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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 9 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 13
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts with some quality plays. Stock Market showing good rebound from recent selling. Bulls be venturesome.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ESRX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ESRX, based in St. Louis, is a major pharmacy benefit management
company. Annual revenues: $45 billion. ESRX's stock breaks out today from a 17-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new high. ESRX is a big cap leader. It is part of TTD's long-term portfolio.
So far today, ESRX is trading 3.7 million
shares. Its average daily volume is 4.7 million shares. 
TTD highlighted ESRX as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
ESRX's 10 minute chart shows the stock advancing strongly in the morning. It crossed its breakpoint line and then pulled back to the line and rested. In the afternoon, it resumed its up trend clearing the breakpoint nicely.
ESRX is a conservative play, but a solid one. It has a beta of 0.86 versus 1.00 for the stock market. It has been outstanding long-term play.
ESRX's clip of the tape shows bullish tape action with the price of the big blocks climbing from $57.79 in the morning to a peak of $59.10. A key bullish trade
was a block of 75,000 shares that crossed in the morning at $58.62.
That was up from the prior block trade at $57.79. 
ESRX operates in the U.S. and Canada. The company serves thousands of client groups, including managed care organizations, insurance carriers, third-party administrators, employers and union-sponsored benefit plans.
ESRX's 3-year performance chart shows the stock appreciating 64% and weathering the bear market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined 5%.
ESRX's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 10 back in 2004 to 58. The breakout to a new high is very bullish and could bring in more buying from the new-high crowd Tuesday.
ESRX's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 48 back in October
to a peak of 58 in January. The stock has since put in a basing pattern that showed a lot volatility considering it is a low-beta issue. However, ESRX has since rebounded strongly and today breaks out. 
ESRX's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That shows even when the stock sold off in March there was still strong accumulation. That is impressive!
This year analysts forecast a 28% gain in ESRX's net to $3.19 a share from $2.50 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth rate. So, the stock should be very attractive for conservative value investors.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 19% to 72 cents a share from 60 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 76 cents a share. Going out to the third quarter, TTD sees an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth coming. Net should climb 29% to 84 cents a share from 65 cents a year ago.
Strategy Opinion: ÉSRX is an excellent long-term play. Today it breaks out nicely. TTD is targeting ESRX for a move to 70. A protective stop can be placed near 55 after a breakout. TTD rate ESRX an excellent intermediate-term play for conservative investors.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fundholder is Davis NY Venture Fund with a 2.3% stake. The 2-star rated fund has held its position steady. The largest buyer recently was Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 568,915 shares. ESRX has 529 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Some light buying by insiders. Currently, 28 analysts follow the stock, 22 have a buy, down from 23 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Express Scripts Inc. - (ESRX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EL -ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TRCR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FEIC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NUAN - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as stock market pushes higher. Bears be selective going with fundamentally damaged stocks.
PETS, based in Pompano Beach, Fla., provides pet pharmacy services. Annual revenues: $231 million. PETS stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The company posted lower profits for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31. So far today, PETS is trading a heavy 1.9 million shares, 12 times its normal daily volume of 149,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
PETS reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter declined to 19 cents a share from the 27 cents a year ago.
Wall Street was expecting a decline in net, but only to 22 cents a share. The lowest estimate was at 21 cents. So, the news was a negative surprise and the stock responded bearishly to the news.
PETS stock fell sharply in the morning. It then trended sideways. However, in the afternoon, it had another leg down. It hit an intraday low of $12.70.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades. One can see a very bearish block cross around midday. That was when 96,537 shares crossed the tape at $13.25. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $13.51. The trade coming well after the news would indicate that some institution was dumping the stock.
PETS is America's largest pet pharmacy, delivering prescription and non-prescription pet medications and health and nutritional supplements for dogs and cats.
This fiscal year ending March of 2012 analysts forecast flat earnings.
PETS daily chart shows the sock peaking around 18 and then declining. It tried to hold technical support near 14. However, today it breaks down big time.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PETS for a scoot down to 10.20 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 13.60.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PETS - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
