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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - May 16, 2008

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Very few breakout stocks today. They are dominated by the energy issues. Bulls remain cautious.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Ensco International Inc. (ESV) - 72.68,  up 2.52 - Breakpoint 70.40

Net to Rise 22% This Year, Hits New High, TTD Targets 92

   ESV, based in Dallas, provides drilling services to the oil industry. Annual revenues: $2.2 billion. ESV, part of the strong acting oil drilling sector today, breaks out from a 5-week base and hits a new high. So far today, volume is running at 4.8 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.1 million shares. ESV and several other drilling stocks are doing well because of the strong demand internationally for their services and equipment.

   The stock showed signs early in the session of acting strong. TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 142,400 shares crossing on a nice up tick to $70.90 from the prior trade at $70.49.

  The block was worth about $10.3 million. It showed aggressive institutional buying.

 ESV owns one of the newest jack-up fleets in the contract drilling industry.

 The company drills for oil and natural gas globally. The firm has been acquiring jack-ups since the early 1990s and has recently expanded its 46 jack-up fleet with its first semisubmersible. It has several additional semisubmersibles under construction.

   TTD's performance chart shows that ESV has appreciated 22% the past 12 months compared with a 5% decline by the S&P 500 index.

   TTD's long-term chart shows the stock began to move higher in mid-2004. It has been trending higher nicely with pauses for consolidations.

  TTD's daily chart shows the five-week base. It was set up after ESV rallied from around 50 to 70. The base is short. Normally, one would expect a need for more time to consolidate. However, ESV is on the move again.

  The stock did advance nicely in the prior session on expanding volume.

  Technically, ESV has a lot going for it. The stock is part of one of the strongest market sectors - oil. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new peak. That confirms the breakout as being supported by strong buying.

  This year, ESV should post a 22% increase in net to $8.19 a share from $6.73 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  8. TTD sees that as low given the strong profit growth for this year.

  Looking out to 2009, analysts predict net will rise 8% to $8.83 a share.

 The company is doing well because of the high price of crude now at $126 a barrel. That is causing an increase in demand for drilling services.

  For the upcoming second quarter, analysts look for a 14% gain in net and for the third quarter a 17% rise.

  Strategy Opinion: ESV is acting strong and the move to the new high could well attract more buying on Monday. TTD is calling or ESV to advance to 92 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 69. TTD rates ESV more of a trading play because of the expected slow down in earnings growth next year.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated FPA Capital Fund with a 1.6% stake. It has held its position steady. Several index funds are large holders. ESV has 144 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 11.5 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers recently but they turned around and sold. Right now, 22 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, down from 13 three months ago.


  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.

TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Ensco International Inc.  (ESV)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure   YES
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES YES
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


Charts of Breakout Stocks

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today.  Bears be selective.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Exar Corp. (EXAR) - 7.75 off 1.26

Reports Bigger Loss, TTD Sees Decline to 6

EXAR, based in Fremont, Ca., develops analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits. Annual revenues: $80 million. EXA, a small cap tech stock, falls sharply today after reporting a larger loss. The stock's gap drop comes on a big expansion in volume to 1.3 million shares so far today, four times its normal daily volume of 339,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD's clip of the tape highlights a block trade of 5,000 shares in the morning that went off on a modest down tick to $7.84 a share from $7.85.

  EXAR reported net loss for the fiscal fourth quarter (March 31) swelled to $3.77 a share from a loss of 24 cents a share a year ago. The results were a big disappointment for the bulls - opening the door for the bears. The loss for the current quarter included special charges.

 EXAR's products include data converters, repeater circuits, framers, buffers, transcoders, and transceivers for use in high-speed data transmission equipment, speakerphone components, and pressure sensors for use in telecommunication, data-communication, imaging, and video products.

 The company outsources most of its manufacturing. The company markets its products in the United States and overseas.

  TTD's daily chart shows the stock in a clear down trend having fallen from 15 to 7. It attempted to rally, but that move was snuffed out. The gap drop today on big volume is very bearish. TTD is targeting EXAR for a decline to 6. We see the stock as a good trading short for aggressive bears.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)