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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, May 5

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Thursday, May 5

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 2


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short


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Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - May 5, 2011


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term."  Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.

(See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

 1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays)  these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.   


  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 14

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Quite a few breakouts today even as stock market declines late in the day. Bulls be careful and watchful of all stops.  Market is still vulnerable to more on the downside.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 


Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Thursday - May 5

Quote or chart

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)


Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Towers Watson & Co. (TW) - 61.53, up 5.28 - Breakpoint 59.49

Profits Surge, TTD Targets 75

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TW  - ABOVE AVERAGE

  TW, based in Arlington, Va., is a consulting firm covering employee benefits and management and capital management. Annual revenues: $3.1 billion. TW's stock gaps sharply higher today to breakout from a two-month base. The driver for the move was a report of strong quarterly earnings. So far today, TW is trading 1.8 million shares, eight times its normal daily volume of  244,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted TW as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web.

  TW's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning and breaking out. The stock sagged back a little, but then rallied again. It spent the afternoon trending sideways.

  TW reported net for the fiscal third quarter surged to 94 cents a share from 12 cents a year ago. On an adjusted basis net was $1.37 for the quarter, well above Street estimates.

  The stock responded very bullishly to the earnings news.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $56.12 a few days ago to as high as $61.35.

  The key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 18,400 shares crossed the tape at $60.95. That was up from the prior block trade at $56.26.

  The tape showed aggressive institutional buying.

  TW is a global professional services firm.

  It offers solutions in the areas of employee benefits, talent management, rewards, and risk and capital management.

 The company's benefits solutions cover health and group benefits, mergers and acquisitions, retirement, and technology and administration.

  Its risk and financial services solutions include financial modeling software, investment, reinsurance, insurance consulting, mergers and acquisitions, and risk management.

  Its talent and rewards solutions cover communication and change, employee surveys, HR function effectiveness, rewards, talent management, data services, executive compensation, mergers and acquisitions, and sales effectiveness and compensation. TW was formerly known as Watson Wyatt Worldwide, Inc.

  TW's 9-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 30% versus a 20% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  TW's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in early 2010 and trading around 50. The stock declined to 40 by mid-year. Then in the second half of 2010 it began to rally. The push higher has continued into this year. TW is poised to make a new high, which would be bullish.   

  TW's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 40 back in July to a peak of 59. The resulting base was bracketed between 59 and 55, which is tight.

  The stocks breakout is impressive coming with expanding volume, a gap move, and a widening of the daily trading spread.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That shows there has been solid buying in the stock as it based.

  This fiscal year ending June 30, analysts have been forecasting a 14% increase in net to $3.41 a share from $3 a year ago. Those estimates may be boosted.

  Overall, the stock has a price-earnings ratio of  17. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Looking out to fiscal 2012 ending in June, Wall Street is forecasting an 18% gain in net to $4 a share from the anticipated $3.41 for fiscal 2011.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in June, earnings are projected to rise 27% to 87 cents a share from 69 cents a year ago. That is well above the firm's annual growth rate.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TW for a move to 75. A protective stop can be placed near 57. TTD rates TW an average intermediate-term play most suitable for conservative investors.

 Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is Artisan Mid Cap Value Investor Fund with a  3.2% stake. The 5-star fund was a recent buyer of 29,700 shares. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Fund which purchased 60,200 shares. It is the second largest fund holder at 1.5%. TW has 74.6 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were recent sellers around $57 and $56. Currently, eight analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, down from 4 three months ago.



Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Towers Watson & Co.  - (TW)  
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES    
Base - A-D YES
Earnings-Quarterly YES  
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES  
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PPO  - ABOVE AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BMC  - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - M  - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MW  - BELOW AVERAGE


Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 11

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Good number of breakdowns stocks today as stock market turns sharply lower in the afternoon. Bears be aggressive.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) - 21.51, down 3.98

Forecasts Weak Earnings, TTD Sees Side to 17

  ARO, based in New York, sells apparel to young people. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. ARO's stock falls sharply today after the company cuts its earnings forecast for the fiscal first quarter ending April 30. The stock took a dive gaping lower and below key technical support. So far today, ARO is trading 9.1 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of  1.5 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  ARO said earnings for the quarter would be about 20 cents a share instead of the 35 to 38 cents a share expected by the Street.

  The 20 cents a share would compare with the 48 cents a year ago. So, there will be a big drop in profits. The company said same stores will be down 7% for the quarter.

  ARO's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 21.38. The stock was unable to mount a significant rally.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see a bearish block trade in the morning when 101,939 shares crossed the tape at $23.11. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $24.94. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.

  ARO sells casual apparel and accessories mostly for young women and men.

 The company maintains control over its proprietary brands by designing, sourcing, marketing and selling all of its own merchandise. ARO's  products are currently purchased only in its stores, on-line through its e-commerce website or at organized sales events at college campuses.

  Analysts have been forecasting an 8% decline in net for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2012 to $2.34 a share from $2.54 a year ago. TTD sees chances for the year forecast to be lowered.

  ARO's chart shows a gap drop today with big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) turned bearish a few sessions ago. The drop today undercuts key support near 23, which had held for several months.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARM for a decline to 17 within the next few months, or sooner. The stock's fundamental crack could well chase away institutional buyers. A protective stop buy can be placed near 23.


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARM -  AVERAGE


TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)