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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday, May 7, 2008


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Very few breakouts today as stock market falls sharply. Bulls remain patient and watchful.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Mariner Energy Inc. (ME) - 32.02, up 2.54 - Breakpoint 30.20

Quarterly Profit Growth to Accelerate, TTD Targets 40

  ME, based in Houston, is an oil and gas producer operating onshore in West Texas and offshore in shelf and deep-waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Annual revenues: $875 million. ME breaks out today from an 11-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high on expanding volume. Energy stock's are one of the strongest sectors of the market.

  TTD highlighted ME as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web today.

  So far today, the stock is trading 1.8 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 879,000 shares.

  The stock acted strong early in the session. TTD's table shows a big block of 11,800 shares crossing in the morning on a modest up tick to $30.31 from the prior trade at $30.30. The trades was one of the largest of the day for the stock.

  The trigger for the breakout was ME checking in with an 82% increase in first quarter earnings to 82 cents a share from 45 cents a year ago. The 82 cents topped the consensus Street estimate of 71 cents a share. The highest estimate was at 87 cents a share. Revenues for the quarter surged to $316 million from $212 million a year ago.

ME owns offshore Gulf of Mexico properties that were spun off from Forest Oil through an exchange of stock. (see Map)  After adding Forest assets, year-end 2006 proved reserves were 716 billion cubic feet of natural-gas equivalent, with 46% in the Gulf of Mexico shelf, 18% deep-water, and 36% onshore Texas.     

  TTD's long-term chart shows ME in a strong up trend and making a new high.

  TTD's performance chart shows the stock up 40% the past 12 months against a 5% decline by the S&P.

  ME's daily chart shows the base which is bracketed between 26 and 30. The breakout today is very good showing a widening of the spread (range from high to low) and a good push from the top of the base.

  The technicals are bullish. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has pushed over to the bullish side. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a solid up trend showing that buying still predominates and there is no subtle selling.

  This year, analysts forecast an 89% increase in ME's profits to $3.15 a share from $1.67 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 9. That is low given the current growth rate. The company is obviously benefiting from the highest price for oil and gas.

  Net for next year is projected to be off 5% to $3 a share.

  For the second quarter an acceleration in growth to 107% is expected with net hitting 79 cents a share, up from 38 cents a year ago. That quarterly acceleration in growth should be the driver to send the stock higher.

  Strategy Opinion: Near-term ME looks very good both technically and with earnings. TTD is targeting the stock for a run to 38 to 40 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 29, which is tight. TTD would treat the stock as a trading play because of a concern about a slowdown in earnings growth next year.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer lately was 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund which purchased 500,000 shares. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund with a 2% stake. It has held its position steady.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Steady insider selling going on for the past few months. Eight analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.



  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Mariner Energy Inc.  (ME)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion Yes  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

  


Charts of Breakout Stocks




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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks even though market moves sharply lower. Bears be selective.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Orasure Technologies Inc. (OSUR) - 5.46, off 1.07

Forecasts Loss, TTD Sees Slide to 4

OSUR, based in Bethlehem, Pa., makes medical-diagnostic products used to test patients for the HIV infection and for illegal substances. Annual revenues: $83 million. OSUR falls sharply today after forecasting a loss for the second quarter. The stock broke down hard in the morning and has not been able to mount a rally. TTD sees more on the downside. So far today, OSUR is trading 702,136 shares, triple its normal daily volume of  201,000 shares.

 TTD's clip of the tape shows that OSUR came under heavy selling pressure in the morning. A block of 14,922 shares, one of the largest trades of the day, crossed at $5.94, down from the prior trade at $6. The action indicated heavy selling pressure off the news.

 OSUR came in with first quarter net of 4 cents a share, up from 3 cents a year ago.

  However, it said for the second quarter it expects a loss of 6 to 7 cents a share. The Street was forecasting a loss of only one cent a share to two cents a share. So, the news was a disappointment. Part of the weak forecast was due to the loss of a contract for OraQuick HIV.

For the year, analysts were looking for a profit of 5 cents a share compared with 5 cents a year ago. This year's forecast could be cut by analysts.

Aside from its core oral test kits, OSUR makes a blood diagnostic kit for HIV testing. The company markets its products primarily to the healthcare and insurance industries in the U.S. and abroad.

 TTD's daily chart shows the stock in a clear down trend. Today, it gaps lower on big volume. The accumulation - distribution line is trending lower showing that there is clear selling pressure. TTD is targeting OSUR for a decline to 4 within the next few months or sooner. The stock is a good play for aggressive bears.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)