Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 14, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - May 16, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 17
Quality of Breakouts - Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts Wednesday with some very good plays. Bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Bullish. All major averages remain bullish in all time sectors. Long-term, the stock market is in a trading range.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NGVT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NGVT, based in North Charleston, S.C., makes specialty chemicals and high performance carbon materials. Annual revenues: $972 million. NGVT's stock moves higher Wednesday and breaks out from its 13-week, cup-and-handle base.
The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish. NGVT's stock came public in 2016.
So far today NGVT is trading 308,342 shares. Its average daily volume is 217,000 shares.
NGVT's stock moved higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line about midsessin.
The stock reached an intraday peak of $83.21 around midday. It then trended sideways into the final bell.
Tape Action
NGVT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $79.79 late on Tuesday to as high as $83.15.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,800 shares crossed the tape at $81.11.
That was up from the prior block trade at $79.79 on 2,100 shares on Tuesday.
Near the clsoe a block of 37,457 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $82.85.
That trade came on an up tick from the prior trade at $82.82 on 100 shares.
Business
NGVT makes activated carbon used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats.
The company's products are also used for asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, publication inks and automotive emission reduction.
Charts
NGVT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 42% versus a 14% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have been receiving stock options but have not done any buying. They have not done any selling this year.
NGVT's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2016 at $22. The stock has been in a solid long-term up trend to $82 - a quadruple.
NGVT's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $68 in February to a peak near at $82 the same month.
The stock put down a cup-and-handle base.
The base morphed into a flat base.
Wednesday, NGVT drives through upside resistance to clear its basing pattern.
The move comes with good volume.
The CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 33% jump in net to $3.44 a share from the $2.58 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23. TTD sees that attractive for growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street predicts a 22% increase in net to $4.20 a share from the anticipated $3.44 this year.
Net for the upcoming second quarter is expected to climb 26% to 98 cents a share from the 78 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.10 a share. TTD sees good chances for an earnings upside surprise. The company topped the consensus the past four quarters by 18 cents a share, 9 cents, 11 cents and 8 cents.
Net for the third quarter is projected to be up 16% to $1 a share from the 86 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NGVT for a move to $105 within the next few months.
A protective stop can be placed near $78 after a breakout.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. NGVT has scored good gains off its recent breakouts. The stock is in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. NGVT rose 5 times after the past 7 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. NGVT has averaged a gain of 8% in May and 7.8% in June the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
24% |
10/2/2017 |
64.03 |
79.59 |
11/30/2017 |
9% |
3/2/2017 |
56.85 |
61.81 |
3/29/2017 |
19% |
12/16/2016 |
48.17 |
57.39 |
2/16/2017 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Ingevity Corp. (NGVT) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WLK - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VRS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FICO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TROW - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts Wednesday. Bears be conservative.
PPL, based in Allentown, Pa., is a utility firm. providenig electricity and natural gas in the U.S. and the U.K. PPL's stock moves lower Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, PPL is trading 8 million shares. Its average daily volume is 7.2 million.
PPL's stock fell sharply in the morning and undercut key technical support. The stock touched an intraday low of $26.87 in the morning.
The stock then trended sideways and lifted slighlty in the afternoon.
Tape Action
PPL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $27.25 in the morning to as low as $26.93.
A key bearish trade came near the close Wednesday when a block of 2.1 million shares crossed the tape (duplicated) at $27.01.
That was down from the prior block trade at $27.02 on 18,500 shares.
Business
PPL proivdes electricity to customers in the U.K.., Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee. It delivers natural gas to customers in Kentucky.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 2% increase in net to $2.30 a share from $2.22 the year before.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 2%, but decline 3% in the third quarter.
Charts:
PPL's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from $36 back in November to around $28 by March. The stock then trended sideways. However, Wednesday, PPL cut below support.
PPL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 30% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PPL for a decline to $22.50. A protective stop buy can be placed near $28.50.
Suitability: Conservative Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish. PPL rose just 5 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bearish. PPL rose an average of 1.4% in May but declined 2.1% in June the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PPL- BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)