Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, May 14, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Friday - May 18, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 6
Quality of Breakouts - Below Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts and very selective. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Bullish. Major averages remain bullish in all time sectors. Long-term stock market is in a trading range.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PGTI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PGTI, based in North Venice, Fla., makes impact-resistant windows and doors. Annual revenues: $511 million. PGTI's stock breaks out Friday from its 12-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish.
TTD highlighted PGTI as an accumulation play on Thursday in anticipation of a breakout.
Friday, PGTI clicks!
So far today, PGTI is trading a heavy 1.1 million shares, double its average daily volume is 515,000 shares.
PGTI's stock rose sharply in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line at $19.57.
The stock continued higher and reached an intraday peak of $20.50 in the early afternoon. It then trended sideways into the close.
Tape Action
PGTI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $19.02 in the prior session to as high as $20.42.
A key bullish trade came late on Thursday when a block of 17,502 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $19.45.
That was up from the prior block trade at $19.02 on 44,700 shares.
Near the close Friday, a massive block of 185,491 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $20.40.
The trade came on an up tick from the prior trade at $20.35 on 200 shares. That would make the block trade bullish.
Business
The Company's brands include CGI, PGT Windows + Doors and WinDoor.
PGTI serves residential and commercial markets in both new and existing construction. The firm has delivery facilities in Miami, Florida.
PGT Custom Windows + Doors is a manufacturer and supplier of residential impact-resistant glass products.
The company's manufacturing, glass plant, and delivery facilities are in North Venice, Fla.. WinDoor serves five-star resorts, luxury high-rise condominiums and mansions along the U.S. coastline.
Charts
PGTI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 77% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $1.98 to $2 a share recently. They were sellers $12 to $16 a share.
PGTI's long-term chart shows the stock making a bottom at 98 cents back in 2011. The stock then turned and drove steadily higher to a peak at $16.28 by 2015.
The stock then pulled back and went into a long-term consolidation. It broke out last year and has since reached a new high.
PGTI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $14.50 in February to a peak near $19.64 by early March.
The stock then formed a tight flat base.
Thursday, PGTI moved higher and now on Friday it drives higher to breakout.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart ) is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a robust 51% surge in net. They look for net of 92 cents a share, up from 61 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street is predicting a 17% increase in net to $1.08 a share from the anticipated 92 cents this year.
Quarterly earnings growth will show a modest acceleration in growth. That is bullish.
Net for the second quarter is projected to rise 40% to 28 cents a share from the 20 cents the year before.
The highest estimate is at 29 cents a share. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise. The company topped the consensus the past two quarters by 4 cents a share each quarter.
Profits for the third quarter are expected to jump 50% to 24 cents a share from the 16 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion:
TTD is targeting PGTI for a move to $25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $18.80.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Above Average.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. PGTI scored modest gains off some recent breakouts. The stock is now in a long-term up trend.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. PGTI rose 7 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change in price.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. PGTI has averaged a gain of 3.3% in May and 6.9% in June.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
15% |
11/14/2017 |
15.14 |
17.45 |
1/12/2018 |
10% |
6/30/2017 |
12.30 |
13.60 |
8/3/2017 |
13% |
7/7/2016 |
11.02 |
12.47 |
8/3/2016 |
62% |
2/27/2015 |
9.94 |
16.11 |
8/3/2015 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating PGT Innovations Inc. (PGTI) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PAHC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IRTC - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATRA - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RTRX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts Friday. Bears be conservative. Stock market remains in trading range.
JACK, based in San Diego, Ca., operates fast food restaurants specializing in hamburgers. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. JACK falls sharply Friday after reporting disappointing earnings. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted JACK as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
So far today, JACK is trading a heavy 2.5 million shares, almost 5 times its average daily volume of 577,000 shares.
JACK reported net for the fiscal second quarter ending in March of 80 cents a share. That was below the consensus Street estimate of 86 cents a share.
JACK's stock fell sharply in the morning extending the decline of the prior session. The stock moved lower Friday morning and cut below key technical support. It lifted slightly in the final hour.
Tape Action
JACK's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $87 in the prior session to as low as $80.09.
A key bearish trade came on Thursday when a block of 10,035 shares crossed the tape at 83.99.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $87 on 14,422 shares.
Business
JACK operates and franchises Jack in the Box restaurants.
The company has around 2,200 restaurants in 21 states and Guam. The restaurants sell classic burgers such as, Jumbo Jack burgers. Its new product lines are Buttery Jack burgers, and its Brunchfast menu.
It also sells tacos, regular and curly fries, specialty sandwiches, salads and real ice cream shakes.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in September analysts are forecasting a 1% increase in net to $3.93 a share from the $3.88 the year before.
However, net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in June is expected to fall 11% to 88 cents a share from the 99 cents the year before.
Charts:
JACK's daily chart shows the stock falling sharply in the prior session. It then drops hard on Friday and cuts below support. Both sessions show heavy volume.
JACK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 21% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $73 a share. They were sellers at $84.
Strategy Opinion:
TTD is targeting JACK for a decline to $70 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $83.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. JACK rose just 6 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. JACK rose an average of 6% in May but declined 0.4% in June the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JACK - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)