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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday, May 9, 2008


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -  Small list of breakouts today but a few outstanding plays. Bulls be selective and patient.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Priceline,com Inc. (PCLN) - 141.79, up 18.01 - Breakpoint 132.45

Posts Strong Net, Boosts Forecast, TTD Targets 175

 PCLN, based Norwalk, Ct. is an online travel agency offering travel products such as airline tickets, hotel rooms, and car rentals. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. PCLN gaps higher at the opening to breakout from a 12-week flat base. The move was triggered by a strong earnings report. TTD had highlighted PCLN as an accumulation buy in recent weeks. So far today, PCLN is trading 5.6 million shares. four times its normal daily volume of 1.3 million shares.

  The stock started to move higher early in the day. TTD's clip shows one of the largest trades today in PCLN. It was a big block of 41,826 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $140 from the prior trade at $139.97.

  PCLN was highlighted as a breakout at TTD's midsession show on the Web today.

  PCLN's system allows customers to make offers at prices they set, while allowing sellers, which include airline, hotel, and rental car companies, to generate incremental revenue. The company also owns Booking.com, one of the largest and fastest-growing OTAs in Europe, which now accounts for the majority of its profits.

  Today, PCLN reported a profit for the first quarter of 37 cents a share compared with a loss of 44 cents a year ago. Revenues for the quarter increased 34%.

  TTD sees the key driving the stock higher was PCLN's forecast that second quarter net would be between $1.25 to $1.40 a share. The Street consensus for the quarter was at $1.22 a share. So, that was a bullish surprise. The highest estimate for the second quarter was $1.37 a share. Last year, PCLN earned $1 a share.      

 TTD's performance chart of PCLN shows the stock up 150% the past 12 months compared with a 5% loss for the S&P 500. The stock is a leader breaking out.

  The stock's base is bracketed between $110 and $130. The gap move to the upside on big volume is extremely bullish technically. The stock was well set up for a breakout.

  PCLN's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is now slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.

  TTD's long-term chart shows PCLN is a solid bull market phase.

  This year, analysts predict PCLN's earnings will climb 35% to $4.76 a share from $3.53 a share. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  29 based on this year's estimated net.

TTD sees the p/e as reasonable. Next year, the Street is forecasting a 28% gain in net to $6.10 a share. The company said it is showing good growth in both domestic and international markets.

  Strategy Opinion: PCLN's breakout is impressive. It shows that the stock has a following. The stock was listed on TTD's breakout watch list. TTD is targeting PCLN for a trip to 175 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 133. TTD rates PCLN a very good intermediate-term play because of its strong earnings outlook.

 Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a  3% stake. It has held its position steady. The largest fund buyer lately was 4-star rated Morgan Stanley Institutional Mid Cap Growth Fund which purchased 468,000 shares. Another key buyer was Fidelity Capital Appreciation Fund which added 387,000 shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders did some light selling after exercising option buys. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, down from 6 three months ago.


  


  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

  


Charts of Breakout Stocks





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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 11

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Good number of breakdown stocks today as market declines. Bears be venturesome. TTD's short from Thursday Hansen Natural (HANS) falls 1.66 to 28.48 today.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

American International Group Inc. (AIG) - 40.35 off 3.80

Shows Loss for Quarter, TTD Sees Decline to 33

  AIG is a diversified insurance company. Annual revenues: $111 billion. AIG's stock falls sharply today in heavy volume after reporting a loss of $12.5 billion. The company is one of the largest insurance firms. The loss was due to weakness in the credit and equity markets. The breakdown today comes on heavy volume. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, AIG is down about 3 points. Volume is running at 72 million shares. four times its average daily volume of 16 million shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock coming under heavy selling pressure early in the day. A big block of  2 million shares crossed on a big down tick to $41 from the prior trade at $41.59. The action indicated heavy institutional selling pressure.

   The big insurance firm reported a first quarter loss of $1.41 a share compared with a profit of $1.68 a share a year ago. The company tried to counter the awful results by raising its dividend and setting plans for a stock offering.

 AIG  is a diversified financial-services firm that offers property-casualty insurance, life insurance, asset management, retirement income, private banking, aircraft leasing, mortgages, credit cards, and derivative products to a global client base of individuals and institutions.

 Insurance accounts for 60% of revenues. The majority of AIG's life insurance sales originate in Asia, where the firm has important operations in China and Japan.

  TTD's daily chart shows AIG in a down trend and trying to form a bottom in the low-40s. That has failed as the stock gaps lower on big volume today. The stock was unable to mount any kind of effective rally during the day. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is extremely bearish. The accumulation - distribution line is moving lower confirming the bearish technical pattern.

  TTD sees AIG as "poison" to most institutional portfolios. WE are calling for AIG to decline to 33 during the coming months.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)