Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of  Breakout Stocks - Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Daily - Bullish Aggressive Investor - Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (74% win rate) - Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday -  May 17, 2017

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

      Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

    To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.    For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Wednesday - May 17, 2017

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6

Quality of Breakouts - Average. Small list of breakout stocks and very selective.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side - Sharp decline in the stock market. Bulls should be conservative and watchful of positions.

Stock market  - Major averages on a daily basis have now turned bearish. Longer term indicators still bullish.

Stock Market Momentum

(Based on 14 unit moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Wednesday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Progressive Corp. Ohio (PGR) - 41.16, up 1.04 - Breakpoint 40.73

Net to Jump 37% This Year,  TTD Targets 48

 PGR, based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, is an insurance firm providing a variety of  insurance services. Annual revenues: $23.4 billion. PGR drives higher Wednesday to breakout from a 10-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.

  The stock came public in 1972. It has gone through several stock splits.

  So far today, PGR is trading 4.3 million shares, almost double its average daily volume of 2.4 million shares.

  The stock has a beta of 0.71 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, PGR tends to be less volatile than the stock market.

  The stock did well to buck the big drop in the stock market Wednesday.

  PGR reported a rise a rise in premiums in April and a decline in catastrophic losses.

  PGR rose in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart).

  The stock continued to work high gradually in the afternoon and then finished strongly into the final bell.

  Tape Action

PGR's tape action shows the recent block trades.

One can see the price for the blocks edging higher from $40.12 late in the prior session to as high as $41.16 Wednesday.

  A key block trade came late in the session when a massive block of 272,643 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $41.16.

  That was up from the prior block trade near the close in the prior session at $40.12 on 64,975 shares.

   Business

  PGR provides insurance personal, automobile and property.

The company operates through three segments:  Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Property segments.

 The Personal Lines writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles.

The Commercial Lines  writes liability, physical damage and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned  by small businesses.

  It also handles personal and commercial property insurance, personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance.

Charts

  PGR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 25% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders have been steady buyers of the stock this year. The price was not disclosed. They have not done any selling.

  PGR's long-term chart shows the stock making a bear market low at $9.76 back in early 2009.

  The stock then turned up and has been trending steadily higher ever since.

  PGR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $35 back in January to a peak near $40 by March.

  It then formed a cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout Wednesday is impressive and comes with an expansion in volume.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is bullish.

  Earnings Outlook

  This year, analysts are forecasting a robust 37% surge in net to $2.27 a share from $1.66 a year ago.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 18.

  Going out to 2018, the Street predicts a 10% rise in net to $2.49 a share from the anticipated $2.27 this year.

  Net for the next two quarters will be strong.

  Analysts predict a 69% surge in net for the second quarter to 49 cents a share from 29 cents the year before.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 55 cents a share. So, some see chances for a big quarter.

  Net for the third quarter is expected to climb 31% to 47 cents a share from 36 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting PGR for a move to $48 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $38.30.

  TTD rates PGR an average intermediate-term play.

Suitability:  Average Bulls.

        TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Average - PGR has scored some nice gains off its breakouts even though it is an insurance stock with a low beta.

Probability - Earnings Response - Average - PGR has moved higher 4 times after 8 earnings reports that provided a significant move.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Above Average -  PGR has risen an average of 2.5% in May the past five years. It has risen every May

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 18

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears:  Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Large list of breakdown stocks Wednesday as stock market falls sharply. Bears can be venturesome.

TTD's short from Tuesday was Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) at $73.94. The stock declined to $72.75 Wednesday and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) - 11.05, down 1.91

Net Below Street Estimate, TTD Sees Decline to 8.50

  AEO, based in Pittsburgh, sells a variety of clothes. and personal care products. Annual revenues: $3.6 billion. AEO's stock falls sharply on heavy volume Wednesday. The move causes AEO to cut below key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted AEO as a short at our midsession video show  on the Web Wednesday.

  So far today, AEO is trading 28.4 million shares, five  times its average daily volume of 4.7 million shares.

  AEO's decline was triggered when it came in with net for the fiscal first quarter ended in April of 16 cents a share. That was below the 17 cent estimate on the Street.

  AEO had topped the Street estimate eight out of the past nine quarters, with one quarter matching estimates.

  AEO's stock fell in the morning and continued South through most of the day.

  It touched an intraday low of $10.91 in the late afternoon.

  Tape Action

  AEO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $13.03 in the prior session to as low as $11.05 later on Wednesday.

  A key bearish trade came  late on Tuesday when a block of 226,070 shares crossed at $12.96.

  That was down from the prior block at $13.03 on 100,000 shares.

   Business

   AEO sells clothes to men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters Brand and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand.

  AEO operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom. It has some 1,000 retail stores.

  Earnings:

  This fiscal year ending in January of 2018 analysts are forecasting a 1% decline in net to $1.24 a share from $1.25 the year before.

  That estimate could come down further.

Charts:   

  AEO's daily chart shows the stock declining from $16 in February down to around $13 by April. Today, the stock gaps lower with big volume.

  AEO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock declining 20% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AEO for a decline to $8.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $12.30.

Suitability: Aggressive Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response -  Extremely Bearish. Stock rose just 3 times out of the past 13 earnings reports where there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity -- Bearish.  AEO has averaged a decline of 3%  in May over the past 5 years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2017

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)