By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance
Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.
Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."
Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets
Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns
Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco email@example.com.For service, email Beverly Owen firstname.lastname@example.org. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Again, very few breakouts today. Stock market continues lower. The action today now threatens a possible retracement of the big gains made since February. Bulls remain selective and watchful of all protective stops.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SVR - AVERAGE
SVR, based in Tampa, Fla., provides services for wireless voice and data services for telecom firms. Annual revenues: $482 million. SVR's stock breaks out from a six-week flat base. The move was triggered by strong earnings. So far today, SVR is trading 1.6 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 580 million shares.
SVR's breakout was highlighted by TTD at our midsession show on the Web today.
The company came in with a big 95% jump in operating earnings for the first quarter to 45 cents a share from 23 cents a year ago.
The 45 cents a share topped the consensus estimate of 38 cents a share. The stock responded bullishly to the news.
TTD's 10 minute chart shows SVR shooting higher in the morning on strong volume. However, the stock sagged back around midday, when the stock market weakened. The pullback, though came on lighter volume. So, the drop could well have been due to an absence of buyers.
The stock lifted modestly in the late afternoon.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks in SVR.
One can see the key trade today being a big block of 22,600 shares crossing at $21.05. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $19.54.
However, the tape also showed accumulation on the day before. A big block of 23,900 shares crossed at $20.48. That was up sharply from the prior block at $20.08.
SVR's strong profits for the quarter reflected strength in roaming and message lines for businesses. Message revenues for the quarter jumped to $47.4 million from $9.4 million a year ago.
The company’s data clearinghouse, network and technology services solve technical and operational problems for the wireless industry by translating incompatible communication standards and protocols and simplifying operator interconnectivity.
The range of transaction-based services allows operators to deliver seamless voice, data and other services to wireless subscribers. ,
The Company provides its services to about 650 operators in over 140 countries.
SVR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% compared with a 30% gain for the S&P 500 index.
SVR's long-term chart shows the stock advancing strongly from a low 6 in 2008. The stock is now moving closer to attack its all-time high at 24.59 set in 2006. If SVR can make a new high, the stock could attract more of a following.
SVR's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 16 in February to 20. The stock then set up a flat base. Today's breakout looked strong in the morning with the stock driving sharply higher.
However, weakness in the stock market pulled SVR back. However, it just held above its breakpoint.
The basing work was above the 50-day moving average line. That shows the stock has generated upside momentum prior to the breakout. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.
This year, analysts forecast SVR will show 30% gain in net to $1.73 a share from $1.33 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 11. That is low given the growth rate. So, TTD sees the stock as a good value-growth play.
The Street looks for a 23% gain in net to 42 cents a share from 34 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 47 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: SVR's breakout was inhibited by the weak stock market. TTD suggests scaling into this breakout. TTD is targeting SVR for a move to 27 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 18. TTD rate SVR a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Common Stock Fund which purchased 635,000 shares. Another key buyer was 4-star rated Van Kampen Small Cap Value Fund which picked up 120,900 shares. SVR has 69.3 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately. Currently, 15 analysts follow the stock, 13 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Synverse Holdings Inc. - (SVR)
|TTD Check List||Bullish||Bearish||Neutral|
|Near 52-week High||YES|
|Price Trend - Daily||YES|
|Price Trend - Long Term||YES|
|Price Daily Spread||YES|
|Base - A-D||YES|
|Prior Breakout Success||YES|
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
|TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SUMR - AVERAGE|
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 12
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Breakdown list is large today as stock market continues selloff. Bears be selective looking for stocks with flawed fundamentals, or set to report lower earnings or a loss.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
ONXX, based in Emeryville, Ca., develops therapies to treat cancer. Annual revenues: $251 million. ONXX's stock gaps lower today in heavy volume. The company reported a surprise loss for the first quarter. The loss was much greater than any analysts had forecast. So far today, ONXX is trading 4.9 million shares, about five times its normal daily volume of 1 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
ONXX came in with a first quarter loss of 19 cents a share compared with a profit of 7 cents a year ago.
The loss was much greater than the profit of one cent a share expected by a consensus of analysts.
ONXX's stock gapped lower in the morning. It touched a low of 25.28. Then, it had a bounce higher, faded and then trended sideways. The stock was not able to show any significant lift after the decline.
ONXX's tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $27.70 to $26.10. A key trade came at the opening when a big block of 70,189 shares crossed the tape at $26.60. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $27.70.
The tape action showed in the morning aggressive institutional selling pressure.
ONXX works with Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals. ONXX’s product, Nexavar (sorafenib) tablets are being developed with Bayer. They were approved by the FDA to treat patients with advanced kidney cancer and unresectable liver cancer.
Nexavar is an orally available kinase and angiogenesis inhibitor that targets both cancer cell proliferation and tumor growth through the inhibition of key signaling pathways.
This year, analysts were looking for an 83% drop in ONXX's net to 9 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago. The estimate for this year probably will be lowered.
ONXX's daily chart shows the gap lower today. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke down several months ago. It was unable to generate any buying.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ONXX for a drop to 21.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 27.70.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)