Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 7 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Very few breakouts today. Bulls be patient. Stock market holds in up trend with momentum still bullish. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum:
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DNKN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
DNKN, based in Canton, Ma., owns Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins ice cream stores. Annual revenues: $641 million. DNKN's stock breaks out and clears a nine-week base today. The stock, an IPO from last year, hits a new high. So far today, volume is running at 1.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.1 million shares.
DNKN"s 10-minute chart shows the stock getting over its breakpoint on Thursday.
Friday, the stock pushes higher and clears its base and holds its gain. The stock's action for the past two sessions is very bullish considering the stock market was acting weak.
DNKN came public back in July of 2011 and opened at 25. The stock had a bumpy ride afterwards, but has since been trending higher.
DNKN's tape action is show by its recent big block trades.
One can see the big block trade prices climbing from $32.28 on Thursday to as high as $33.67 Friday.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 39,600 shares crossed the tape in the morning at $33.20. That was up nicely from the prior block at $32.93.
DNKN owns, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants worldwide.
It serves hot and cold coffee and baked goods, as well as ice cream. Its brands include Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins.
Dunkin’ Brands serves coffee and baked goods, as well as ice cream within the quick service restaurant segment of the restaurant industry.
The company operates its business in four segments: Dunkin’ Donuts U.S., Dunkin’ Donuts International, Baskin-Robbins International and Baskin-Robbins U.S.
DNKN is now expanding worldwide at a greater clip.
DNKN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 20% versus a 1% gain for the S&P 500 index.
DNKN's long-term chart shows the stock coming public last year at 25. It climbed to as high as $31.94 in August of 2011. However, afterwards you might said it got dunked falling back to $23.24 by late in the year. However, the stock has since perked up nicely and is trending higher.
DNKN's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 23 in December to 32 by March. It then formed a cup-and-handle base ...appropriate for the stock!
The stock broke out but faded back. However, Friday, it clears the base.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation-distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend showing there is good buying in the stock.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 33% jump in profits to $1.25 a share from 94 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 26. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to 2013, the Street looks for a 16% gain in net to $1.45 a share from the anticipated $1.25 this year.
However, for the second quarter, earnings are expected to drop 67% to 33 cents a share from 99 cents a year ago. However, the price action of the stock appears to have discounted the earnings already. Going out to the third quarter, profits are expected to rise 24% to 35 cents a share from 28 cents a year ago.
The company has been lifting its revenue forecast
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DNKN for a move to 41 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 30.
TTD rates DNKN an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fundholder is 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 5.7% stake. It was a recent buyer of 311,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund was a recent buyer of 1.8 million shares. It ha a 2.9% stake. DNKN has 120.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 95% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Extremely Bearish. Insiders have been buyers using stock options at $3.02. They turned around and sold at $33. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Dunkin Brands Group Inc. - (DNKN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MDVN - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARIA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of shorts with several with fundamental problems. Bears be venturesome. TTD's short from Thursday was Silicon Graphics Intl. (SGI) at 6.63. Today, SGI has declined to 6.04 and is working great for bears.
ASYS, based in Phoenix, makes products used by semiconductor producers. Annual revenues: $218 million. ASYS's stock falls sharply today with heavy volume. The decline was triggered by a loss for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31. So far today, ASYS is trading a heavy 624,306 shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 89,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted ASYS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The stock gapped lower in the morning and continued to head south through the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $7.05 a few days ago to $5.72.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,009 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $6. That was down from the prior block at $6.95. The tape showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
ASYS reported a loss for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31 of 54 cents a share compared with a profit of 77 cents a share a year ago. The Street was estimating a loss of 22 cents a share. So, the results were worse than expected. The stock responded bearishly to the news.
ASYS makes capital equipment. It has obtained a U.S. patent on technology for a new photo chemical vapor deposition product for use in semiconductor manufacturing.. The company has engaged the University of California, Santa Cruz, to conduct a study to determine the feasibility of such a product.
This fiscal year ending September 30 analysts forecast ASYS will show a loss of 56 cents a share compared with a profit of $2.53 a share a year ago.
ASYS's daily chart shows the stock trending lower, then trying to form a bottom, but now breaking down. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a sharp down trend showing that selling pressure has been heavy.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ASYS for a decline to 4.10 within the next few months, or sooner. The stock has the potential to go even lower. A protective stop buy can be placed 6.30.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ASYS - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)