68 in the afternoon.
DCI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $37.92 a few sessions ago to as low as $35.86 Monday.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 78,865 shares crossed the tape at $37.37.
That was down from the prior block trade at $37.90 on 15,000 shares.
DCI said earnings this fiscal year ending in July should come in at $1.51 to $1.61 a share. That is down from a prior forecast of $1.65 to $1.85 earlier in the year.
The company blamed a slowdown in its engine aftermarket distribution channels, further weakening in industrial conditions in China and the impact of the strong dollar.
DCI makes air cleaners, liquid filters and exhaust products and accessories for heavy duty mobile equipment.
It also produces in-plant air cleaning systems; air intake systems and exhaust products for industrial gas turbines.
DCI's daily chart shows the stock trending sideways for several months and then the breakdown Monday with big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (top of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DCI for a decline to 30 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 38.50.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DCI - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)