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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, May 17 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 17 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Two breakouts today and both stocks are reemerging from their bases. Stock market continues to act bearish. Bulls be patient and selective on breakouts, perhaps scaling-in. TTD looks for a consolidation to eventually evolve.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ALK - AVERAGE |
ALK, based in Seattle, provides airline service. Annual revenues: $3.5 billion.
ALK's stock edges out from a six-week flat base today. The stock was one of the few to buck the downdraft of the stock market today. So far today, ALK is trading 764,304 shares. Its average daily volume is 710,000 shares.
ALK's stock has been climbing in recent months moving up from 14 a year ago to 46.
TTD's 5-minute chart of ALK shows the stock gapping higher this morning and clearing its upside resistance line.
The stock has held above the resistance so far.
TTD's clip of the tape shows ALK's big block trades recently.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing modestly from $44.82 to a peak of $46.25 today. Then in the afternoon, the price for the most recent block back off a bit to $46.19.
A key block trade took place in the prior session when 11,800 shares crossed at $45.45. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $45.12. TTD sees the tape action indicating subtle institutional accumulation. 
ALK has two units, Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air Industries, Inc.
The company provides passenger air service. It had 22 million passengers last year. It goes to 90 destinations. It also provides freight and mail services, primarily to and within the state of Alaska and on the West Coast. Horizon operates turboprop and jet aircraft, and its average passenger trip length was 356.
ALK's 12-month performance chart shows the airline stock climbing 175% versus a 25% gain for the S&P 500 index.
ALK's long-term chart shows the stock falling to a low of 10 in 2008 during the bear market. It has since rallied back strongly having made a fourfold move. The stock is close to a making a multi-year high.
ALK's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 to 45. The stock set up a
six-week base. It weathered the turbulation of the big market down day recently very well. It bounced back quickly. 
The stock's breakout today is not decisive. So, it will be important for ALK to show a follow through move soon. Also, volume will need to pickup to confirm good interest in the stock.
ALK's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is very bullish.
This year, analysts forecast a 111% surge in ALK's net to $5.17 a share from $2.45 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 11. TTD sees that as attractive for value investors.
Next year, the Street is forecasting a 12% gain in net to $5.80 a share from the anticipated $5.17 a share this year.
ALK's net for the upcoming second quarter should surge 119% to $1.58 a share from the 72 cents a share a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1.90 a share. So, some are expecting a strong quarter. The company has been showing improving traffic.
TTD is targeting ALK for a move to 55. A protective stop can be placed near 42.50. TTD rates ALK a good intermediate-term play based on its solid earnings growth and reasonable p/e ratio.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Vanguard Primecap Fund with a big 6.8% stake. It has held its position steady. Also, Franklin Growth Fund, 4-star rated, holds a 1.7% stake. ALK has 35.7 million shares outstanding.
Insider Trading: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options, but in most cases they turned around and sold. 10 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Alaska Air Group Inc. - (ALK) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 1 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SGEN - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today even though stock market falls sharply. Bears remain alert and selective. Potential for more on the downside.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
.AUO, based in China, makes flat panel displays. Annual revenues: $11.3 billion. AUO's stock breaks below key support near 10 today. The stock has been acting weak the past several weeks. So far today, AUO is trading 5.4 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
AUO's stock fell sharply at the opening. It worked lower finally hitting a bottom around noon at 9.83. The stock lifted a bit in the afternoon, but is now starting to fade late in the session.
AUO's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks moving down from $10.36 to $9.94. A key trade was a block of 41,200 shares that crossed at $9.99. That was down from the price on the prior block.
TTD sees the tape action indicating clear institutional selling pressure.
AUO's products include thin-film transistor-liquid crystal display panels. Its panels are used in notebook computers and desktop monitors; mobile phones, digital photo frames, digital still cameras, portable navigation display, portable digital video disc players, LCD televisions, and industrial displays.
Although earnings for the second quarter should be up from a loss a year ago, most analysts see about flat results for the year. The Street consensus is for just a 1% rise in net to 96 cents a share from 95 cents a year ago.
The stock's chart shows the breakdown below key support with volume picking up. the TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AUO for a decline to 8 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 11.40.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
