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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 6, 2019 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - May 8, 2019
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Market averages are bearish on the daily time line. Bullish on the weekly and Monthly.
Comment - TTD sees the market in a consolidation pattern after a good move higher in recent months.
See Latest Earnings Reports - A company that tops the Street's highest earnings estimate has potential to go higher. Key earnings beats for Wednesday - none.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
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Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
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Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
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Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
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S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's 
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TEAM - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TEAM, based in San Francisco, produces computer software and hosting services. Annual revenues: $874 million. TEAM breaks out Wednesday from an eight-week flat base. The move carries the stock close to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
So far today, TEAM is trading a heavy 3.6 million shares compared with 2.1 million shares, its average daily volume.
TTD sees more on the upside.
TEAM's stock moved higher in the morning It crossed its breakpoint line in the early afternoon. 
The stock continued higher and closed near its high for the session. That is bullish.
Tape Action
TEAM's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $110.67 in the prior session to as high as $117.30 in the afternoon.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 49,100 shares (duplicated) crossed in the morning at $113.70.
That was up from the prior block at $110.67 on 41,347 shares late on Tuesday.
Near the close a block of 51,255 shares (duplicated) crossed at $117.17. 
That was up from the prior block at $117 on 300,258 shares. (duplicated).
Business
TEAM has several software products. They include: JIRA, Confluence, HipChat, Bitbucket and JIRA Service Desk, for software developers and information technology managers.
The company offers JIRA for team planning and project management. Confluence is for team content creation and sharing;
HipChat is for team real-time messaging and communications and Bitbucket is for team code sharing and management.
JIRA allows teams to organize their work into projects and customize dashboards for those projects to keep their teams aligned and on track.
Charts
TEAM's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 84% versus a 9% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have not reported any activity.
TEAM's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in January of 2016 at $28.94.
The stock rose quickly to $39 in 2017 and then based. The stock broke out in mid-2017 and raced to $98.21 late last year. It based again and has since moved higher reaching an all-time high of $117.45 Wednesday.
TEAM's daily chart shows the stock climbing from around $80 in December to around $116 by March.
The stock put down a flat base with one shake out to the downside when it reported earnings.
After that the stock rallied nicely back to the breakpoint line.
Wednesday, it moves higher and clears its breakpoint line
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This fiscal year ending in June analysts are forecasting a 67% jump in net to 82 cents a share from 49 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 142. That is high. So, the stock is most suitable for aggressive investors.
Going out to fiscal 2020 ending in June, the Street projects a 20% gain in net to 98 cents a share from the anticipated 82 cents this year.
Net for the fiscal fourth quarter ending in June should be up 23% to 16 cents a share from the 13 cents the year before.
12 analysts follow the stock.
Profits for the fiscal first quarter ending in September should be up 10% to 22 cents a share from 20 cents the year before.
The company beat the Street estimate the past four quarters by 3 cents a share, 4 cents, one cent and one cent.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TEAM for a move to $138 during the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near $110.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. TEAM has tended to score some good gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish. TEAM rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish - TEAM rose an average of 5.4% in May and 3.7% in June the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
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Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
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27% |
1/23/2019 |
90.51 |
115.60 |
4/2/2019 |
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37% |
7/27/2018 |
69.93 |
96.14 |
9/28/2018 |
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4% |
1/17/2018 |
53.47 |
55.60 |
1/18/2018 |
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41% |
10/4/2017 |
37.39 |
52.94 |
11/8/2017 |
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20% |
4/6/2017 |
31.32 |
37.71 |
5/6/2017 |
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20% |
6/15/2016 |
25.99 |
31.36 |
9/22/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
| TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARCE - AVERAGE |
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TTEC - AVERAGE |
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OUT - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 13
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - large list of breakdown stocks with some good plays for aggressive bears.
MPC, based in Findley, Ohio, provides refining, marketing and transportation of oil. Annual revenues: $1.3 billion. MPC's stock falls sharply Wednesday after reporting a loss for the first quarter. TTD sees more on the downside. 
So far today, MPC is trading a heavy 16 million shares, about double its average daily volume of 6.6 million shares.
MPC reported a loss for the first quarter of 9 cents a share. That was a surprise. The Street was predicting a profit of 18 cents a share.
The stock moved lower in the morning and undercut key technical support.
MPC continued lower in the afternoon and closed near its low for the session. That is bearish. 
Tape Action
MPC's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $59.43 in the prior session to as low as $55.23 near the close Wednesday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 75,503 shares crossed the tape at $57.76.
That was down from the prior block at $59.43 on 399,155 shares late on Tuesday.
Business
MPC refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its seven refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the U.S.
It transports fuels to the Midwest, East Coast and Southeast regions of the U.S.
The company also gathers, processes and transports natural gas, natural gas liquids , crude oil and refined products.
Earnings:
This year, analysts were forecasting a 21% decline in net to $5.38 a share from the $6.78 the year before. However, this year's estimate could get cut. 10 analysts follow the stock.
Net for the second quarter is expected to drop 13% to $1.98 a share from the $2.27 the year before.
Charts:
MPC's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with heavy volume. The stock was trying to form a bottom after a decline from $88 back in September.
MPC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 28% versus a 9% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MPC for a decline to $47 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be set at $57.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. - MPC rose 3 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. - MPC averaged a decline of 1% in May and a decline of 0.1% in June the past several years.
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MPC - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-878-8381 or 480-704-3331
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
